In Wednesday’s WSJ, Wharton Prof Jeremy Siegel (Stocks for the Long Run) discusses the virtues of indexing. Prof Siegel claims we are "on the verge of a revolution in indexing" in The ‘Noisy Market’ Hypothesis.
I don’t think so. Indexing has been an under-performing strategy for the past 10 years, and needs to be freshened up. The Prof is part of the refurb job.
Blasphemy! How can you say that? Everyone knows indexing is cheaper, more tax efficient, and a successful strategy for the longer term. Right? We all know that 80% of active fund managers fail to beat the index, right?
Well, not quite. Indexing — essentially a variation of buy and hold — goes through periods of over and under performance. In a secular bull market, indexing works great. (See secular chart here). But whenever something else is occuring — like recently — indexing falls flat.
Indexing in the ’90s became a huge success due to the heavy impact of the mega caps. But starting in 1999, when things began to sour — a stealth bear market had actually started in 1998, based on breadth — indexing became a proxy for under-performance. After long periods of underperformance themselves, emerging markets, commodities, and small caps have become the newest stars.
And, it turns out that beating the S&P 500 is less of an accomplishment than it used to be. More than half of all active managers have done so since 1999 (see chart above), according to Jonathan Clements of the WSJ:
"Over the past six calendar years, the S&P 500 has fallen a cumulative 6.6%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 index of small and midsize stocks is up 18%, Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Europe, Australasia and Far East index has gained 7.2%, and the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond index has notched 48.5%.
Thanks to that disparity in returns, it’s been a cinch to beat the market — assuming you define the market as the S&P 500. In fact, if you haven’t outpaced the S&P 500 over the past five or six years, something is likely seriously wrong with your investment strategy.
After all, as part of a well-diversified portfolio, you ought to spread your money across large stocks, smaller companies, foreign markets and bonds. Any mix of that kind should have handily beaten the S&P 500."
I’m cheating a bit with this data. Its not fair to benchmark the universe of emerging country, commodities, or small / mid cap stocks against the ponderous SPX. And I am not taking into account fees, taxes etc.
But its pretty surprising that something everyone takes for granted — active managers underperform the S&P500 — turned out to be less true than many people probably assumed.
I expect this trend to continue, until the next secular bull market. Then buy and hold will once again rule, and the active managers will again under-perform.
But we ain’t there yet, and may not be for another 5-10 years.
>
UPDATE: June 16, 2006 12:27pm
Geez! What a response. A few replies are in order:
This is not an anti-indexing post; It is an anti-market cap weighted, mindless buy & hold post. If you bought a non-cap weighted S&P500 fund, you dramatically outperformed the SPX.
The key takeaway is not to assume that the what is commonly defined as Indexing (Buying the S&P500) is a great strategy at all times.
>
Sources:
The ‘Noisy Market’ Hypothesis
JEREMY J. SIEGEL
WSJ, June 14, 2006; Page A14
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115025119289879729.html
Forget the S&P 500: Here’s How to Tell If You Are Really Beating the Market
Jonathan Clements
WSJ, May 3, 2006; Page D1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114661720164842132.html
I concur. I have trouble with indexing because I don’t believe in helping out badly run companies that I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole.
maybe we can have the yankees play the knicks …. they’ll outperform there also
What are the statistics when comparing directly to a relevant index? I would think that many active small cap managers tend to under perform the Russell 2000, ect. Would be interesting to see a comprehensive apples to apples analysis over a much longer time frame.
Also, is it the same 50% plus of managers or different PMs every year beating the index depending on luck? Still extremely tough for mutual fund investors to find someone who outperforms over a long period, right?
I’ve heard of a few funds that use modified indexing, leaving out troubled companies like GM or reducing their weightings.
the comparison should be apples to apples …. small cap fund managers to russell index , not to S&P500…. how do active to index compare there ?
95% of funds fail to beat their reference index after fees per Lee’s comment. That is, if you believe everyone’s twisting of statistics to suit their needs.
You are cheating A LOT with the data, and your point. Decent indexers have for some years now been well allocated beyond the S&P 500.
I agree with lossaverse. There are many index funds one can purchase today. The S&P 500 will outperform when large caps lead. Most managed funds hold smaller stocks, hence the recent outperformance.
S&P, which isn’t in the fund business, has data that compares managers to relevent indexes (small cap funds to the S&P Smallcap 600, for example). And it’s not pretty.
