My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:
• Attitudes have shifted in 3 major ways: 1. The Fed has become less hawkish, 2. The economy has become less likely to go into recession, 3. The stock market is not doomed to crater. (TKer)
• How Cheap (or Expensive) is the Stock Market Right Now? Things look a tad rich relative to the past 25 years but more or less in line with the averages. (A Wealth of Common Sense) see also A Bull or a Bear Market? It Doesn’t Matter. Stocks still haven’t returned to their last peak, and our columnist is in the camp that says this isn’t a bull market yet. But he’s buying stock anyway. (New York Times)
• Why People Are Still Splurging Even as Inflation Bites: A Harris Poll labeled the scrimp/splurge phenomenon a “split-brain” budget, but others have called it “the lipstick effect.” That’s because research has shown that lipstick sales tend to pop during recessions, even when consumer spending is otherwise depressed. Buying decisions are less a matter of “or” but “and,” according to McKinsey, a pattern often seen during economic downturns. (Barron’s)
• Zombie Mortgages Could Force Some Homeowners Into Foreclosure: Homeowners say they are getting bills and foreclosure threats on second mortgages they thought were taken care of long ago. (Wall Street Journal) see also A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead: The Federal Home Loan Bank system provides billions to banks curtailing mortgage lending, and millions to its executives. (Businessweek)
• What Really Brings People Back to the Office? The Easiest Commute. “One of the questions businesses are asking is ‘How am I going to get my employees back into the office?’” says Mike Slattery, director of tristate research at CBRE. “Part of that is providing light and air, more attractive amenities, and a really good location. On the other hand, if you can’t offer your workers all those bells and whistles, at least you can give them an office close to transit.” (Curbed)
• The Moral Crisis of America’s Doctors: The corporatization of health care has changed the practice of medicine, causing many physicians to feel alienated from their work. (New York Times) see also Documents show how conservative doctors influenced abortion, trans rights. A small group of conservative doctors has sought to shape the nation’s most contentious policies on abortion and transgender rights by promoting views rejected by the medical establishment as scientific fact. After long struggling to attract members, the American College of Pediatricians gained outsize political influence in recent years, primarily by using conservative media as a megaphone in its quest to position the group as a reputable source of information., (Washington Post)
• Customer Ratings Have Become Meaningless. ‘People Hand Out 5 Stars Like It’s Candy.’ Riddled with confusion and guilt, Americans are handing out perfect Uber and Airbnb scores; ‘Don’t have to earn it anymore.’ (Wall Street Journal)
• The dozens of attorneys who have defended Trump since 2016: Trump seems to have an unusual number of lawyers, and seems to move quickly through those lawyers. He has an unusual number of legal issues – two special counsel investigations, two impeachments, a criminal conviction for his company and a criminal indictment in Manhattan and dozens of other civil suits. (Washington Post) see also Oath Keepers attorney is found incompetent to stand trial in Jan. 6 case: A volunteer for Lawyers for Trump, Kellye SoRelle became Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes’s girlfriend and a key post-2020 election contact with ‘Stop the Steal’ groups So much incompetence to go with all the stupid. (Washington Post)
• ‘Bull Durham’ turns 35: Revisiting the most famous mound visit in baseball movie history: It’s the present people have come to expect from someone behind one of the most famous scenes in sports movie history. Pitching coach Larry Hockett’s sage advice during a meeting on the mound — “candlesticks always make a nice gift” — remains one of the most-quoted lines from the cinematic love letter to the minor leagues. (The Athletic)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with NBC News and former WSJ reporter Gretchen Morgenson. The Pulitizer prize winning investigative journalist is the author of a new book, These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America.
Even if the Fed hikes rates in July to 5.5%, we seem to be a lot closer to the end of the rate cycle than the beginning.
Source: @TimmerFidelity
