Long-term chart of the 10-year shows rates have moved off the lows in July 2003. In our view, the market has been expecting increases for quite some time now.
TNX (10 Year) Yield, weekly
Source: StockCharts
The same trend holds true for Crude: Oil prices broke out months ago. We observed in November 2003 a breakout in crude oil over $32.25 would send oil to $36 – 38 levels The commodity tore through the $38 levels.
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Quote of the Day
“…that is certainly not the case for our yawning fiscal deficit. Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances.”
-Fed Chief Alan Greenspan
