My end-of-week morning reads:
• Current Issues in Forward Guidance: “Broader communication about reaction function remains essential as long as it is conditional, disciplined, and uncertainty aware. Risks should be clearly spelled out. Central banks may still seek to influence the yield curve, but communication should emphasize the contingencies under which the path would change rather than a promise to deliver it. Scenario-based communication can be helpful in this respect.” (IMF)
• Kenneth Rogoff: Is the Trump Treasury Panicking Over the Level of US Debt?: Kenneth Rogoff on the first signs of panic as US debt surpasses $40 trillion and the steady rise in global long-term rates — which he long argued was inevitable — starts causing real pain. With the federal deficit near 6% of GDP and the national debt over $40tn, America’s fiscal position looks increasingly precarious (The Guardian) see also What a century of data tells us about today’s corporate bond spreads: Low spreads were normal. Are they so again? Duncan Lamont of Schroders on whether 30 years of data is enough to judge credit spreads that are, to use a technical term, piddly. (Financial Times)
• The Fall and Redemption of Bill Miller, Once the Greatest Money Manager of Our Time: Most licked their wounds and moved on, but for those close to the fire, like Miller, whose Legg Mason Value Trust was decimated in the crisis, the healing took longer. “I think his investing genius and record is deeply underappreciated because of the timing of his departure from the Value Trust,” says Chris Davis, chairman and portfolio manager of Davis Advisors. The Legg Mason manager who beat the S&P 500 fifteen years running, lost it all in the financial crisis, and made it back again. (Barron’s)
• How to Stop Being Financially Nihilistic Without Pretending Everything Is Fine: Hanna Horvath answers the question she gets most from readers — “okay, but what do I actually do about this?” — with tactical financial advice that meets you where you are. (Your Brain on Money)
• The Shingle-Style Home Gets Reinvented for the 21st Century: Homeowners are modernizing the historic exteriors by paring back moldings and columns in favor of bolder, more colorful facades. (Wall Street Journal) see also Four Ways to Spot HOA Risks Before You Buy a Home: Buying into a homeowners association means going into business with your neighbors. (Wall Street Journal)
• Where Drones Cannot See, the Ukraine War Is a Deadly Game of Cat and Mouse: Carlotta Gall’s dispatch from the Zaporizhzhia front, where Russian troops infiltrate the overgrown basin of the dam they blew up three years ago and Ukrainian soldiers hunt them at close quarters. (New York Times)
• The Choices We Make About AI Now Are Critical: Bill Gates argues the transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history — and right now, we are not preparing adequately for it. (Gates Notes) see also Bill Gates Says We’ve Passed AI’s Danger Thresholds. Now What?: Mat Honan sits down with Gates in Kirkland. (MIT Technology Review)
• How to spot a psychopath: ‘It’s like the difference between a domestic cat and a wild cat’: Zoe Williams on Robert Hare’s classic 20-trait checklist, developed in 1980 entirely from prison populations — and what it misses. People with persistent predatory personalities cause an inordinate amount of pain. Recently, our shared understanding of them has grown – and it could help protect us (The Guardian)
• MLB players reveal a modern toll of legal gambling: Threats, DMs and encounters: With the proliferation of legal gambling and the convenient access social media platforms can provide, athletes are hearing more than ever from those who tie their checking accounts to their performance. A pitcher coughs up a lead, returns to his locker, and finds the direct messages waiting. The Athletic polls players on what the proliferation of legal betting has done to their inboxes. (The Athletic)
• First Look: What If Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson Really Are Brothers?: Rebecca Ford on the project born nine years ago on a porch in Greece, when the two actors’ kids decided their fathers had to be related. In their new Apple TV comedy series, the actors and best friends play fictionalized versions of themselves as a way to explore a long-standing rumor that they’re actually related. (Vanity Fair)
Video of the day: China Unveils 7 2027 Models and They’re ALREADY Scaring the Rivals
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with David Booth, Founder, Chairman, and former CEO of Dimensional Funds Advisors. DFA just crossed $1 trillion dollars, and has become the largest active equity ETF manager. Booth’s new book is “Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life.”
2026: A Climate ‘You Are Here’ Last part of the ‘Super El Niño’ series
Source: God’s Spies by Thomas Neuburger
Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.
