One of my favorite things about the weekly financial Barron’s (sister publication to the WSJ) is their unpredictibility. On more times than I can count, a Barron’s article has made me stop, reconsider the so-called conventional wisdom, and rethink my own views and prejudices.
Incidentally, Barron’s on-line, the net companion to the print edition, is one of Dow Jones best — if least known — properties.
So I am not really surprised by a rather intriguing analysis in Barron’s online recently, titled, Why the President May Be Running Scared. With Kerry locking up the Democratic nomination, political strategist’s on both sides have started adding up the electoral college votes. What they find may surprise them:
“There’s been an unusual defensiveness at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue these days. First came the report by chief weapons inspector David Kay that Saddam Hussein probably didn’t have weapons of mass destruction before the Iraq war. Under pressure, President George W. Bush appointed a commission to probe the apparent intelligence failures that preceded the war. Then came the astonishing release of controversial records about the president’s service in the Alabama National Guard during the Vietnam War. The usually quiescent White House press corps was suddenly barking like a pack of attack dogs, demanding answers.
Meanwhile, Democratic primary voters, abandoning their usual self-destructive fractiousness, united early and have virtually anointed Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts as their nominee.
Kerry and his straw man adversary, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, have had a clear field attacking President Bush’s performance on Iraq and the economy. So, it’s no surprise that for the last three weeks, the president’s approval rating has hovered below the key 50% level in a Newsweek poll.
But I’ll bet none of this is what really keeps Karl Rove and the president’s other top political advisers awake at night.
As we all learned in 2000, the only thing that really counts is the Electoral College. Anachronistic as it might be, it’s still the constitutionally mandated way of electing a president of the United States. And talk of repealing it after the 2000 fiasco went nowhere. So, how does the electoral vote look as of today?”
Here’s the electoral college table, as compiled by Zogby International:
Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004 (as of February 26, 2004)
| Blue States | Electoral | Red States | Electoral | States in | Electoral | ||
| (Kerry) | Votes | (Bush) | Votes | Play | Votes | ||
| California | 55 | Alabama | 9 | Arizona** | 10 | ||
| Connecticut | 7 | Alaska | 3 | Colorado** | 9 | ||
| Delaware | 3 | Arkansas | 6 | Florida** | 27 | ||
| Distict of Columbia | 3 | Georgia | 15 | Minnesota* | 10 | ||
| Hawaii | 4 | Idaho | 4 | Missouri** | 11 | ||
| Illinois | 21 | Indiana | 11 | Nevada** | 5 | ||
| Iowa | 7 | Kansas | 6 | Ohio** | 20 | ||
| Maine | 4 | Kentucky | 8 | Oregon* | 7 | ||
| Maryland | 10 | Louisiana | 9 | Tennessee** | 11 | ||
| Massachusetts | 12 | Mississippi | 6 | Washington* | 11 | ||
| Michigan | 17 | Montana | 3 | West Virginia** | 5 | ||
| New Hampshire** | 4 | Nebraska | 5 | Wisconsin* | 10 | ||
| New Jersey | 15 | North Carolina | 15 | ||||
| New Mexico | 5 | North Dakota | 3 | ||||
| New York | 31 | Oklahoma | 7 | ||||
| Pennsylvania | 21 | South Carolina | 8 | ||||
| Rhode Island | 4 | South Dakota | 3 | ||||
| Vermont | 3 | Texas | 34 | ||||
| Utah | 5 | ||||||
| Virginia | 13 | ||||||
| Wyoming | 3 | ||||||
| Total | 226 | Total | 176 | Total | 136 |
*Was Blue state in 2000
**Was Red state in 2000
Table: Zogby International
The operative issue is electoral votes: if Zogby’s estimates are accurate, Kerry needs only to take Ohio and Florida to get the 270+ electoral college votes necessary to win the presidency.
