Source: Bloomberg
Hiking Without a Map
December 15, 2015 1:00pm by Barry Ritholtz
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. The Compound Media, Inc., an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers Please see disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures/
Apparently – this time it IS different.
Is bulge of retiring baby boomers they underlying cause? e.g. Low wage inflation, low labor participation rate?
Doesn’t the labor participation rate look at people UNDER retirement age? And how would a bulge of retirees withdrawing from the work force cause wages to go down rather than up?
As fashionable as it is these days, not every economic woe can be blamed on the existence of the baby boomers.
They need to slowly target a higher rate of inflation. Maybe end up at 4%, moving up 0.5% increments. Take maybe 20 years. Or when inflation does come, tame it back down to 4% or so and leave it there.
Sorry, but the labor force rate is rising. Only because of the slowing of the labor force rate is the “official” number falling. Go with ZPOP. It adjusts out the nominal population numbers in the labor force. The current ZPOP is consistent with rate hikes of the past.
Wage growth isn’t low either. It is accelerating. A. Real Wages are rising with the damaging oil price inflation ending, 2. government lag on nominal wage inflation. Period. Look at the last 3 expansions, especially 86-87 and 05-06.
Wages: No acceleration with this data set:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=2i3w
I’m not sure I’m looking at anything bad here, I just don’t see the acceleration.