Today’s WSJ has a very bullish, front page article on the current Bull market lasting another decade or so. In the past, that has operated as a bit of a warning sign that an intermediate top was nearing.
We noted the last such article in May 2006: Behind Surging Stock Market: Old-Fashioned Economic Boom" –- that led to a rather sharp decline over the next few weeks.
This doesn’t mean the penultimate top is here; It only points to the fact that the WSJ editors have decided to move a Money & Investing column to page A1. Like any other publication, this implies that they are trying to capture some of the current zeitgeist, which is obviously enthusiastic for stocks.
A decadelong bull market is supposed to be a
once-in-a-generation rarity: There was one in the 1920s, another in the
1950s and a third in the 1990s. Historically, most bull markets have
run their course in three or four years. That means, recent
stock-market highs notwithstanding, the current one should be on its
But just seven years after the great bull market of
the 1990s thudded to a halt, a small group of seasoned investors —
including some with no vested interest in selling stock — believe the
U.S. market is in the midst of another long period of gains.
This group of extreme optimists believes that global
economic strength will keep shares rising for much longer than has been
common in previous eras. Not only China and India, but also Japan,
Western Europe, Latin America and other parts of Asia are feeding on
Such sentiments give traditionalist investors the
shivers, because they can signal that excess is percolating back into
the market. Many cite Yale economist Irving Fisher, who shortly before
the 1929 crash famously said, "Stock prices have reached what looks
like a permanently high plateau."
Identifying precisely when enthusiasm shifts to froth and froth turns into rampant speculative excess is an imprecise guessing game. So far, with Sentiment measures in the middle of their ranges, it does not look like we are in the last stage major of a blow off. It is not until the sentiment measures move to wild extremes, that we can more confidently smell the end game.
Why Market Optimists Say This Bull Has Legs
They See Decade of Gain Fed by Global Growth; Skeptics Cite Big Doubts
WSJ, May 23, 2007; Page A1