Howard R. Gold explains why the incumbent, President Bush, faces a surprising uphill battle for reelection:
“Only four of the states that we list as “in play” (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington) were Blue states in 2000, when they delivered a majority for Vice-President Al Gore. The other eight states that are “in play” now (including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Missouri), with a treasure trove of 98 electoral votes, were part of Bush Country in 2000. That suggests the Democratic presidential candidate is holding his base of support better than the president is, allowing Senator Kerry to peel off a couple of the paler Red states from the president’s column.
“National poll numbers are irrelevant,” Zogby says. “What is relevant is how the president plays in the Red states, and how the Democrats play in the Blue states.”
A surprising revelation, courtesy of the provocative contrarians at Barron’s. Of course, November is 8 months away, and anything — anything — can and will happen between now and then . . .
Source:
Why the President May Be Running Scared
By HOWARD R. GOLD
Barron’s, Thursday, February 26, 2004
http://online.wsj.com/barrons/article/0,,SB107783389537540398,00.html
Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2004 8:09 p.m. EST
http://online.wsj.com/barrons/article/0,,SB107783488497040429,00.html
Early State-By-State Numbers
Barry Ritholtz analyzes a recent article in Barron’s ($) that shows Kerry in a strong position vis-a-vis Bush in the state by state voting. It’s…
Bush Trails in Electoral College Projections
Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture has a nice pick up from a Barron’s column looking at Zogby’s newest electoral college projections. These projections, as compiled by Zogby International, shakes out as follows Kerry has 226 locked up, Bush has…
Why Karl Rove Is Worried
From some random ex-lawyer and arbitrage-gamer named Barry L. Ritholtz who somehow got the idea he should drop links to…
The notion that Bush faces an uphill battle surprises you? If you’d quit watching the stock market for a minute it wouldn’t be so shocking. He’s been awful. Why should he win? What’s he done that’s been so great for the country?
What I don’t see from the Bush camp is a list of accomplishments that the President has carried out since being in office. For someone who is maybe undecided, if there where a list of all the things the President said he was going to do followed by a list of all of those things he has done, people could get a track of how he has be following through on his campaign promises.
I think that someone is dreaming on some of the states that are listed as “states in play.” If you believe that John Kerry has a snowball’s chance in …. well you get the idea, of winning Tennessee or even Florida, you are crazy. I would imagine that many of the states that are listed as in play are in fact not. But hey, will see where things stand in about 8 weeks.
“Bring it on?” Be careful what you wish for.
[Editor’s note: See article 3/7/04:
Florida voters leaning toward Kerry
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/8125717.htm ]
Interesting stuff. Haven’t read the article yet, just looked at state by state breakdown. I’m not a pollster but a few thoughts…
Is NH really a lock for Kerry? Seems like a stretch.
TN/CO/MO – Pretty generous to call these toss-ups. I think most Democratic strategists would tell you these 3 are an uphill climb. I think some would tell you we’ve got as good a shot in LA or AR.
MI and PA as solid blue states? Gee, I hope so. I even worry that Illinois isn’t in the bag, though I’ve been told by smart people that we’re fine there. I’d call at least MI and PA Democratic “leaners,” if you had such a category. If we win both of them, I think it would be hard for us to lose the election.
I think IA belongs in the same category with its neighbors WI and MN, as well as WA and OR. Either they’re all up for grabs or they’re all blue. (I’ll explain why in a minute). Interesting to watch the ’04 Nader impact here. In all 5, Nader turned what should’ve been comfortable Gore wins into real nailbiters. (He kept Gore under 50% in 4 of them, and at 50.13% in WA).
Most interesting of all, perhaps…these 5 states have voted as a bloc in every election since 1980, except for MN which went Democratic in ’80 and ’84 with favorite son Mondale on the ballot. But while they voted for Reagan twice (again, excepting MN), they flipped to landslide loser Dukakis in ’88 and have stayed Democratic since.
Plenty of states went from GOP in ’80,’84,’88 to Dem in ’92,’96,’00
(CA/NY/MI/IL/PA/NJ/NM/VT/CT/DE/ME). But all these states have stayed with the popular vote winner. The 5 I’m focused on converted one election earlier, preferring the hapless Dukakis in ’88.
