The Stock Trader’s Almanac:
MARKET TALK: A Little Something For The Bears…
The Stock Trader’s Almanac has issued an alert – decidedly bearish. "Our outlook calls for the market to return to the area of last October’s lows (Dow at 9750, S&P 500 at 1095 and the Nasdaq Composite at 1903) before moving higher," says Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the tome that tracks trends in the stock market. The Nasdaq Composite has already closed at 1904 this year, making it likely that it will fall below 1900 before this correction is over – perhaps back to the August 2004 low of 1750, Hirsch says. "The potential also exists for the Dow, S&P 500 and the rest of the market to break those October 2004 lows." In other words, according to Hirsch: "Cash is king" right now.
It seems like you’re picking and choosing. What do you do about Jan. ’05? It looks like birth/death came in around -280k. If we backed out the number then, the month would have been huge.
I think you’re on a slippery slope. Whatever the number, it’s a wash month to month. Don’t get caught up in the weeds day to day just because the under took hit. In spite of your “biases” piece, you’re fighting this one too hard. Until the charts conclusively take out early April highs your neutral position is aok especially with a little yield in money markets now.
The charts will tell us if the jobs are legit or not. Elephants can’t tiptoe.