Succinct Summations of Week’s Events (November 15, 2013)

Succinct Summations week ending November 15, 2013.

Positives:

1. NFP came in at 203k, as unemployment rate dropped to 7% — the lowest level since 2008;
2. Q3 GDP came in at 3.6% v expectations of a 3.1% gain;
3. New home sales grew 25.4% in October, rising at an annual rate of 444k.
4. ADP came in at 215k v expectations of 170k, the best report since last November.
5. ISM factory activity rose to 57.3, its sixth consecutive month of growth and the highest reading since April 2011; ISM new orders index came in at 63.6 v expectations of 60.6
6. Construction spending grew 0.8% in October v expectations of a 0.4% increase.
7. Initial jobless claims fell 23k last week to 298k (expectations of 320k)
8. UoM confidence index in December jumps to 82.5 from 75.1, fully shrugging off the drag from the September/October DC battle that took it as low as 73.2 in October vs a recent high of 85.1 in July.
9. Ford had its strongest November for F-series pickup trucks since 2004.
10. U.K more than doubled their growth forecast for 2013 to 1.4%, up from an earlier 0.6%; UK construction PMI rose to 62.6 from 59.4, the highest since this survey began in July ’08
11. U.S. trade deficit narrowed 5.4%, oil sales boosted exports to record levels.
12. The % increase in the labor force participation rate was the largest since 2002.
13. Consumer confidence smashed expectations, coming in at 82.5 v 76 expected.
14. Moody’s (after S&P) also raised credit outlook for Spain to stable (from negative).
15. HSBC China PMI came in at 50.8, the second highest number of the past 8 months.

Negatives:

1. 10 yr yield up another 10+bps on the week, continuing the tightening process in spite of the Fed
2. S&P 500 was down for 5 days in a row (only shed 1.7% in that time).
3. Mortgage applications fell 12.8% last week (including the adjustment for the holiday shortened week).
4. (Unreliable surveys) show that Retailers had a mixed Thanksgiving.
5. GDP gained on mostly Inventory Build.
6. Mortgage rates hit a 10 week high, sending refi applications down 17.5% (12 week low); Purchases were also lower by 4.1%.
7. Stock market sentiment even more bullish as II Bulls rose to 57.1 from 55.7; Bears fell to 14.3 from 14.4, the lowest since 1987.
8. ISM services came in at 53.9 v expectations of 55.
9. Greenspan calls Bitcoin a bubble, so you still have plenty of time to get in.

 

Thanks, Batman!

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