Now maybe I’m putting too much stock in something that happened 15 years ago, but it seems to me that any state that stuck with a weak nominee in ’88 figures in ’04 to support a more vigorous ticket, fortified by a more united party, at a time when so much more seems to be at stake.
Thinking about downballot races, I think it would be hard to argue that any of the 5 states (except maybe MN) have gotten more Republican over the last 15 years. Dem governors have taken over after long GOP reigns in IA and WI. WA and OR combined send 5 Republicans and 13 Democrats to Congress.
Bottom line on these 5 states: if the Nader aberration hadn’t made these “artificially” close last time around, I think they’d be widely regarded as solidly blue in ‘04.
Another way to look at it: All Kerry has to do is recapture all the 2000 “Blue” states in the “In Play” column, plus one 2000 “Red” (except Nevada or WV). If you also exclude Colorado, then Kerry can win in the same scenario, even without NH. These are the numbers to watch, and these are the numbers that Bush/Cheney are going to keep trying to draw our eyes away from.
I can’t help but notice assigning that the remaining 136 considered up for grabs in the following manner results in the possibility of an electoral college tie: give Kerry Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin and you’ve got a 269-269 count. What happens then?
In case of a tie, then the presidency is decided by Congress. The House chooses a president (every state gets one vote regardless of size) and the Senate chooses the VP. That is what would have happened in 2000 if Florida could not settle on a winner. The odd thing is that in 2000, the House would have voted for Bush but the Senate (new Senate after congressional inauguration but before electoral votes) was 50-50 with VP Gore casting a potential tie-breaking vote.
http://www.sixdifferentways.com/remainder/006212.php
Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004…
Electoral College count
This is an intriguing map showing the projected electoral totals for Kerry and Bush. They make the important point that national polls are *irrelevant* because the Electoral College is what matters and that is determined by state. As 2000 showed,…
Zogby’s Electoral Vote Predictions
Zogby’s electoral vote predicitons, found at The Big Picture: Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004, paint a surprisingly cheerful picture for Sen. Kerry….
John Kerry will win because of the Royalty Factor. In every single election, the candidate with more royal genes relating him to the English and French royal families, always wins the election.
So far Clinton has been the most royal of all presidents. Kerry has Bush beat well on this point.
Long live King John V!
Well, since there have been four President Johns so far.
Tennessee and Colorado are not “in play.” They’re in the Rep column for sure. Similarly, Wisconsin, Washington, Minnesota, and Oregon are in the Dem column, more or less. Normally, Ohio and Florida are swing states, but with Diebold presiding over one and Jeb over the other, I’d put them in the Rep column also. The remaining states in the “in play” column are in play. Thanks to immigration, Nevada and Arizona have changed from being solidly Rep states to being on the verge of true swing states. Missouri is what I’d call “pale Rep”: it leans Rep, but has enough of a mixture (like Florida) that makes it a toss-up.
West Virginia, since the days of FDR, has been historically Dem, but with the New Deal generation dying off and the influx of DC-area commuters, it’s changing. A toss-up state.
That’s my take. It’s going to be a close one again, that’s all I’ll say.
In reviewing the Electoral map for 2004 – it is clear that Sen. John F. Kerry will be our 44th President. I predict that Mr. Kerry will win in Ohio, West Virginia and New Hampshire plus taking all the “Blue” states carried by Al Gore in 2000. George W. Bush is vulnerable on all the key issues except the War on Terrorism. For example, Bush is weak on the economy, health care, social security, medicare,education, the enviroment and on social issues. His pandering to the Right Wing Bigots in his Party on Gay marriage is morally and politically wrong. Never, in the great history of our Country, have we adopted a constitutional admendment to exclude a group of Americans. We admended our sacred constitution to include Americans (e.g. granting African Americans citizenship, voting rights,giving women the right to vote and allowing 18 year-olds the right to vote). Finally, Our great Country needs a leader who will bring us all together. A leader who will fight for average Joe’s and Jane’s such as myself. This election will be the most important election in our lifetimes. So get out and vote and lets take back our Country!!!
