Hey, tomorrow is Thanksgiving, which means we have your pre-Turkey day travel reads teed up:
• S&P 500 Profits Fall $25 Billion in First Three Quarters of 2015 (Bloomberg)
• The Master List of Stores That Are Staying Closed on Thanksgiving Day (Brad’s Deals) see also The Grinch Sizes Up Holiday Spending Forecasts (Bloomberg View)
• The Fallacy of “Dr. Copper” (Value Plays)
• Consulting & The Smart Money Herd Mentality (awealthofcommonsense)
• Bernanke: Can China be like Chattanooga? Shifting from industry to services (Brookings)
• Calpers’ Hidden Private-Equity Fees: $3.4 Billion Disclosure by the largest pension fund in the U.S. stokes debate over whether such investments are worth the expense (WSJ)
• Strong Dollar, Weak Retailers (Gadfly)
• A Car Dealers Won’t Sell: It’s Electric (NYT) see also Electric cars and the coal that runs them (Washington Post)
• Most of What You Learned in Econ 101 Is Wrong (Bloomberg View)
• Pumpkin Pie in Miami: Thanksgiving Flight Patterns (The Upshot) see also Will Your Holiday Flight Be On Time? (fivethirtyeight.com)
What are you reading?
Most Disproportionately Common Thanksgiving Side Dish by Region
Source: FiveThirtyEight
Silly me for reading the comments to that Bloomberg View piece about Econ 101, but it really amazes me the extent to which economic theory as taught in introductory classes is treated as a 100% true depiction of the real world. For many, the idea that markets (as they exist in reality) are “free” and infallible is a religion which cannot be challenged and need not be proven.
We won’t be able to fix the politics of this country without improving the content of beginning economics classes.
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”
Yes and adding to the comments on Bloomberg would really be an exercise in shouting against the wind.
The minimum wage is argued at a more macro level on these pages by . My own micro micro experience is I pay a starting wage of $15 because it is a living wage and I find you get the employee you deserve. My crew works hard and they are loyal. If you want employees that resent and steal just pay them $5.
Other then that, what Noah was trying to say is that teachers of econ 101 should inform students that they are getting a simplistic view of the moving parts and it does not qualify them to design a machine. As far as macro, well that’s just ideology, and even if there is an objective reality it needs to be approached like a general religion course.
There appears to be a lot of bafflement out there about why Millenials are still living at home. However, I have never seen anybody comment on one obvious reason – increasing average house size. Fifty years ago, you would probably have been raising your 2.2 children in an 800 to 1,500 sf home. Since then the median new home sizes have been steadily rising so that they are now well over 2,000 sf. As a result, there is room for multiple adults to occupy the space without tripping over each other. You are much less likely to toss your 23 year old out into the street if you have 2,500 sf of living space than 1,000 sf. The bursting housing bubble has also taken the glamor out of owning a home while later marriage puts of the necessity of living outside the house. Student debt can also be paid off easier when living at home. But ultimately, the physical space is now there in many cases to allow for it.
http://jedkolko.com/2015/11/23/why-millennials-still-live-with-their-parents/
http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalmedavgsqft.pdf
Describing the Decline of Capital per Worker
The last post I did on the composition of productivity growth documented that recently we appear to be using productivity to reduce our capital/worker, as opposed to increasing the growth of output per worker. The BLS measure of {K/L} is actually shrinking in 2011-2013. That is an anomaly in the post-war era, and seems worth digging into further. Here is some more detail on what is driving the negative growth in {K/L}. ….
AP FACT CHECK: Most GOP candidates flunk climate science
When it comes to climate science, two of the three Democratic presidential candidates are A students, while most of the Republican contenders are flunking, according to a panel of scientists who reviewed candidates’ comments. …
To try to eliminate possible bias, the candidates’ comments were stripped of names and given randomly generated numbers, so the professors would not know who made each statement they were grading. Also, the scientists who did the grading were chosen by professional scientific societies. …
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton had the highest average score at 94. …
All eight put Cruz at the bottom of the class. ….
what do you expect, they arent scientists!
To all those Europeans who want to end Russian sanctions, get them to join the fight to “Defeat terror” and get in their to cut deals with Putin…
http://www.businessinsider.com/gazprom-cuts-off-gas-supplies-to-ukraine-2015-11
Putin’s response to the downed fighter is more anti-aircraft weapons in Syria. LOL.
http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-sends-air-defense-missiles-to-syria-to-deter-turkey-2015-11
Yeah, You’re right to cut back on Defense spending in Europe. Let those bastard American’s deal with it.
NATO countries have similar “capabilities” to Russia in most first world weapons welfare programs.
Russia moved the equivalent of a US Navy Ticonderoga class cruiser for air and missile defenses over Syria. It is deploying a S-400 land based air defense system with unknown batteries. It will provide bomber missions with fighter interceptor cover.
This is basic cold war theater air defenses. It reflects Russia’s plan to provide Syrian government with air support despite interference from NATO efforts to keep al Qaeda in the Sunni fight to make Syria a failed state.
Spending more on NATO weapons welfare is irrelevant.
changing health insurance system?
http://khn.org/news/as-hmos-dominate-alternatives-become-more-expensive/
oddly enough HMO’s seem to be taking over. big surprise that is, its about cost containment. even though my employer doesnt offer any. we have 2 PPOs and an EPO (sort of like an HMO).
and since every one was so fixated on cost containment why should we be surprised when thats the result we get? and considering that most of cant afford to go to the doctor without insurance, the cost containment will continue and get stronger. course a lot of the containment feature, is just no going at all, unless you have too
The Strange Truth Behind Presidential Turkey Pardons
Updated November 25, 2015
The annual presidential turkey pardoning event at the White House, which takes place again today, is a peculiar one. Presiding over his sixth one last year, even President Obama seemed confused by it all.
“It is a little puzzling that I do this every year,” Obama said, “but I will say that I enjoy it, because with all the tough stuff that swirls around in this office, it’s nice once in a while to just say, ‘Happy Thanksgiving.’ ”
….
http://www.npr.org/2015/11/25/457253194/the-strange-truth-behind-presidential-turkey-pardons
Another celebrity rips Trump.
http://www.businessinsider.com/seth-meyers-on-donald-trump-false-claims-2015-11
1) Really? Where are you guys with all the other Republicans who make shit up?
2) This only emoldens his base.
pension malfeasance?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/11/calpers-pokes-board-in-the-eye-by-releasing-private-equity-carry-fee.html
now this is a pension, i am going to guess it could happen in a 401k or IRA too
you remember that pharmaceutical company that raised the price of one of their drugs a few hundred percent?
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/turing-reneges-drug-price-cut-rivals-version-sells-35418531
seems they reneged on their price cut.
I’m shocked! Shocked!