What Conspiracy?
>"All models are wrong; some are useful."–George P. Box > I enjoy intelligent criticism. It forces you to tighten...
Unemployment Reporting: A Modest Proposal (U3 + U6)
Earlier this week, I received an email from the Real Estate editor of an (unnamed) publication. They wrote: “Just wanted to point...
Faber Says Oil, Stocks, Real Estate Are Overvalued
click for video Excerpt: "Stocks, property and commodities are overvalued as an economic slowdown and inflation will curb earnings...
Enhanced Misery Index
Yesterday, we asked what the Misery Index would look like if the CPI and Unemployment were reported honestly. A colleague at...
Rosenberg Sees ‘No Better’ Than 1% U.S. Growth in 2009
Merrill’s Chief Economist is not very sanguine on the odds for a quick bounce back. Audio: Rosenberg Sees `No Better’ Than 1%...
Hedonically-Adjusted, Well-Spun, Nominal Misery Index
Numerous pundits have taken to claiming that the Misery Index — a combination of Inflation measures and Unemployment — is...
A Perfect Recession Indicator
The NYT’s Floyd Norris notes that the 12-month change in private sector jobs is down 125,000 jobs from may 2007 to May 2008. Since...
More on May 2008 Employment
As a follow up to our NFP extravaganza yesterday, here are a few additional items you may find informative: Yesterday, we noted the big...
Temporary Help
Our last word on NFP for the day: One of the best leading indicators for employment is Temp Help. . . And how is that doing? >TEMP...
Unemployment Seasonal Aberration?
In our relentless attempt to get at the Truth, we often spill pixels showing how government data makes things appear rosier than they are...