The Gore States in play are:
New Mexico, Wisconsin, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine
The Bush States in play are:
Ohio, New Hampshire, and West Virginia
The Gore State Stolen By Bush:
Florida
John F. Kerry will carry all the above states except for maybe West Virginia.
Look for GOP cheating via racial profiling and Kathering Harris type intervention in:
Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
None of the GOP cheating will matter because Kerry will by a large enough margin.
Can’t wait until George W. Bush is a former president.
well it sure is good to see liberals so scared that they are worried here in march.
hello. my name is bob. will you marry me?
call, 867-5309
This poll is complete bullshit.
George B,
As eloquent as your comment may be, perhaps you might like to explain that sentiment in greater detail.
Why do you find the analysis unconvincing? Persuade us otherwise,
Note also the date — this was published on Wednesday, March 03, 2004. Things are fluid and have obviously shifted since then.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Also, Barbara Jones should note that Bob seems ready to make a committment to you and get married. Before you say yes, you should be aware that he is a “Tommy Tutone” fan
I don’t know if it’s obvious to people from out-of-state, but the DFL in Minnesota has been losing ground very steadily through a long series of elections.
It’s a Republican state, now. The GOP controls the governor’s slot, has an overwhelming majority in the house, and a working majority in the Senate. (The DFL has a bare majority – and on most issues the GOP can pull in a couple of rural Democrats and force a vote).
What’s been going on is simple – the DFL was created as a coalition of rural farmers, iron range union, and urban liberals. When Hubert Humphrey and Orville Freeman put together this coalition, they were unstoppable.
But the Dems got arrogant, and intentionally short-changed their rural contingent. The result was that Democratic legislators from outside the metro are began losing. Which meant that the DFL caucaus became more liberal, and adopted positions that lost them more out-state legislators, and it became a viscious circle.
The Dems can be sure of winning seats only in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and in a very few first-ring suburbs. And Duluth.
And their response to this has been to become even more strident and even more extreme, and to drive away even more voters.
So while I can’t speak for the rest of the country, Minnesota is going to be a very hard fight for the Dems to keep in the Kerry column.
(And for those of you who’ll point to that recent Star-Tribune poll – the Strib weights its responses based on assumptions about voting population demographics. They gave Kerry a 12% lead, based on the assumption that DFL voters make up 53% and GOP voters only 39% of the population. Whether that’s a valid assumption or not we’ll find out – but that the GOP controlls 60% of the legislative seats would suggest that its not.)
this is complete b.s. because a few of the states they’ve “given” to kerry are close and should be considered in play:
new mexico, michigan, new hampshire, and even pennsylvania.
i believe bush is up in many of those states as of now, despite the fact that, unless you’ve been living in a cave, you might have noticed that bush isn’t having the best few months.
also, states like arizona, colorado, and tennessee are considered in play?? we’ll see about that…
all of these dreamed up scenarios of “all kerry has to do is capture this state and that state and the other state” seem a little preposterous to me.
but sure, believe that the republicans are on the defensive and bush is running scared, i won’t stop you. :-)
This poll is very erronous and one-sided. This is not 2004 anymore…a lot has changed since then. I’ll tell you one thing, Bush will win every state in the South once again, especially Florida. Also, states like Arizona, Colorado, and Missouri are sure-fire Bush country. I strongly believe Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington will be hard faught over in this election and the Nader effect could very well decide the outcome in some of these states. Also, don’t be so sure on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The Republicans have built strong grassroots campaigns in these states and are investing a lot of money and time to win these electorate-rich states. The wave of patriotism after 9/11 is still particularly strong in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Even California could slip from the Democrats’ reach if they ignore it, just like Gray Davis ignored California’s economic problems and social concerns.
