. . . we have no idea what’s going on:
5 Telling Economic Indicators
The WSJ (free) has an interesting article on five telling indicators that will give early signals on the economy’s direction: 1)...
More evidence: Fed Pause Not Good For Stocks
Back in February, we noted the Ned Davis Study that concluded once the Fed hikes stop, markets fall. Then this week, we looked at...
One Last Comment on M3
We started beating the M3 drum back in November 2005. It seemed to us — on the basis of the rapid increase in M3 versus M2 alone...
Are future retirees overly optimistic?
Yes. That’s the conclusion of a study by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. EBRI determined that more than half of...
Will the US Economy Decelerate Rapidly as Boomers Retire?
> Bloomberg reports that a "Revolutionary" Federal Reserve study is "shaking economists’ forecasts by suggesting...
Then & Now
Over the past 3½ years markets crawled higher, we have watched the gradual but steady build up of bullish expectations. You can see it...
Chart of the Week: Yield Curve, 2002 versus 2006
In 2002, the Yield Curve was extremely steep, with short term rates at half century lows. This was extremely stimulative to economic...
Did the Yield Curve Send a “False Alarm?”
"So much for the inverted yield curve." >Or so says a recent Bloomberg column. If I read this correctly, any inversion that...
Does the US have a “Credit Risk Spread” vs Other...
Why have yields on US Treasuries been so much above other nations? I am not referring to the recent spurt on the 10 year towards 4.98%;...