My mid-week morning train WFH reads:
• The Worst 6 Months Ever For Financial Markets. The period ending June 30, 2022 ranks in the worst 3% of all 6 month returns since 1926. The only 6 month performance numbers that were worse than what we just lived through occurred during the Great Depression, 1937 crash, WWII, 1970s bear market, bursting of the dot-com bubble and 2008 crash. (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• We’re Not Already In a Recession: We believe a recession is coming but the US is clearly not in one yet. In the first five months of the year, manufacturing production is up at a 6.6% annual rate, nonfarm payrolls are up at an average monthly pace of 488,000, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.6% from 3.9%. Meanwhile, in April, consumer spending and real personal income were at record highs. If this is a recession, we could use more recessions. (Real Clear Markets) see also We’re Probably Not in a Recession Right Now: You probably noticed that things are very weird right now. The stock market is imploding but the economic data is still pretty okay. We’re probably not in a recession right now, but the market is acting as if one is imminent. (Irrelevant Investor)
• Unconvincing price moves as the economy cools: Keep in mind that bad news about the economy can be good news for inflation. And so if decelerating manufacturing activity is causing prices to come down, then it’s the bad news the Fed is looking for. (TKer)
• Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy Workers and employers moved away from the coasts to middle of country and Florida, sparking swifter recoveries there (Wall Street Journal)
• Why This Crypto Crash Is Different : There can be no return to the highly leveraged, fractionally reserved cryptocurrency system whose illusory riches are now giving way to real losses. (CoinDesk)
• ‘God, Hwang and Archegos’: Insider Details of Collapsed Firm Revealed in Lawsuit: Former employee sues to recover $50 million in lost bonuses Lawsuit claims family office operated as ‘personality cult.’ (Bloomberg)
• The Lost Glamour of the Department-Store Restaurant: Pot pies and fanciful desserts made shopping delicious. (Atlas Obscura)
• Can Dual-Use Solar Panels Provide Power and Share Space With Crops? Companies like BlueWave are betting on it. But the technology has its critics. (New York Times)
• The Happiness Data That Wrecks a Freudian Theory: In a five-decade study involving more than 2,000 participants, researchers found that success doesn’t, in fact, make people unhappy (Wall Street Journal)
• America’s unique, enduring gun problem, explained: The factors that lead to tragedies like those in Highland Park, Tulsa and Uvalde are deeply ingrained in US politics, culture, and law. (Vox)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week Perth Tolle with founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, index provider and sponsor of the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF. The first-of-its-kind strategy uses personal and economic freedom metrics as the primary factors in its investment process. Prior to forming Life + Liberty Indexes, Perth was a private wealth advisor at Fidelity Investments in Los Angeles and Houston and had lived and worked in Beijing and Hong Kong, where her observations led her to explore the relationship between freedom and markets.
The Growth in U.S. House Prices by State
Source: Miller Samuel
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