Yields Away!

A friend writes:

Here’s something that I think is really interesting: Only 9 times since 1977 has the yield on the 2-year Treasury note risen by 23 bps or more on employment day.

[Friday] marked the 10th time.

What did the 2-year note do over the next week and the next month following those large moves? There were 5 times when the market rallied back somewhat in the ensuing week and 4 times when the market continued to sell off.

But one month later the market traded higher in yield 6 out of 9 times relative to where it had closed on employment day. So if history is any guide, the odds favor further upward pressure on yields, maybe not over the next week but certainly over the next month.

Hard to imagine treasuries trading up (or yields going down) unless next month makes the March data look aberrational. That is NOT my bet . . .

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