My two for Tuesday very early morning train reads:
• Was Benjamin Graham Skillful or Lucky? (Total Return) see also No evidence that financial experts are make better investment decisions (Rich and Co.)
• Goldman: This Is How S&P 500 Companies Will Use Their Cash in 2016 (Bloomberg) see also Goldman: The U.S. economic expansion isn’t set to die of old age. (Bloomberg)
• Fracking killed Keystone (USAT)
• As GE Joins the $300-Billion Club, How Top-Heavy Is the Market? (Moneybeat) see also Microsoft’s Stock Math: Fewer Shares, Pricier Shares (NYT)
• Beware of Target Date Funds – Their Aim May be Way Off (Alpha Architect) see also Municipal Bonds Shine in Bleak Landscape (WSJ)
some thing to ponder before getting on that plane?
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/11/airplane-maintenance-disturbing-truth
that the low cost provider has been doing all of the heavy maintenance , that hasnt been verified by the FAA, and most of the mechanics arent FAA qualified, or speak/understand/read English. even though all of the manuals are in English.
and watch out here come the robots, now it just wont be just workers it will be every one . wonder when the first all robot company will start?
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/no-one-is-safe-robots-are-going-to-take-everyones-job-even-doctors-and-ceos-new-research-says?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+NP_Top_Stories+%28National+Post+-+Top+Stories%29
course sales for companies will all tank. or fall to 0
aahh yes, the deregulation of the airlines, and now maintenance work…..who could have predicted it? Almost anyone with a brain. Folks, this is what happens when you listen to your corporate chieftains and CEOs and their VPs. Regulations? Who needs them! I guarantee no change and further declining quality in aircraft maintenance until,….wait….you guessed it: crash and killing of innocent people. Oh and by the way, your corporate leaders have already lined their own pockets sufficiently so that they are now NOT flying on the “public” planes that you or I fly on – they all have their corporate jets! Welcome to a critical life-and-death industry “privatized” for your convenience and the dollars saved on maintenance and oversight. And when the crash happens, and I know it will, who will held responsible? The “government” – – of course for lack of enforcing the few regulations left after the Reagan revolution has run its full course.
The Airline Deregulation Act is from 1978 – before Reagan. He did cut regulations even more, but this is not a good example of problems caused by Reagan.
There is an excellent book that discusses the many problems of the airline industry. Attention All Passengers – The Airlines’ Dangerous Descent — And How To Reclaim Our Skies by William J. McGee. There is an NPR review at – http://www.npr.org/books/titles/155838377/attention-all-passengers-the-airlines-dangerous-descent-and-how-to-reclaim-our-s
In 2011, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer (who worked with Senator Kennedy on airline deregulation in the 1970s) wrote:
What does the industry’s history tell us? Was this effort worthwhile? Certainly it shows that every major reform brings about new, sometimes unforeseen, problems. No one foresaw the industry’s spectacular growth, with the number of air passengers increasing from 207.5 million in 1974 to 721.1 million last year. As a result, no one foresaw the extent to which new bottlenecks would develop: a flight-choked Northeast corridor, overcrowded airports, delays, and terrorist risks consequently making air travel increasingly difficult. Nor did anyone foresee the extent to which change might unfairly harm workers in the industry. Still, fares have come down. Airline revenue per passenger mile has declined from an inflation-adjusted 33.3 cents in 1974, to 13 cents in the first half of 2010. In 1974 the cheapest round-trip New York-Los Angeles flight (in inflation-adjusted dollars) that regulators would allow: $1,442. Today one can fly that same route for $268. That is why the number of travelers has gone way up. So we sit in crowded planes, munch potato chips, flare up when the loudspeaker announces yet another flight delay. But how many now will vote to go back to the “good old days” of paying high, regulated prices for better service? Even among business travelers, who wants to pay “full fare for the briefcase?”[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act#Effects
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I don’t.care who started airline deregulation, that is a side issue. The fact is that people are flying on planes that are being maintained by some unqualified ppl. Redirecting won’t make the issue go away. Corporaions are not the place to regulate for safety reasons. It is absolutely wrong.
yep fares came down. but are being more than made up in fees. just wait fee to have a seat with a seat belt, or a fee to talk to a flight attendant, or a fee to use the restroom. and given them a chance i am sure they will invent new ones.
I don’t.care who started airline deregulation, that is a side issue.
Then you should not have mentioned it.
I was providing more accurate information and more information from an industry critic, but if you are opposed to accurate information, there is no hope for you.
If you find something that you think is inaccurate in the book, I would be interested in looking at your suggestion.
Attention All Passengers – The Airlines’ Dangerous Descent — And How To Reclaim Our Skies by William J. McGee. There is an NPR review at – http://www.npr.org/books/titles/155838377/attention-all-passengers-the-airlines-dangerous-descent-and-how-to-reclaim-our-s
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hm, what the Taylor rule says interest fates should be?
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/11/what-the-taylor-rules-says
no.. we just must raise rates, so that we can tank the economy, and blame Obumer
When the next recession hits the GOP Media Machine will blame it in Obama no matter when it happens.