Bush has done an excellent job in leading our nation through the greatest terror attack and economic downfall in our history. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have been created in the past few months and unemployment continues to decline. Bush’s tax cuts are working and the public seems satisfied with his economic policies and promises not to raise taxes, a plan Kerry supports. Bush also achieved the passage of groundbreaking legislation which included a Patriot Act useful in tracking terrorists, a historic education reform bill, and greater prescription drug coverage for America’s seniors. In times of war, the people who vote, the elderly, support Bush not only for his Medicare proposals but also for his pledge to continue to uphold the fight against the terrorists, a time reminiscent of World War II and the Cold War. It’s also pretty bad when John Kerry’s former military commanders talk bad about the democratic nominee and his poor actions as a soldier. Hispanics will vote for Bush because of his plans regarding immigration and job creation which are highly beneficial to them. Working and middle class suburbanites will vote for Bush because of his fulfillment of tax cuts, his strong sense of patriotism and Christian values, and his vow to continue to create jobs. People overall also respect Bush for his vow to support religion, faith-based initiatives, parital-birth abortion bans, and a proposed amendment establishing marriage solely as the union of a man and a woman (which most polls show Americans strongly in favor of). Despite growing violence in Iraq, Bush has remained focused to establish a free government in Iraq and fight off the insurgents and terrorists who wish to destroy the world and the “western” way of life.
Bush has all his cards laid out right. I think the American people will recognize Bush’s fulfillment of his many promises and his courage to tackle any problem which is thrown his way, no matter how catastrophic, controversial, or challenging. People love Bush like they loved Reagan, and that’s why I don’t doubt a major Bush-Cheney win in 2004.
My retired father living in Florida said it best. “I know a few people who voted for Bush in 2000 who will not vote Republican in 2004. I have have never met anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 whil will vote Bush in 2004.”
My retired father living in Florida said it best. “I know a few people who voted for Bush in 2000 who will not vote Republican in 2004. I have have never met anyone who voted for Gore in 2000 whil will vote Bush in 2004.”
Dear Felix
If you are a betting man, better put your money on Kerry.
Don’t bet the whole farm on Kerry. Bush isn’t apt to come up with a charity to bail you dumb SOBs out.
People constantly underestimate Bush. Democratic Governors underestimated him and lost. Gore underestimated him and lost. The media continually underestimate him and loose. Iraq and Al Queda underestimated him and lost. The French underestimated him and lost. The UN did so as well. The 2004 Democrats are already making the same mistake, with the help of the media pumping up and believing their own press, about a Kerry victory, they will cause the usual non voting conservatives like the average Christians, the average farmers in the mid west, the country western fans, the quiet, calm and ordinary families like mine to come out and vote in droves, for fear of being subjected to the loathesome politics of nonsensical liberalism, high tax, immoral behavior, and non commital decisions that is “Kerry/Edwards”. Keep believing…..Ann Richards and Saddam learned the hard way! They are both languishing in their own seperate oblivions.
First of all, Bush stole the election. He lost the popular vote, and would have lost Florida, except for his brother being the Governor, Ralph Nader, the Butterfly Ballot and clear election fraud in Dade County. Will this be repeated? Not if an informed public and an aroused electorate can help it. Not to mention an electrified Democratic Party. Bush has buried himself in failure and scandal, yet still Kerry hasn’t broken away; but his future looks much better than Al Gore’s ever did. First he’s not pompous, just a little dull and boring. He needs to be more exciting, to smile more, and to use shorter words. Taking his theme from Edwards’s “Two Americas” stump speech, he has only to ask the old Ronald Reagan questions about Carter, (which are the yardstick of measurement). “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” And, of course, “is America more well off, better thought of, more respected and admired in the world now than four years ago?” The answer is an overwhelming NO. The reply has got to be a John Kerry election.
First, Stanley is correct: Bush DID steal the last election. I would like to add my “thanks” to Kathryn Harris…..the bitch that she is.
He won’t be so lucky this time.
Secondly, Bush is the worst president in recent history. He is an incompetent puppet, and Cheney is a very frightening man.
Thirdly, our credibility with the rest of the world has been crippled- and by the way, we SHOULD care what the rest of the world thinks – the last time I checked we don’t live on an island.