According to the Q4 2005 report, in 2005 56% of large cap managers beat the S&P 500 but 76% of mid-cap funds trailed their index and 61% of small capper trailed. Over the past three years, the S&P 500 beat 62% of large cap funds, the midcap index beat 70% and the smallcap beat 71%. The five year results are even worse. See http://www.spiva.standardandpoors.com/
Apples to indexes still favors indexes
Barry Ritholtz, who I genuiely admired and liked when I worked at TheStreet.com, has an anti-indexing post up that just cries out to be debated. He’s citing some Vanguard data that WSJ investing columnist Jonathan Clements wrote about back in…
Barry – love your blog but per Aaron’s/B’s comments – the WSJ and your blog are being pretty misleading. The dark reality that the financial services world doesn’t want to admit is that active management – particularly in mutual funds – has generally underperformed and done a great disservice to their investors.
I also am not a fan of indexing, but I found other parts of Professor Siegel’s book, “The Future for Investors,” to be extremely insightful, specifically the part where he talks about investing in well run but hated companies that pay high dividends, and how that can really boost returns over the long run.
The problems with indexing are that (1) indexes don’t pay decent dividends, and (2) hated companies tend to get dropped from the indexes to make room for the “latest and greatest,” so what you end up with is a collection of well-loved, and hence overvalued, stocks.
As I write this, Siegel is on CNBC talking about dividend-wieghted ETFs.
Other Voices: Links for 6/16/06
Read: 1. John Waggoner in USA Today opines that some mutual funds should carry heavier warnings about their risks, such as Emerging markets are based in countries that are more likely to collapse than other nations are. If the fund…
GRL – not sure what you’re talking about – ETFs (SPY, TLT, whatever) generally do pay dividends. Here’s some historical dividend info on the SPY:
16-Dec-05 $ 0.672 Dividend
16-Sep-05 $ 0.522 Dividend
17-Jun-05 $ 0.488 Dividend
18-Mar-05 $ 0.467 Dividend
Didn’t S&P add a bunch of tech highflyers like JDSU around the top of the bubble? It’s not nearly as passive as people think. They chase performance like everyone.
Isn’t that strategy called Dogs of the Dow? The professor should give credit where it is due.
I think PIMCO has a fairly new index fund product that attempts to correct for the valuation problems inherent in the S&P 500. If memory serves me right, it is called IndexPLUS. But as a market-cap weighted index, S&P 500 does reduce exposure to potential value stocks while chasing high fliers.
I am pretty unhappy about Siegel’s current hobbyhorse of “improved” indexing. I don’t mind a simple, quantitative strategy like benchmarking by sales or dividends, rather than by market cap, but it is an active and not a passive strategy. Dividend- or sales-weighted baskets are good, old-fashioned value strategies. In a random-walk world I can see why value strategies “work” as higher-multiple names are more likely to be expensive due to mere chance.
‘Tain’t indexing, though.
As for beating the S&P, it’s not only been easy, but effectively effortless for anyone not wedded to large-cap domestic names. When I check my own performance, since I do not so limit myself, I always regress against a basket that includes small domestic names, large and emerging non-US stocks, and both dollar and non-dollar bonds. The reason is as simple as scanning this table of ’99-’05 annualized returns and stdevs:
Take those same “index-beating” returns and send them along. I bet dollars to donuts that regressed against the whole basket above, the median alpha will be negative.
FD: mine is positive — but not significant at .05. Damned emerging markets.
I have been an avid reader of your blog for just over a year now and that is by far the worst blog entry I have read.
You do say that you are ‘cheating a bit’ with your data. I assume that you felt obliged to say this because it is quite evident that there is little if any value added in your analysis.
IBanking seems better suited for the scope of your analysis.
Weak
ETFs (SPY, TLT, whatever) generally do pay dividends.
Granted, but the dividends paid by most ETFs (real estate-based excluded) are pretty paltry.
How can you possibly expect to get any meaningful compounding action going when your yield is 1-2%?
I didn’t see it as a loser. I read your stuff to get a different perspective. I may disagree with you (here most especially with Siegel), but I want to test my ideas, not stroke my ego.
GRL – sorry about that – I misread your post and thought you said “no dividends” – you’re right, they are lower dividends, but they also have much lower costs than a traditional mutual fund and provide better diversification than buying individual stocks.
