From the “here we go again” files: This week, Barron’s (sort of) endorses Ohio Governor John Kasich, as the only adult amongst all of the GOP nominees.
We looked at a very similar issue (again courtesy of Barron’s) with Trump v. Clinton, back on March 5 of this year.
Longtime readers already know my thoughts on this: We have no idea in advance who — as President — will be better for the economy or the stock market. And as history teaches us, it probably matters much less (short term, anyway) than we imagine.
As a reminder, the ideologues used stock market fears to scare people about Obama — you know, the Muslim/Kenyan/Socialist who was going to destroy the Dow — just before the market tripled. And before him, George W. Bush was going to blow out the deficits, kill employment, and cause other problems (some of which actually happened) but — and here is my key point — the market nearly doubled anyway.
So much for those advocating we make our investments based on political considerations.
Here is this week’s Barron’s about the third place GOP delegate vote getter:
“Kasich (rhymes with basic) outshines [both Trump & Clinton]. And in the event of a contested convention, he has a powerful advantage: He’s the only GOP candidate who beats Clinton in a head-to-head contest in the polls. “With John Kasich, you have a candidate who lines up almost perfectly with many investors,” says Chris Krueger, a Washington strategist with Guggenheim Securities. “He has a track record as a pragmatist from his time as governor, and he knows the markets from his stint as an investment banker at Lehman Brothers.”
Unlike Clinton, Kasich has a sensible across-the-board tax-cutting agenda for corporations, individuals, and investors. And as a Republican president working with a presumably GOP-controlled Congress, he would be a more effective leader. After all, he spent six years as the chairman of the House Budget Committee, so he knows how to broker a deal.”
To which I reply, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Politics may be the only sport where participants actually believe theirs is the only one that matters. Not to be too cynical, but for the most part, it looks like a bunch of self-aggrandizing ideological monkeys nakedly pursuing power for its own sake.
You know what my views are; make up your own minds . . .
• Barron’s: Whose Better for Investors, Trump or Clinton? (March 5, 2016)
• Why politics and investing don’t mix (Feb 6, 2011)
• Was the ’00-03 Crash Bush’s Fault? ’09 Obama’s? (March 5, 2009)
• Ideology Is Killing Your Investment Returns (Feb 10, 2014)
• Politics and Investing Don’t Mix (Feb 17, 2016)
Kasich: The Best Pick for Markets and the Economy
Governor’s plans on taxes, spending, trade, and other issues are far more sensible than Trump’s or Cruz’
Barron’s April 2, 2016