Fourth, what we have done in Iraq is wrong and evil – there was no moral reason to go over there and sacrifice our soldiers and innocent civilians. We lied to get there, and we ignored the United Nations.
We sit by and watch reality TV while human beings suffer at the hands of our corrupt leader and his pals. What kind of society have we become? Certainly we are not the same people who led the Free world through WWII! There is no glory in this horrible war, and we will suffer as a society until we reverse our course.
I keep hearing that the poor economy may be a factor in voting Bush out. That should not be the reason, but, whatever it takes!
I am amazed on the lack of education and the belief by diehard Dems that Bush “stole the election”. Facts can be nasty little things.
“…there is a margin of only about 1200 votes… but this race is simply too close to call… And until the recount is concluded…
our campaign continues.”
William Daley
Gore’s Campaign Chairman
Speaking on Election Night 2000, just after Gore’s defeat
Some facts:
The initial election returns showed Bush winning by 1200 excluding some of the absentee ballots. All ballots had been counted twice by machines.
Gore initially complained of the butterfly ballot, but within 2 days filed for a manual recount in 4 heavily Democratic counties. Interestingly, the butterfly ballot wasn’t used in three of these counties. The butterfly ballot was never used for the reason of any of Gore’s recount requests.
Never, Never, Never in any single count was Gore ever the winner in Florida.
When the Supreme Court finally put an end to the charade it was by a 7-2 vote.
I am an independent, but the orchestrated campaign put on by the Gore campaign was deliberate and unAmerican.
I challenge any of the people that have posted that “Bush stole the election” to do some research instead of regurgitating what they have heard some talking head espouse. Yes, the election was very close, but never has a loser of a Presidential campaign (remember Nixon lost to Kennedy in a squeaker and Hawaii sent two sets of electors) put on a post election campaign to change the results.
Get over it!. Bush didn’t steal the election. Jeb Bush had very little to do with it given that the FL supreme Court and the county election officials are Democrats.
Read, think for yourself and be responsible for your actions.
My concern with Florida in 2000 was the so called scrubbed list of Felons executed by Katherine Harris, which in my opinion disenfranchised 10s of 1000s of voters.
The legal definition is “Appearance of Impropriety”
When Florid’s Secretary of State, em[owered ot over see the election is also the chair of a partisan election committee for one candidate, mischief can (and will) occur.
Add to that a candidate’s brother as Governor of that State.
Oh, and the company that handled the scrubbing of these black (but not hispanic) “felons” — it was outsourced to a Texas firm (first time Florida ever did that) with political ties to the candidate.
Smells fishy . . .
The Company that scrubbed the Florida list was DBT which is the Florida Division of Choicepoint a GEORGIA Company. Yes, 31.2% of Florida’s black men were “disenfranchised” as you put it. In all states felony prisoners are not allowed to vote and 13 states prohibit ex felons. My question to you Barry, is why are 31.2% of Florida black males felons? Why did the Gore campaign not use this as the issue of their contest of the election. Seems like they thought of everything else. Oops.
Oh and you also forgot the disenfranchisement of many of our servicemen’s vote in Florida.
Oops. You also FORGOT to mention that it is the county election officials who are charged with checking the felon list for felons in their county to make sure that people are not wrongfully disallowed a vote. Since most of these counties are in fact run by Democrats, what happened?
I think you need to ask yourself what is wrong with our government programs that results in 31.2% of adult black males being felons. Don’t you?
don’t you think it’s time you updated your projected state victories from February?
