A Consensus is Developing: Blame Greenspan
I love when an idea simultaneously blooms all over at once. If we saw the same meme suddenly pop up all over the mainstream, that would...
Is Willful Ignorance an Investment Strategy?
Every now and again, someone who’s opinion’s I respect will write something just beyond the pale. I guess its a risk factor...
When Statistical Measures Fail to Capture Reality
The Sunday New York Times had an interesting story by Dan Gross about one of our favorite themes: What happens When Statistical measures...
NFP stinks — and Some People Still Don’t Get It
Today’s NFP number stunk the joint up: 75,000. That’s half of the monthly population growth, meaning the percentage of people working...
NFP Day — Abandoning the Over?
In April, I deviated from the longstanding "Under" gamble and took the "Over." It was a winning bet. Last month...
Worst Case Scenarios: Why the Fed Tends to Overtighten
Forget, for the moment, the specifics of the May 10 Fed Minutes. Instead, consider the decision making process the FOMC goes through....
Apprenticed Investor: 10 Lessons Learned in the Selloff
The latest "Apprentice Investor" column is up at TheStreet.com: 10 Lessons Learned in the Selloff. The column...
Recent Housing Data: Charts & Analysis
It has long been our view that Real Estate is the prime driver of this economy, and its eventual cooling will be a major crimp in GDP,...
Wal-Mart and the Buck
Today looks to be a bumpy, with futures deep in the red as European stocks took a header on "a weaker dollar and prospects for...
Yield Curve Inversion
Anyone else notice the brief Yield Curve Inversion this week? The 10-year yield slipped below Fed Funds rate for first time since the...