“Invert, always invert.”
So said Charlie Munger, channeling the great 19th century Prussian mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi.
Counterfactuals are a worthwhile intellectual exercise for looking at the world form a different perspective. Here is a brief intro into the concept.
Creating a Counterfactual Portfolio: Fund Managers are Good Buyers But Terrible Sellers (January 23, 2019)
More Noise, Less Signal (The Big Picture, October 29, 2013)
Trading as a “Massive Multiplayer Experience” (The Big Picture, May 18, 2011)
2008 Bailout Counter-Factual (The Big Picture, August 17, 2010)
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Thought Experiment II (The Big Picture, April 22, 2010)
CRA Thought Experiment (The Big Picture, June 26, 2009)