The Return of NILF
Over the years, we have mentioned on more than one occasion the not-as-dirty-as-it-sounds measure, NILF. No, it has nothing to do with...
Flatlining GDP & NFP
As much as I typically like to discuss NFP on the first Friday of each month, I find myself unable to muster the usual blather. Not...
Business Employment Dynamics & NFP
On Thursday, we discussed another employment measure, assembled from the quarterly census of state unemployment insurance records. This...
WSJ: Overstated Job Market Strength?
We have long stated that the official BLS data was a rather artificially optimistic assessment of the actual employment picture. Our...
More on NFP: More Recognition of Disbelief
The WSJ’s Marketbeat reported yesterday that the latest analysis to join our skepticism on NFP is none other than Goldman Sachs:...
NFP: 88k (and I don’t believe even that)
The Payroll numbers are out, and they are not particularly pretty: 88,000 new jobs were created in April, according to BLS. This is the...
NFP: The Return of the Over?
Some time ago, we retired the Over/Under bet on the monthly NFP. The initial number gets so significantly revised, that the first release...
GDP Ex Housing
Despite the weather improving in March, pending sales of existing homes decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9%; Sales...
Week in Preview
This week will be about Earnings and Payrolls. Following that fugly GDP number, Friday’s NFP is taking on greater importance...
Housing Slowdown Sector Impact
Yesterday, we picked up Dan Gross’ challenge as to what other sectors the Housing slowdown was making its impact felt. Our experiment...