Between a Tweet and a full column is a netherworld where ideas often get lost. Rather than let these tweener concepts slip through the cracks, now and again I like to gather them in one place (see, e.g., this) — if only to see if any discernible patterns emerge. Here’s my latest run of random ideas:
1. Is there a shortage of A-rated sovereign bonds? Ever since economists concluded in the beginning of 2014 that bonds were a bad bet and yields had nowhere to go but up, I wondered what might prove these folks wrong.
We already knew the Fed was a buyer. Soon after, the Bank of Japan joined. Now the ECB is in. But a trillion — or three — of additional quantitative easing doesn’t explain the untold trillions of bonds that are bid each quarter, or the negative yields.
My conclusion: There is a shortage of quality sovereign paper. I know, that’s hard to imagine given all of the global debt: But the key word isquality.
2. How is the Apple Watch going to do? I haven’t the foggiest idea. But I can tell you this much: Neither do any of the pundits spilling thousands of words full of conviction (and something else I am not permitted to print in this forum).