As for everyone hopping on the non-cap weight S&P index, David Swensen (from yale) did a great analysis of it and felt, at least as the ETF was provided, it had a major downside – the expense ratio vs. the normal S&P index – his argument being that the expense ratio outweighed the difference in return.
The piece on active v.passive performace–sorry Barry–was extremely weak. I admire you constantly reminding viewers that ‘no one can forcast market moves’ and the perils of the ‘dismal science’ [begs the question of the existence of RH partners or any other of course, but….]… But the industry has made billions comparing apples to oranges, in terms of ‘performance v. the s and p’. I have submitted detailed analysis of such marketing ploys to a major publication. If its not accepted, its your to post gratis.
BR
There are long periods were active management underperforms — typically , Secular bull markets
then there are periods where passive indexing underperforms
thats my point — there is no one magic formula that ALWAYS works (although I think indexing is better for most people over the long haul)
Speaking of non-market-cap-weighted indexing:
Where Are the Fundamental ETFs?
The performance of Rydex’s equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF compared to the S&P 500 (Ticker: RDX)
I was thinking of adding a rating service for each post. Interesting to know that some people think this one was a big loser.
Hey, at least Random Roger liked it!
The one thing everyone agrees on here is that the S&P can be beat by anyone, including money managers, ETFs and individual investors without a problem.
As for who beats who, I think informed and trained individual investors outperform money managers and ETF’s. Its their money and they care about it most. Also, they can formulate exit strategies and act on them a lot quicker than the rest.
I liked your post too Barry. Led me to read point of views of three informed individuals – You, Clements and Prof Siegel. :)
Hating to beat this to death [last post on this i promise]
the issue is the s anp 500 is NOT the market. Its the largest 500 US EQUITIES. page 9 of Roger Gibsons good book Asset Allocatation illustrates this beautifully. worth looking at.
Indexing is a stupid form of investing because you are investing according to size rather than value.
After reading Barry’s post and the comments I reckon that most of them are entirely misguided, because they are about finding a strategy that _always_ beat the market.
The index-by-cap story is that over the long period, that over multiple secular cycles it outperforms every single other strategy.
It may underperform active management during secular bear markets and outperform during secular bull markets, but the theory is that overall it is better than active management, and way better after fees and costs.
The problem of course is selecting the right index and following it. Then there is survivor bias etc.; but the logic of indexing is anyhow entirely based on a pretty long period of evaluation, something like 40-80 years, otherwise getting in an out of indexing is just another form of market timing.
Note that this theory was used to disprove the notion that active management wins, not to prove that passive investment via indexing wins, which is not necessarily a logical consequence.
As an investment strategy, passive indexing is usually chosen not because of its returns before fees, but rather because of the after fees return.
What I suspect the ”indexing” theory really says is that over the long period Wall Street has managed to capture in fees over 100% of the benefit, if any, of active management.
In other words the conclusion is that Wall Street brokers and investment bankers tend to be a lot smarter than their gullible customers, which sounds plausible.
Barry is reading (scanning?) too quickly.
In his WSJ op-ed piece, Jeremy Siegel attacks the same kind of indexing Barry dislikes. The WSJ article establishes the rational basis for the new WisdomTree index ETFs, which are not at all the kinds of cap-weighted indexes that have failed over the last twenty years.
Furthermore, the Linkfest page also says Irwin Kellner doesn’t understand “the cruelest tax,” while Kellner in his column specifically disassociates himself from his descriptions of other people’s attitudes.
That’s completely missing the point on two stimulating thinkpieces. Sounds like Barry just reads the headlines and sounds off without bothering to read the articles.
Theory is missing from the data-driven analysis of portfolio weighting and indexation, whether based on non-market-cap fundamentals or on market-cap. The fatal problems with dividends and certain other so-called fundamental metrics for either selecting stocks or weighting stocks in a portfolio have been analyzed with theory in mind. To avoid excessive repetition here, the full analysis can be found at the following webpage.
At http://www.numeraire.com/download.htm there are documents about the fatal fallacy of dividends and other factors: WSJ letter; WSJ article comment; WSJ.com article comment, and blogs comments. The WSJ letter to the editor is a response to the WSJ Op-Ed article, which in turn is a response to the WSJ.com Commentary article. These documents, in turn, are supported by two published articles also available at the numeraire.com webpage: IJEB in June, 2005; and AEF in May, 2006.
