NFP Day
As we noted yesterday, I am flipping from the usual bet of taking "the Under" on NFP. This month, I will make the guess that...
Coming Soon: Big Birth Death Adjustments?
When it comes to the Non Farm Payroll data, I have been taking "the Under" for several years now. The bet has been...
Fed Gets New Excuse to Keep Tightening Rates
Short version: A group of Fed researchers presented a paper that rebuts the slack in the labor market argument. The Fed, therefore, is...
NFP: Final thoughts
Some highlights from the details of this NFP report: The average work week surprsingly fell -0.1 to 33.7 hours — that hardly...
Why do we overweight NFP ?
Should we put so much weight on NFP? Statisticians suggest "probably not." The WSJ lays the blame for the latest...
Read it here first: NILFs, Women, and the declining Labor Force
In case you missed it, there was a front page NYT story on Women’s decreasing work force participation. We have covered the issue...
New Column: The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards
I have a new column up at TheStreet.com, titled The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards. It is an expansion of a few recent...
Unemployment Levels and Labor Participation Rate
Yesterday, we discussed the lack of wage inflation and all the slack in the Labor market. To really understand how little "[wage]...
The Street Get Inflation Exactly Backwards
One of the odder aspects of analyzing the economy and capital markets comes when you reach a significant disagreement with the mainstream...