Succinct Summations for the week ending June 7th, 2019
Positives:
1. Markets rally nearly 5% on expectations of a July Rate cut; DJIA gained > 1000 points this week.
2. Wages increased by 3.1 percent year-over-year.
3. Unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. Jobless claims came in 218k for the week keeping the 4-week average at 215k.
4. Home mortgage refinance apps rose 6.0% w/o/w after previous decrease of 6.0%.
5. ISM non-mfg index rose from 55.5 to 56.9 in May, above the expected 55.8.
6. Non-farm productivity rose 3.4% in Q1 meeting expectations.
7. Same store sales increased 5.8% w/o/w, above the previous increase of 5.7%
Negatives:
1. Markets have consistently over-estimated the odds of future rate cuts.
2. Non-farm payrolls came in at 75k, below the expected 180k.
3. Home mortgage purchase apps fell 2.0% w/o/w after previous decrease of 1.0%.
4. ADP employment report shows private payrolls at 27k for May, below expected 175k; Challenger job report shows layoffs at 58,577 in May, greater than previous 40,023.
5. Exports and imports both fell 2.2% m/o/m bringing international trade deficit to -$50.8B.
6. Construction spending fell -1.2% y/o/y after previous increase of 0.5%.
7. PMI manufacturing came in at 50.5 for May, below the previous 52.6
Thanks, Matt
