Further Yield Curve Inversion “a Given”
Or so says the Treasurys team at Jefferies & Co. in New York. I cannot say I disagree. The 10-year Treasury is looking to trade...
Secular Changes in Interest Rates
I really like the way this chart, by Joseph Ellis, presents this information: Long-term interest-rate changes and the stock marketclick...
New Column: The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards
I have a new column up at TheStreet.com, titled The Street Gets Inflation Threat Backwards. It is an expansion of a few recent...
Sourcing the Greenspan Chatter
This is the article that the Greenspan quote came from that popped the market today; I don’t know how accurate it is (holographic...
The Street Get Inflation Exactly Backwards
One of the odder aspects of analyzing the economy and capital markets comes when you reach a significant disagreement with the mainstream...
Chart of the Week: AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
As the 5 year chart below reveals, there has been no wage pressure in the economy over the past 5 years. The most recent drop and snap...
Jobs & Wage Data: the “Nuanced Economy”
Let’s call the job and wage data somewhat contradictory. Perhaps nuanced is a better word. Understanding why the series has...
Once Fed Hikes Stop, Markets Fall
As we digest the Fed statement, let’s put yet another Bullish Myth to rest: Markets do not have an upward bias after a rate...
3.4% Inflation is Worst in 5 years
Here’s something that only got minor play this week: CPI data for December, and the full year were released, and it...
Soft Spots Go Beyond Employment
One of the odder bits of analyses we have happened across over the holidays is this bit of explicative: “Of course employment has...