Succinct Summations for the week ending October 20th, 2017
Positives:
1. S&P500 closed at a new all-time high every day this week. This hasn’t happened since 1998.
2. Jobless claims fell from 243k to 222k. (4-week moving average fell from 257.75k to 248.25k). The last time we saw a claims figure this low was in 1973.
3. Existing home sales rose for the first time in 4 months to a 5.39M annualized rate. Median home price was up by 4.2% y/o/y (slowest rate of growth since August 2014) to $245,100.
4. Beige Book: “some Districts reported stronger wage pressures in certain sectors, including transportation and construction. Growing use of sign-on bonuses, overtime, and other nonwage efforts to attract and retain workers were also reported.”
5. Housing starts rose to a 1.127M SAAR, above the 1.17M expected. This is 4.7% below the revised August estimate of 1,183,000, but is 6.1% above the September 2016 rate of 1,062,000.
6. Industrial production rose 0.3% m/o/m, above the 0.2% expected increase. (Previous reading of -0.9% was revised up to -0.7%).
Negatives:
1. Leading indicators fell 0.2% m/o/m, below the 0.1% expected increase.
2. Import prices rose 0.7% m/o/m (0.2% excluding petroleum and food), above the 0.5% expected increase.
3. Beige Book (again): “Labor markets were widely described as tight. Employers were having difficulty finding qualified workers, particularly in construction, transportation, skilled manufacturing, and some health care and service positions. Shortages are restraining business growth.”
4. Import prices rose .7% m/o/m in September and .3% ex petro. The y/o/y gain was 2.7%, a 5 month high. Prices ex petro were up a more modest 1.2% y/o/y.
Thanks, Mike!
