My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:
• There Is No “Stealth Fiscal Stimulus” The federal budget deficit is widening thanks to falling capital gains tax receipts and soaring net interest interest payments (including via the Federal Reserve). None of this is likely to boost PCE. (The Overshoot)
• The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think: The United States is pivoting away from fossil fuels and toward wind, solar and other renewable energy, even in areas dominated by the oil and gas industries. (New York Times) see also Behind All the Talk, This Is What Big Oil Is Actually Doing: The industry can point to efforts to reduce emissions and pursue green energy technologies. But those efforts pale in comparison with what they are doing to maintain and enhance oil and gas production. As the International Energy Agency put it, investment by the industry in clean fuels “is picking up” but “remains well short of where it needs to be.” (New York Times)
• Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market? If we look at valuations going back to 1990, out of slightly more than 400 monthly observations, the CAPE ratio has been below the long-term average for just 22 months. That’s around 5% of the time. Mind you, this is not valuations at screaming buy levels, just below average. (Wealth of Common Sense)
• The Summer Women Flexed Their Spending Power: By turning out in groups, women created a multiplier effect and propelled watershed success for the ‘Barbie’ movie, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Weight-Loss Drug Frenzy Is Outrunning the Company Behind It: Ozempic and Wegovy have propelled Novo Nordisk to Europe’s second-most valuable company. Now it faces a struggle to keep up. (Bloomberg)
• The Agribusiness Pact: The “reprimarization” of the Brazilian economy: This phenomenon has evolved into a consensus state policy program spanning two decades, bearing significant socioeconomic and environmental repercussions. The swift financialization of agriculture has transformed tangible assets, such as commodities and land, into targets for speculative investment. (Phenomenal World) see also Global Race for Lithium Lands in Rural Brazil: International mining companies arrive in Jequitinhonha Valley, promising development and provoking concerns about local compensation and water scarcity. (NACLA)
• Yes, there is a cure for bullshit The patron saint of calling BS, Harry Frankfurt, died watching his philosophy become more urgent than ever. (Nautilus)
• The Owls Are Not What They Seem: The birds possess even uncannier powers than we’ve imagined. (The Atlantic)
• How to Avoid Looking Like a Fool, Iowa State Fair Edition: Presidential candidates find the annual fair can be an obstacle course. Don’t flip the pork chops too fast, watch out for the corn dogs. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Most Emotional Video Game Music in the Unlikeliest of Places The Eleanor Rigby of video game music. (IGN)
Be sure to check out our latest Masters in Business interview with Ted Seides, founder of Capital Allocators, an advisory platform to managers and allocators. Previously, he worked under David Swensen at the Yale Investments Office, where he invested directly with three of Yale’s managers. We discuss his famous bet with Warren Buffett about whether a selection of hedge funds could beat the S&P 500 over a decade. (Buffett won).
GDPNow model for real GDP growth in Q3 2023 is 4.1%
Source: GDPNow
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