MiB: David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff, Merrill Lynch

This week on our Masters in Business interview, we speak with David Rosenberg, currently Chief Economist/Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, formerly Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch.

Rosie describes how his role as an economist and strategist shifted dramatically once he moved from the Sell Side (as Brokerages are called) to the Buy Side (asset managers, mutual funds, etc.)  It required a radical rethink of how he thought about both risk and what one should do when you discover you are wrong.

If you listen to the podcast portion, you can hear Rosie and I goofing around, as we are joined by economist Richard Yamarone. We have some fun.

Listen to the show live on Bloomberg Radio at 10am and 6pm and throughout the weekend. The full podcast is available on iTunesSoundCloud and on Bloomberg.  Earlier podcasts can be found on iTunes and at BloombergView.com.

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  1. Willy2 commented on Nov 16

    – Rosie makes one BIG mistake. The Baby Boom did NOT start in 1945 but actually already in 1935. That means that the first baby boomer retired in the year 2000 !!!!

    Source: Harry S. Dent.

    ~~~

    ADMIN: What is referred to as the Baby boom in the USA is, by definition, is strictly a post WW2 phenomena. Dent has no idea what he is saying

    • Willy2 commented on Nov 18

      I am TRULY OFFENDED by the words “Dent has no idea what he is saying” !!!!!!!!!!

      NO. It’s one B. Ritholtz who has no idea what he is saying. Seems that one B. Ritholtz hasn’t paid too much attention to Dent’s excellent work. Dent’s market timing is horrible but his work on the relationship between demograpics & spending (driving the economy) is TRULY excellent.

      Yes, from 1945 up to 1961, the amount of babies born in the US increased each year. That’s also known as the “Baby Boom”. Correct. That’s the OFFICIAL definition. But the facts as presented by/researched by Harry Dent undermine that official definition.

      Dent adjusts the US birth statistics for immigration & emigration and then a different picture emerges. When e.g. a 30 year old canadian person moves from Canada to the US in the year 2000 then one has to move one birth from the column “Canada, 1970” to the column “USA, 1970”. Taking those adjustments into account then the “Baby Boom” that supposedly started in 1945, actually already started in 1935/1934. Then the immigration adjusted amount of babies born every year here in the US actually started to increase from 1935/1934 and that rising trend only CONTINUED in the time frame 1945 – 1961.

      That’s why for me the US baby boom already started in 1935, no matter what the official definition is. And then some parts of the economic puzzle start to make MUCH more sense, are a much better fit.
      – The US labor participation rate peaked in/around the year 2000. (think: Baby boomers starting to retire. Remember: 2000 = 1935 + 65)
      – The overall trend of Median Houshold Income was (from 1965 up to 2000) UP and it peaked in the year 2000. Even the 2007 peak was (slightly) lower than the 2000 peak. (think: baby boomers (from 1935) starting to retire).

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