10 Tuesday AM Reads

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

The Bulls’ Worst Recession Fear: There Won’t Be One: There is justification now to go against Wall Street’s consensus forecast that 2023 is certain to bring a recession. The corollary is that the Federal Reserve will reverse course, begin to ease monetary policy, and power a new bull market. The strongest support for this scenario is the yield curve, the trace of yields on Treasury securities across maturities. (Barron’s) see also After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023: Recession, rate hikes risk spurring earnings slowdown in 2023 Question marks remain over how Big Tech and China will fare. (Bloomberg)

Over a Decade, Rolex Watches Outperformed the Stock Market: The investment return of Rolexes was higher than real estate, the stock market, or even gold over a 10-year period, from 2011 to 2021, according to Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of Bob’s Watches, an online marketplace for the resale of watches, with a focus on Rolexes. (Barron’s)

The 2023 outlook research report dump: Knock yourselves out (FT Alphaville) see also  Big Banks Predict Recession, Fed Pivot in 2023: More than two-thirds of economists at 23 major financial institutions expect the U.S. to have a downturn this year (Wall Street Journal)

US Bond Performance Shows Fed Isn’t Behind the Curve: Contrary to popular belief, debt investors are growing more confident n the central bank’s ability to contain inflation. (Bloomberg)

2023 Will Be the Year of the Electric SUV: A parade of cargo-friendly and affordable electric cars are coming next year, though it will still be tough to buy one. (Bloomberg) see also Tesla’s worst year ever in the markets still leaves it an expensive auto stock: Even after this year’s record 65% drop, the electric-car maker’s meteoric surge during 2020 and 2021 has left it with stock-market value of $389 billion, more than Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Co., Stellantis NV and Ford Motor Co. combined. (Fortune)

How the marijuana ‘green rush’ fell apart: A cannabis glut in several states has depressed prices for legal pot, pushing small businesses into turmoil. (Washington Post)

Why Petulant Oligarchs Rule Our World. When an immensely rich man, accustomed not just to getting whatever he wants but also to being a much-admired icon, finds himself not just losing his aura but becoming a subject of widespread ridicule, of course he lashes out erratically, and in so doing makes his problems even worse. (New York Times) see also Get Yourself Some “No Men” What happens to people who become so powerful, wealthy, and influential that no one is willing to tell them they are wrong? It’s a historical problem that has existed for as long as individuals have achieved great success. (The Big Picture)

The Most Dangerous People on the Internet in 2022: From SBF to the GRU, these were the most disruptive forces of online chaos this year. (Wired)

How Adrian Fontes plans to protect Arizona’s elections from ‘Maga fascists’ The Democrat who defeated a hard-right extremist in the midterms to be the next secretary of state doesn’t mince words (The Guardian) see also Extremists at the vanguard of a siege: The Jan. 6 panel’s last word The voluminous final report from the Capitol attack committee dug deep into the unspoken alliance between Trump allies and far-right groups that showed up to riot.(Politico)

NASA’s Stellar 2022: Spectacular Images From Historic Year in Space (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with John Mack, former CEO of Morgan Stanley. He was the architect of the firm’s merger with Dewan Witter and then returned as CEO to lead the firm through the financial crisis. He is the author of a new autobiography, “Up Close and All In: Life Lessons from a Wall Street Warrior.”


ETF industry market share (%). Top 5 issuers = 87% market share

Source: @nategeraci


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