Succinct Summations for the week ending October 7th 2016
Positives:
1. Private sector figure + upward revisions slightly beat expectations. 3 month private sector job gain is now 177k (vs 6 month average of 153k)
2. Jobless claims fell to 249k, the 4-week average fell to 249k, falling for the seventh consecutive week.
3. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.2% m/o/m and 2.6% y/o/y. Average weekly earnings were up 2.3%. Workweek rose back to 34.4 hours;
4. Total vehicle sales came in at a 17.8M annualized rate, up 4.7% (17.65mm SAAR)
5. ISM Non-manufacturing index rose to 57.1. from 51.4 previously and above the 52.9 expected; ISM manufacturing came in at 51.5 in September, above the 49.2 previous reading and above the 50.2 expected.
6. Drop in mortgage rates helped refi’s which were up 4.7%
Negatives:
1. Purchase applications to buy a home down almost 14% y/o/y on tough comparisons as last year’s figure was juiced by regulatory changes.
2. Construction spending fell 0.7% m/o/m and 0.3% y/o/y. Both private residential and non residential spending fell.
3. FX is a mess, with disorderly moves and flash crashes. In the UK. Yes, pound weakness puts the 10 yr Gilt yield up 7 bps on the day and 20 bps on the week due in part to a global rise in rates but also on import inflation concerns.
4. PMI manufacturing fell from 52 to 51.5 in September.
5. Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q3 has fallen to 2.2% from 2.4% last week, 2.9% in the week prior and vs 3.5% one month ago.
6. Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 41.11, after hovering around 44 for most of the year.