They blamed the housing bubble on the depression era Fannie and Freddie, not Wisconsin Ownership Society.
new bubble in commercial real estate?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/11/wolf-richter-fed-trips-over-eye-popping-commercial-real-estate-bubble-accidentally-looks-sees-early-signs-of-search-for-yield.html
wonder exactly what sort of real estate this is? apartments? cause i dont know to many businesses that seem to need to grow their buildings much since they arent supposed to be adding employees right?
Real estate is one of the last areas companies can now cut costs. I know of one firm in town that is doing away with assigned cubicles and offices altogether as they move into new, smaller space. Instead they are turning their work place into high school as they assign the students, excuse me, employees, lockers to store their stuff. Each day when they come into the office, they are then supposed to find a cubicle to work in. They are supplying cubicles for 70% of the staff since many are out of the office each day.
and some companies have done away with it, by sending workers home to work. found that real estate wasnt worth the cost they paid for it. so why would there be a bubble in it, if companies dont need for office space? cause there isnt all that much building of new hotels/resorts is there? but with the great home bust, maybe its apartments, since people have to live some where
Melting permafrost is releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at an alarming rate — and it could have devastating effects
http://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-is-unlocking-carbon-stores-long-locked-in-permafrost-2015-10
The cut taxes to stimulate the economy, and cut spending to balance the budget.
and that spending cut, offsets the stimulation that the spending cut did.
Re: Target Date funds
As I am getting to the age where I can start to see retirement on the horizon, I have been looking at what do with our money in retirement. I have been astonished at how little thinking has gone into this in the multi-trillion dollar financial asset business. Only a handful of individuals seem to have given it a great deal of thought (starting with Bengen). As usual, the big financial players seem to be largely MIA for useful, low cost approaches based on something better than Bengen’s initial cut at a 4% rule for withdrawals. I am amazed at how much I get coming across my kitchen table from big financial firms that tout the 4% rule as the golden rule.
Target Date funds, when low-fee, have largely solved the retirement investing problem in the accumulation phase for most investors. They address many of the behavioral problems and turn it into a savings problem that people should be better positioned to address in their budgets, as long as they have adequate income.
However, for many people retirement is a much more complex period financially with several different stages and little opportunity to make up for financial challenges by addressing it with additional income from jobs. I think this is the BIG financial challenge of the next 30 years. The Target Date funds are generally structured to have low volatility after people turn 70. Thus will work for people who have saved a lot of money, but may not be effective for people who have not. I think this is going to be a major opportunity for good RIAs to shine over the next couple of decades. I have little hope that the main stream financial sector will do anything but use it as an opportunity to extract as much money as possible and then discarding their clients when they run out of money.
well that is the SOP for main stream finance isnt it? extracting as much profit from their clients, while no delivering much if any thing .
GOP Media Machine tells Jeb not to apologize when he’s wrong.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/11/07/cheese-eating-job-creators-2/
I HATE Gubmint
http://acasignups.net/15/11/09/kentucky-am-i-actually-supposed-sympathize-dennis-blackburn
…as part of his campaign rhetoric; he made repealing Medicaid expansion (and shutting down the kynect ACA exchange) a major part of his campaign for Governor. EVERYONE in Kentucky knew this (or damned well should have known it). Yet, Mr. Blackburn voted for the guy who had explicitly promised to take away his healthcare coverage… and now he’s confused and scared…
i suspect that the voter (and lots of others) think that business men create jobs. no thats not their job. they think that keeping costs low is their job. no thats not their job.
their job is to make a profit.
nothing else matters.
if they need workers top make profit they will hire workers, if they dont need them they wont.
if they dont need to keep costs low (they are in a monopoly) they wont. if they have to compete (which they hate cause its more work, and harder to accomplish) they will control costs.
but none of this means they have any more skill in running government than any one off the street does.
i know the old conservative joke went some thing like
i am from government, and i am here to help you.
well i have a corollary
i am from business, and i am here to make a profit from you
Large Companies Game H-1B Visa Program, and Jobs Leave the U.S
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/us/large-companies-game-h-1b-visa-program-leaving-smaller-ones-in-the-cold.html
Paul Ryan, you keep squawking about how you’re going to fix the broken House. Reform immigration.
you mean the GOP controlled house is broken? no that couldnt be it could it? and the h1b program as it today isnt here to do any thing but export jobs to other countries. it really has no other purpose
travel is about to get harder
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-2016-a-drivers-license-may-not-be-enough-id-to-board-a-plane-2015-11-05
getting on airplane may require more than your states driver license. seems back in 2005 or so, the Congress passed a new law that made id much more secure. but mostly that hasnt mattered until 2016. but then it will impact your ability to get on an airplane
when Congress is in a hole, they punt?
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/11/09-budgetary-sleight-of-hand?rssid=Ben+Bernanke
seems they are a in a bind, they need funds to fund highways. and raising the gas tax (last done back in the early 90s) isnt an option. so they need some slight of hand to do it. so they are going to use the feds capital to do it. course a lot of money goes from the fed to the treasury every year (about 1/2 trillion dollars). but hey they didnt have to raise taxes.