Invert, always invert.”

So said Charlie Munger, channeling the great 19th century Prussian mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi.

Counterfactuals are a worthwhile intellectual exercise for looking at the world form a different perspective. Here is a brief intro into the concept.


Unintended Consequences, Part I: What if Chrysler was not bailed out in 1980? (April 15, 2020)

Part II: What if LTCM Was Not Rescued in 1998? (April 17, 2020)

Part III: The Great Financial Crisis (April 29, 2020)

Creating a Counterfactual Portfolio: Fund Managers are Good Buyers But Terrible Sellers (January 23, 2019)

All Hail the Counterfactual !  (Bloomberg, November 5, 2018)

The Counterfactual on QE (Bloomberg, August 17, 2016)

No, the CRA Did Not Cause the Financial Crisis (Bloomberg, June 22, 2016)

How to ruin your financial life, #badadvice (Washington Post, September 12, 2015)

The Hitlers and Stalins We Never Knew (Bloomberg, October 10, 2014)

More Noise, Less Signal (The Big Picture, October 29, 2013)

Trading as a “Massive Multiplayer Experience” (The Big Picture, May 18, 2011)

2008 Bailout Counter-Factual (The Big Picture, August 17, 2010)

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Thought Experiment II (The Big Picture, April 22, 2010)

CRA Thought Experiment (The Big Picture, June 26, 2009)

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