To facilitate fair, open discussion about this matter among interested persons, one of the linked documents (labeled “blogs”) at the numeraire.com webpage includes comments by bloggers. I trust this conforms to fair use pursuant to The Chicago Manual of Style, 14/e.
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Nokia 5170iR– US$39
Nokia 6020– US$130
Nokia 6670– US$105
Nokia 6630– US$175
Nokia 6100– US$80
Nokia 6108– US$90
Nokia 6220– US$105
Nokia 6230– US$110
Nokia 6260– US$135
Nokia 6310– US$69
Nokia 6310i– US$70
Nokia 6500– US$60
Nokia 6510– US$60
Nokia 6600– US$135
Nokia 6610– US$80
Nokia 6630– US$175
Nokia 6170– US$145
Nokia 6650– US$82
Nokia 6800– US$105
Nokia 6820– US$110
Nokia 7200– US$185
Nokia 7210 Turquoise– US$100
Nokia 7230– US$120
Nokia 7250– US$120
Nokia 7250i– US$120
Nokia 7260– US$135
Nokia 7280– US$155
Nokia 7600– US$165
Nokia 7610– US$195
Nokia 7650– US$160
Nokia 8250– US$65
Nokia 8310– US$90
Nokia 8910 Titanium– US$160
Nokia 8910 Black– US$165
Nokia 8910i– US$185
Nokia 8890– US$115
Nokia 8850 Special Edition– US$105
Nokia 8850 Gold Edition– US$110
Nokia 8855– US$115
Nokia 9210 Communicator– US$195
Nokia 9210i Communicator– US$195
Nokia N-Gage– US$110
Nokia 9500 (communicator)– US$210
Sony Ericsson P800– US$155
Sony Ericsson P900– US$205
Sony Ericsson P910i– US$210
Sony Ericsson T20e– US$35
Sony Ericsson T20s– US$39
Sony Ericsson T28s– US$39
Sony Ericsson T28 World– US$45
Sony Ericsson T29s– US$49
Sony Ericsson T100– US$30
Sony Ericsson T105– US$35
Sony Ericsson T200– US$45
Sony Ericsson T230– US$55
Sony Ericsson T300– US$55
Sony Ericsson T310– US$50
Sony Ericsson T600– US$69
Sony Ericsson T610– US$130
Sony Ericsson T630– US$135
Sony Ericsson T68i– US$105
Sony Ericsson T68m– US$110
Sony Ericsson Z200– US$100
Sony Ericsson Z600– US$170
Sony CMD-J5– US$30
Sony CMD-Z7– US$35
Sony CMD-J7– US$40
Sony CMD-J6– US$40
Sony CMD-Z5– US$90
Sony CMD-MZ5– US$155
Sony Ericsson R520m– US$100
Sony Ericsson R380 World– US$90
Sony Ericsson R380s– US$105
Sony Ericsson R600– US$35
Sony Ericsson S700– US$175
Sony Ericsson K500i– US$180
Sony Ericsson K700i– US$189
Samsung SGH A200– US$50
Samsung SGH A300– US$40
Samsung SGH A500– US$70
Samsung SGH A800– US$70
Samsung SGH C100– US$85
Samsung SGH E400– US$125
Samsung SGH E600– US$129
Samsung SGH E700– US$130
Samsung SGH E715– US$155
Samsung SGH-E810– US$140
Samsung SGH-E820– US$150
Samsung SGH-E800– US$155
Samsung SGH-E850– US$140
Samsung SGH D410– US$150
Samsung SGH D500– US$155
Samsung SGH P400– US$135
Samsung SGH P510– US$139
Samsung SGH N188– US$110
Samsung SGH N288– US$60
Samsung SGH N500– US$60
Samsung SGH N620– US$60
Samsung SGH M100– US$45
Samsung SGH P400– US$140
Samsung SGH P410– US$145
Samsung SGH P500– US$155
Samsung SGH Q105– US$40
Samsung SGH Q300— US$70
Samsung SGH R220– US$30
Samsung SGH R225– US$25
Samsung SGH S100– US$90
Samsung SGH S200– US$100
Samsung SGH S300– US$105
Samsung SGH S307– US$130
Samsung SGH S500– US$109
Samsung SGH T100– US$100
samsung SGH S105– US$35
Samsung SGH T200– US$125
Samsung SGH T400– US$60
Samsung SGH T500– US$90
