Is China a leading or lagging indicator? (Possibly both).
China M2 Money Supply vs. Chinese GDP
click for larger chart
Source: Michael
Panzner
Money Supply softening in China could precede a slowdown in the manufacturing giant’s economy. The upside is that Chinese Central Bankers remain as concerned about inflation as the Fed. The downside is they probably are just as impotent to stop it.
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With Chinese growth so extremely dependent on investment the economy could slow a lot quicker then may believe.
Oop. Negative Marshallian “k” is usually very bad news in Asia.
actually, china will do a lot better job managing the soft-landing than japan ever could– the reason is that China is from the getgo an economy and country that understands interdependencies and its place in a larger sphere of existence that the japanese were too closeminded to see.