Succinct Summations for the week ending March 13th:
Positives:
1. Initial jobless claims fell to 289k vs estimates of 305k.
2. CPI in China rose 1.4% y/o/y, higher than expected.
3. NFIB small business optimism index came in at 98.
4. MBA purchase applications rose 1.9%.
5. Import prices fell 9.4% y/o/y, a win for the consumer.
Negatives:
1. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq both fell for the third consecutive week.
2. Core US retail sales fell 0.2% vs an expected rise of 0.3%.
3. Headline PPI fell 0.5%, way more than the expected 0.3% rise. The disinflation theme continues. Core also fell 0.5%.
4. U of M consumer sentiment fell to 91.2 to a four-month low and below the 95.5 expected.
5. Japan’s Q4 GDP was revised from an initial reading of 2.2% to 1.5%
6. Refinance applications fell 2.9%.
One more negative: The potential price stability in oil now appears to have been illusory.
By some estimates, only 29MM baby boomers are still “gainfully” employed. That is, E-1 to E-3. Not P/T or dead end jobs. Now, there has been some attrition from the 77MM (high apogee of baby boomers alive in 1985) due to death, but still that’s pretty low. In 1985, something like 60MM boomers were gainfully employed. I pick 1985, because that’s the first year that the kids born in 1964 – the last boomer birth year – started graduating from college.
So, here’s my point: We still have nearly 300K initial jobless claims NOW, seven years plus in after the financial collapse? This can only mean, with the boomers pretty much out of the picture that Gen-X/Y/Millenials aren’t getting their good career starts like we did. After 7+ years and a lousy ramp up for, say, a 30 year old in the manufacturing industry (where I came from) and as a manager, I’d say jobless claims are going to head north in the coming 2-3 years, unless we start bringing jobs back from Asia and elsewhere.