Around 8:15ish, Steve Liesman and I will be discussing "The Mystery of the Awful Economists" — a research commentary which went out to the firm’s clients yesterday;
You can download a full version of the piece here:
While you are here, be sure to have a look around . . .
Hello,
CNBC Europe carried the US feed till 8:30am (your time) and then we were treated with a news flash about European Central Bank’s Jean-Claude Trichet… all this till 9:05am, so we Europeans missed the second part of the discussion about Barry’s column.
Snif!
Barry,
Excellent remarks on Squawk Box about the errors in economic forecasting !
I like John Kenneth Galbraith’s quote about economic forecasts:
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
http://www.llywelyn.net/docs/quotes/galbraith.html
The Mystery of the Awful Economists
Maxim Group’s and The Big Picture’s Barry Ritholtz published yesterday a research note on the factors that in his opinion are throwing off the majority of economists on employment trends (he also commented on the same this morning on CNBC,
The $90 Stocks Running to $100 Debate Continued
Ritholz of The Big Picture
adds some comments to the post here on Tom Dorsey’s stock theory that
$90…
A brilliant paper. The best explanation I’ve seen on the topic.
Very good work Barry.
Excellent report.
I am most in agreement about management being gun shy and afraid to add personell during this recovery.
My question is, however, how will those same executives react when the economy once again turns downward, as it always does? Many businesses are operating using a bare minimum staff as it is, due to their reluctance to add new employees. When a new downturn occurs they will be left with very little excess staff to shed. Many workers are at “efficiency capacity” and would not be able to take over the tasks of another co-worker, who may be layed off.