My friend Gary B. Smith is a technical analyst and trader. He also writes a very popular column for TheStreet.com, and is the Chartman on Fox’s Bulls & Bears.
Today, Gary answers an interesting reader question about chart analysis and the election:
“Have you tried to apply charting techniques to election poll results to predict election results?”
GBS responds:
“Well, not until today. But, here’s my take which looks to give Kerry the edge!”
click for larger chart
Note that Gary supports the incumbent.
Readers of this blog know I do not put much stock into the thinly traded Iowa futures or tradesports. But GBS raises an interesting issue: Is it the raw numbers, or the trend that matters most?
Bush vs Kerry: Technical Breakout?
My friend Gary B. Smith is a technical analyst and trader. He also writes a very popular column for TheStreet.com, and is the Chartman on Fox’s Bulls & Bears. Today, Gary answers an interesting reader question about chart analysis and…
The trend is very important, not so much to understand who supports either candidate on November 2, but more to understand how motivated people will be to make their way to the polling place to vote for their candidate.
If a politician is trending down, there’s something out there that is causing doubt. There are a lot of people out there that will doubt a candidate but still respond to a poll that they support them. No effort involved. But when it comes to election day, the trends that show doubt and the trends that show increased support are maginified. Swarms of locusts will not keep me from the polling place this year to vote for Kerry (ok, it’s actually across the street, so that’s not saying much). But I tend to feel that the number of people with the same motivation to vote for Bush has been stripped down to the bone recently. I may be just a blue state idealist, but I see the voter turnout numbers and demographics being much different than 2000.
Boy, I hope the trend is the correct indicator. I shudder to think what will happen with another four years of Bush.