Careful What You Wish For: Perhaps the Fed Should Raise After all
Friday’s reversal calls into question the desirability of a Fed pause. Follow my thinking on this one: The same people who...
The Sensitive Sectors
"The most volatile part of the American economy has slowed significantly in the last nine months, providing a warning of both...
Win the Battle, Lose the War
Yesterday’s comments about taking a trade were correct about the initial reaction to the NFP. The weak jobs data and initial...
Where are the bodies? In line at Unemployment
During yesterday’s discussion with Doc Yardeni, he described an economy with employment so full that we couldn’t possibly...
Tension Between Incoming Data and Forecast
“The lags between policy actions and their effects imply that we must be forward-looking, basing our policy choices on the longer-term...
Mortgage Apps drop 29% Y-Y
We were recently asked why we have become so "Real Estate obsessed." That’s the wrong question. Given how significant...
“These People Are Dangerous”
Natexis Bleichroeder Technician John Roque makes these astute observations about the inflation rate as it relates to sentiment and the...
Demand Driven Inflation: Titanium and Carbon-Fiber
"Pat Hus, chief executive of Titus Cycles in Tempe, Ariz., says that whenever he hears that a supplier has carbon fiber in stock, he...
What Happens After Double Tops in the Transports?
Let’s take a look today at a pair of charts via Birinyi Research to help answer that question. The Dow Transports have recently...
The Cognitive Bias of Ed Yardeni
One of the more astonishing things I’ve come across recently was an utterly disingenuous article in Sunday’s Times:...