Succinct Summations for the week ending April 22nd 2016:
Positives:
1. Initial jobless claims fell to 247k — the lowest level since 1973! The 4-week average is down to 260.5k. Continuing claims fell to the lowest since 2000.
2. Existing home sales (closings) rose 5.1% to an annualized rate of 5.3 million, and are up 4.8% for the first quarter.
3.Philly manufacturing index six month business activity outlook rose 14 pts to the best level since February ’15.
4. Months’ supply of homes for sale rose to 4.5 from 4.4, improved but well below long term average of about 6 months.
5. MBA purchase applications to buy a home are up 17.2% year/over/year. Refi applications were up by 2.6% and higher by 13.4% y/o/y.
6. The average 30 yr mortgage rate at 3.83% is exactly where it was one year ago.
7. April NAHB home builder sentiment index was 58, unchanged; Prospective Buyers Traffic was up by 1 pt to 44 which matches the six month average. NAHB described the new home housing market by saying it “continues to recover at a slow but consistent pace.”
Negatives:
1. US housing starts fell 8.8% in March, to 1.09mm, to an annualized rate of 1.089m, below the 1.167 expected.Housing permits fell 7.7% to an annualized 1.086m rate;
2. First time buyers are still lagging far behind historical trends at 30% of total sales. The median price rose 5.7% y/o/y and at $222,700 is at three month high and the 6th highest print ever.
3. PMI manufacturing flash index fell to 50.8, down from 51.4 previously.
4. Philly Fed survey fell to -1.6, down from 12.4 previously and below the 9 expected; Index is now negative for the 7th month in the past 8.
5. Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 42.9, down from 43.6 previously.
6. April Markit US manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8, the weakest level since September ’09 from 51.5.
7. RIP Prince. “So when you call up that shrink in Beverly Hills, you know the one, Dr. Everything’ll be alright. Instead of asking him how much of your time is left, ask him how much of your mind, baby. ‘Cause in this life, things are much harder than in the after world. In this life, you’re on your own. And if the elevator tries to bring you down, Go crazy, punch a higher floor.”
