I’m putting the finishing touches on a huge research piece on Contrary Indicators; It should be released some time after the Labor Day weekend.
I bring this up because a huge (external) contrary indicator just flashed on my screen: Friday night’s Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Airdate: August 22, 2003. It was announced this past weekend that the coming (8/29/03), the main guest on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street” will be Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co.
Battipaglia, in case your memory is failing you, was the perma-Bull who remained staunchly upbeat on the market throughout most of the crash. Why is his appearence on Rukeyser a contrary indicator? This strategist’s Bullishness is legendary; He was totally blindsided by the bear market. Throughout the crash (see links below) he remained shockingly Bullish. Look here, no one is right all the time, or even most of the time. But to maintain a resolute Bullishness in the face of a total crash suggests a model not particularly rigorous; Hey, even a broken watch is right twice a day . . .
Battipaglia’s appearence on Rukeyser is only possible in an environment of giddy positivity. That calls for at least a mild correction.
Here are some links worth perusing on his prior calls.
THE BULLS JUST DON’T GET IT
Leading the bulls in their case these days is perpetual shill Joe Battipaglia of Gruntal and Co., who probably spends more time than any other single guest on CNBC. A couple days ago (as I pen these words) he confidently predicted that not only was the Fed now done raising interest rates after their 50 basis point move of mid-month, but that the market would soon come roaring back, with year-end 2000 witnessing a Nasdaq at 5500–up a scant 70% from current depressed (?) levels–a Dow Jones Industrials at 12,500 and an S&P 500 at 1625.
“Resurgent Economy Will See Higher Rates”
Commentary: Resurgent economy will see higher rates
By Joseph V. Battipaglia, CBS MarketWatch.com 3-18-02
“Our view has been, and still remains, that the U.S. economy will gather steam as the year progresses and inventory restocking commences. We believe that the real annualized fourth-quarter growth rate will be 3% and will help meaningfully lift the broad market — not just the largest companies — by year-end.”
Wall Street Media Star
“An April Business Week story that took a somewhat disparaging view of Wall Street and the media’s role in hyping the stock market cited his number of television appearances – 238 within the past year – second only to influential Goldman Sachs economist Abby Joseph Cohen’s 259. Television, the article said, is fueling a trend toward media-savvy “celebrity” analysts and strategists who tend toward overly rosy views of the market and have the power to move markets, sometimes dramatically.”