In my last anaylsis (March 9, 2004) I stated that John F. Kerry would win the election by carrying all of Al Gore’s states and picking up Ohio, West Virginia and New Hamphsire. I feel strongly more than ever that Sen. Kerry will, indeed, be our next President. Since March, Mr. Bush’s policies have been proven to be utter failures. His policy in Iraq has led to over 900 of our young men and women dead. Everyday there are new instances of bloodshed. Sen. Kerry says it best: We should not go to war because we WANT to -We should go to war because we HAVE TO. Iraq, was NOT a war of neccessity – it was a war of Mr. Bush’s CHOICE. Iraq was not behind the awful attacks on 9/11 – Al Qaeda and Osama Bin-Larden – was. Which leads me to Afganhistan – thw warlords are back in control of almost all that country. The only area that the U.S. has “secured” is the Capitol, Kabul. By the way, Where’s Osama? YOU and I could probably find him faster than our so-called “Intelligence” Agencies could. Oh yes, lets not forget how America is “resdpected” around the World. Domestically, Mr. Bush’s policies are a JOKE!!! The Economy is not doing well, he has NO solutions but to cut taxes for his wealthy buddies.
I would like to respond to Andrew (May 26, 2004): Andrew with all due respect, what planet are you living on? If you believe that Americans LOVE Bush- you must be kidding- Right? Andrew, tell me do you really believe that Bush has any clue to the realities of average americans? Tell the 44 million americans without health insurance that THEY love Bush. Tell the families who lost the sons and daughters in a war that was not necessary that THEY love Bush. Tell the countless millions of americans who struggle every day to pay their bills, meet their mortgages, worrying about how to put their children through college and are one illness away from financial bankruptcy-that THEY love Bush. Andrew, what were you smoking when you wrote your letter? Finally, Andrew if you believe that Bush has “Christian Values” then your view of Christianity is far different than mine. My God Loves all of his creation. My Savior instructed me to give unto Caesar what was Caesar’s and to God what is God’s. My God instructs me to Love my neighbor as nyself. That includes: Gay, Straight, Hispanic, Jew, Muslim, Black, White, Men, Women, children, Liberals, Conservatives, Independents, Democrats and yes, even Republicans. Mr. Bush’s view of christianity is: Us Vs. Them. Guess what Andrew, there is only US!!! In conclusion, It is Patriotic to challenge authority. To imply that if one disagrees with Mr. Bush – one is unpatriotic – then that is Unamerican. America was created by great men who DID question authority – that of King George. Well, I question the authority of another King George. On November 2, myself and countless millions of likeminded Americans will lead a second American Revolution and take back our Country!!!
Andrew, if you read this, please respond. America is all about debate and ideas. You may agree or disagree with me – but – whatever your views register to vote and let YOUR Voice be heard.
This gets updated regularly; The most recent version is here
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/projected_elect.html
Bush 274, kerry 264
President Elect’s seventh analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the now offical Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term.
http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html#map
Bush is gonna be the winner…. just as sure as I’m gonna break Hank’s record. You can take it to the bank.
Hey…. all of you FLORIDA GORE voters from 2000… I saw a bumper sticker that REALLY says it all for you…
PALM BEACH COUNTY- we put the ‘DUH in Florida
Ya’ll try not to choke on your bitterness.
Mr Kerry seems to have “a plan for everything” its seems to me he will say anything to get elected. If
he somehow gets elected Im moving to Canada!!!
The current state of world affairs is not something that can be resolved as easy as he appears to present
it. Unfortunately the Republicans are not doing such a
good job of repudiating Mr Kerrys unrealistic claims!!
all about PA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Right now every thing is such a blurr! I can’t stand it I can’t wait till this is over and Kerry Wins!!!!! I know we hear different things all over, one day its Kerry 4 sure, then its Bush…YUCK! will win it, the Kerry again will win it. Truth is there is no sure winner however, one thing is certin, with out John Kerry as President, America and the world will suffer the consiquences. We need John Kerry. We can not allow President Bush to lead this world into the wrong direction for 4 more years. Laidies and Gentle men, all I have to say is THINK! Think for you, you’r children, and their children. America and the world will never see a bright day is we allow Bush to win again. You don’t beleive me, just wait. If Kerry loses, we lose!
VOTE JOHN KERRY and save America!
Bush MUST go. He will destroy this country if he remains in office for another 4 years.
