Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/2/04


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Chart courtesy of WSJ

Yet another fascinating poll, courtesy of the good people at WSJ. Although there appears to be a minimal bounce post-convention, what there was showed up in all the right places for the challenger. John Kerry saw “slightly stronger support among likely voters in 16 battleground states during the Democratic National Convention,” according to the latest WSJ/Zogby poll. Kerry leads in 13 states (up from 12 last week). President Bush leads in three states.”

Here’s the Journals take on the polling data’s internals:

The latest poll, conducted July 26-30, was conducted simultaneously with the convention, though some voters were polled before Mr. Kerry’s acceptance speech. Mr. Kerry’s slight post-convention boost is what pollster John Zogby said he expected. Only a slim margin of voters is undecided, he says, so the conventions aren’t likely to cause major swings of support. “The president will get a small bump but — like Kerry — not a big one. There is just not enough give this year,” Mr. Zogby says.

The leads Messrs. Bush and Kerry hold in 11 of the 16 states are within the margin of error, which varies between +/- 2.5 and +/- 4.4 percentage points. Of the 13 states in which Mr. Kerry is in the lead, all but five are within the margin of error. Mr. Bush’s top spots, in three states (Arkansas, Nevada and Ohio), are all within the margin of error. For analysis of how this could play out in the Electoral College, see this article:

Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush would get 220 votes in the Electoral College and Mr. Kerry would get 318. Excluding the 32 total electoral votes from four states considered too close to call, Mr. Bush would get 215 votes and Mr. Kerry, 291.

Stay tuned for the RNC in NY.

Battlegrounds States Poll – August 2, 2004

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