My morning train WFH reads:
• The Generational Paradigm Shift Taking Over Markets: For most of the 20th century, stocks and bond yields moved in opposite directions. They’re doing it again after a two-decade break. (Wall Street Journal)
• How Tiger Global, one of the biggest backers of startups over the past decade, fell to earth: As the firm grew, Tiger prioritized speed and began writing checks at a more rapid clip. One former Tiger employee recalls a partner taking a 10-hour red-eye to visit the offices of a prospective portfolio startup, crunching numbers, then meeting with the founders in the morning. Within 24 hours, that partner was already on a flight back home. (Fortune)
• Why Managed Futures Funds Are Ripe for Replication: Research shows that replication, rather than investments in single manager hedge funds, may make sense for most allocators, writes Andrew Beer. (Institutional Investor)
• Is Now the Time to Invest in Emerging Markets? Emerging-markets stock ETFs offer exposure to higher-growth markets, but they also can be volatile. Here is a look at the pros and cons of these investments. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Ground-Floor Window Into What’s Ailing Downtowns: City centers may have to be reimagined to solve the problem of vacant storefronts. (New York Times) see also Real-Estate Doom Loop Threatens America’s Banks: Regional banks’ exposure to commercial real estate is more substantial than it appears. (Wall Street Journal)
• Generative AI and intellectual property: If you put all the world’s knowledge into an AI model and use it to make something new, who owns that and who gets paid? This is a completely new problem that we’ve been arguing about for 500 years. (Benedict Evans)
• The Glorious and Mysterious Fast-Food Chain That Could Be Coming to Your Town: Cheap burgers. A gazillion milkshakes. A weird bacon thing. Say hello to Cook Out. (Slate)
• Musk Melts Down Over Ad Revenue, Amplifies Conspiracies, Threatens Lawsuit In Typical Weekend: A weekend meltdown full of conspiracies and threats is now a routine occurrence for the billionaire Twitter owner. (Vice)
• A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why. For nearly as long as Medicare has existed, it has been a notorious budget buster, alarming a wide range of politicians and budget experts. In 1983, Ronald Reagan said: “The need for action now is clear. Health care costs are climbing so fast they may soon threaten the quality of care and access to care which Americans enjoy.” In 1995, the Medicare trustees warned. If the rate of growth had kept up, the dotted line shows how much Medicare would have gone on to spend on each beneficiary. But that’s not what happened. The difference is enormous. And no one is quite sure why. (New York Times)
• The Story of Our Universe May Be Starting to Unravel: Not long after the James Webb Space Telescope began beaming back from outer space its stunning images of planets and nebulae last year, astronomers, though dazzled, had to admit that something was amiss. Eight months later, based in part on what the telescope has revealed, it’s beginning to look as if we may need to rethink key features of the origin and development of the universe. (New York Times)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jon McAuliffe co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at the Voleon Group. Voleon was one of the first hedge funds to use AI as a core of its investing model. Previously, he was at D. E. Shaw & Co., where he researched, developed, and managed statistical arbitrage trading strategies. Dr. McAuliffe also helped to build the recommender system at Amazon.com.
Goldman cutting its 12-month probability of recession AGAIN to 15%. It was 35% as recently as last March.
Source: @tracyalloway
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