Bonds, DST, Howard Stern & Other Randomness

Between a Tweet and a full column is a netherworld where ideas often get lost. Rather than let these tweener concepts slip through the cracks, now and again I like to gather them in one place (see, e.g., this) — if only to see if any discernible patterns emerge. Here’s my latest run of random ideas:

1. Is there a shortage of A-rated sovereign bonds?  Ever since economists concluded in the beginning of 2014 that bonds were a bad bet and yields had nowhere to go but up, I wondered what might prove these folks wrong.

We already knew the Fed was a buyer. Soon after, the Bank of Japan joined.  Now the ECB is in. But a trillion — or three — of additional quantitative easing doesn’t explain the untold trillions of bonds that are bid each quarter, or the negative yields.

My conclusion: There is a shortage of quality sovereign paper. I know, that’s hard to imagine given all of the global debt: But the key word isquality.

2. How is the Apple Watch going to do?  I haven’t the foggiest idea. But I can tell you this much: Neither do any of the pundits spilling thousands of words full of conviction (and something else I am not permitted to print in this forum).

Continues here



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  1. howardoark commented on Mar 13

    Cheer up, corn ethanol’s days are numbered. As soon as there are self-driving cars the car sharing economy will take off because taxis will be cheaper and more efficient than driving. A robo taxi will drop you off where you want to go and you can read the paper, shave, do your hair, chat on your cell phone, text, make love in the back seat et cetera on route and you won’t have to pay for parking. That will kill most people’s need for a V8. Which in turn will drop the price of gasoline to $0.40/gallon above the taxes and be bad news for various petro states and Exxon/Mobil. There won’t be any demand for corn ethanol at $1.50 a gallon.

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