I predict that within 20 years, Bush will be shuffling around a government-run hospital on Haldol, claiming he is Jesus Christ. Didn’t you hear, his mama calls him the ‘chosen one’; she is only contributing to his illusions of grandure!
We all loose no matter who it is that wins. I am a registerd republican,but vote the man. I am not a total brain dead party line voter. In 35 years I voted for diff party canidates. I voted Bush senior out the second time around. I voted for Jr Bush but not a chance the second time around. I am not voting for Kerry either. I see no winner, and untill we get this two party system of the lesser of two evils behind us, America will never continue to prosper. I will vote out a Senator, in this election and maybe a rep. But I really wonder if our votes are really needed at all with the electronic vote machines. They can program the winner ahead of time.. I wonder why we can’t have a little print out slip on how we voted in case of a reacll. Could it be because they don’t want an honest election..
Jeez. Let’s just sum it up by saying that our republic has become an oligarchy vs socialist battlefield, and we, “the people”, have lost our voice. True, we can vote for who we want, “of the choices made available”, but the first choice we get to make is limited by what a political party gives us. We need an “always independent” party, that always has a primary, that ALL of us can vote on. We can write in or vote for whoever we want, as long as they are not already running in another party’s primary. Bush or Kerry. I’m going to be ill.
No we don’t need Kerry!!! We need Bush to carry this country!!! We don’t want to be stepped on like a bug because Kerry has no back bone!!!!
dis is madd gay
You can’t say that it is unfair and that we don’t have a voice. We have a very large voice in local and state politics, but it just doesn’t get that much attention and so people don’t care. And as far as the two party system goes, we’ve had it for over 200 years and we are the only mega power in the world. To say that it doesn’t work or that we don’t have choices is not true.
Alaska rules!!!!
I am Cool and live in a house not an iglue!!!
if bush wins we are all going to die
WE DON’T WANT BUSH! HE IS A BASTARD. BUSH NEEDS TO STICK A BUSH UP HIS ASS
Well Bush won………….
The people have spoken – or so they say. I am just beside myself with these results!!! Mr. Bush, a corporation, disguised as a human being, has been elected to another four years. How could we elect this man who sacrificed over 1000 of our young people to avenge his daddy!? Bush is the worst president in my lifetime. He has alienated the entire world against us. He has given billions of dollars of tax cuts to his wealthy contributors. He has decimated our enviromental laws. He has done absolutely nothing while over five million of our fellow citizens have lost their health insurance and has outsourced millions of jobs overseas.
Yet, over 59 million Americans voted to have four more years of this corporation, disguised as a human being as our president. The rational for this choice, according to exit polls, is “Moral Values.” I admit, Bush talks a good game – but does not practice what he preaches. How can you have moral values when you cut social services for the poor in favor of tax cuts for your wealthy contrbutors? How can you have moral values when you pile up debt for our children? How can you have moral values when you make going to war the first option and then telling our enemies to”bring it on”? How can you have moral values when, in order to get votesd, you pander to the fears and bigotry of voters against a group of Americans? George Bush has no sense of moral values.
Finally, I want to tell Sen. John kerry that I voted for him with pride and hopefulness for our Country. I can truly say that the Best Man Lost. What a sad day for America.
Yes we have lost only a 1000 soliders, would you rather have lost millions when the terrorist came onto our land. With Kerry that was very likely to happen. You happen to vote into all that hype. Kerry is all talk and can’t stand for anything. Bush at least stands for something. God will be his only judge.
Clinton had those jobs outsourced to overseas, that was already in the works when Bush took over his mess ………………
how do you know that Terrorists would attack more if Senetor John Kerry was president? They could attack while bush is in office, too.
No they won’t attack on Bush’s watch. Kerry would have been to lack. Turning it all over to the UN. I think not. Time will tell won’t it….
Listen, I want to encourage all of you people who are so upset about the president being reelected, that your thinking about moving to canada, to please, please go. In fact, if you need some money for the bus, I will be glad to help out. As long as you promise to never return, even when you figure out how bad socialist medical care is.
Its a great day God is in heaven, and W. is in the white house.