Samsung SGH T700– US$99
Samsung SGH V200– US$105
Samsung SGH VM680– US$100
Samsung SGH X400– US$105
Samsung SGH X410– US$130
Samsung SGH X426– US$129
Samsung SGH-C200– US$125
Samsung SGH-X460– US$140
Samsung SGH-X450– US$130
Samsung SGH-X120– US$99
Samsung SGH X600– US$145
Samsung SGH-X610– US$140
Samsung SGH-Z105– US$120
Motorola A008– US$50
Motorola A388– US$70
Motorola A388c– US$120
Motorola A820– US$65
Motorola C330– US$20
Motorola C331– US$25
Motorola C332– US$30
Motorola C333– US$35
Motorola C350– US$69
Motorola E360– US$60
Motorola E365– US$110
Motorola E380– US$95
Motorola E398– US$125
Motorola MPX200– US$180
Motorola Accompli 008– US$49
Motorola Timeport 280– US$80
Motorola T190T– US$25
Motorola Talkabout 191– US$25
Motorola T720– US$65
Motorola T720i– US$85
Motorola V3Razor– US$145
Motorola V66– US$60
Motorola V60– US$70
Motorola V60i– US$75
Motorola V70– US$105
Motorola V80– US$115
Motorola V290– US$80
Motorola V750– US$125
Motorola V3688+– US$20
Motorola V8088– US$30
Motorola V525– US$139
Motorola V300– US$130
Motorola V400– US$125
Motorola V500– US$130
Motorola V600– US$140
Siemens A35– US$15
Siemens A40– US$19
Siemens A50– US$25
Siemens A52– US$29
Siemens A55– US$30
Siemens C45– US$30
Siemens C55– US$35
Siemens CL50– US$70
Siemens CL55– US$65
Siemens CT56– US$30
Siemens M50– US$35
Siemens M55– US$120
Siemens MC60– US$79
Siemens ME45– US$50
Siemens S45– US$60
Siemens SL42– US$65
Siemens SL45i– US$69
Siemens S55– US$85
Siemens SL55– US$125
Siemens SX45– US$155
Siemens SX1– US$180
Siemens Xelibri 1– US$60
Siemens Xelibri 2– US$70
Siemens Xelibri 3– US$110
Siemens Xelibri 4– US$80
Siemens Xelibri 5– US$65
Siemens Xelibri 6– US$85
Siemens Xelibri 7– US$85
Siemens Xelibri 8– US$95
Panasonic G50– US$80
Panasonic G51– US$95
Panasonic GD35– US$20
Panasonic GD52– US$25
Panasonic GD55– US$49
Panasonic GD67– US$39
Panasonic GD75– US$45
Panasonic GD87– US$125
Panasonic GD88– US$129
Panasonic GD90– US$30
Panasonic GD92– US$30
Panasonic GD93– US$20
Panasonic GD95– US$39
Panasonic X70– US$120
Panasonic X66– US$110
Panasonic X68– US$115
Panasonic A101– US$110
Panasonic A102– US$120
Alcatel OneTouch 301– US$20
Alcatel OneTouch 302– US$25
Alcatel OneTouch 303– US$30
Alcatel OneTouch 511– US$35
Alcatel OT525– US$39
Alcatel One Touch 501– US20
Alcatel One Touch 311– US$25
Alcatel One Touch 701– US$30
Alcatel One Touch 512– US$40
Alcatel One Touch 715– US$55
NEC N830– US$85
NEC N710– US$70
NEC C616– US$110
NEC N900– US$150
NEC N820– US$80
NEC N910– US$170
NEC N700– US$55
Sharp GX1– US$99
Sharp GX10– US$100
Sharp GX10i– US$110
Sharp GX15– US$110
Sharp GX20– US$125
Sharp GX30– US$135
Philips Fisio 120– US$25
Philips Fisio 311– US$30
Philips Fisio 620– US$35
Philips Fisio 825– US$35
Philips Xénium– US$45
Philips Fisio 820 + Kit Blue– US$49
Nextel i55sr– US$65
Nextel i2000plus– US$35
Nextel i58sr– US$30
Nextel i530– US$35
Nextel i205– US$20
Nextel i305– US$25
Nextel i35s– US$29
Nextel i88– US$30
Nextel i90– US$59
Nextel i95cl– US$70
Nextel i60c– US$40
Nextel 6510TM– US$110
Nextel i730– US$85
Nextel i733– US$95
Nextel i736– US$105
Nextel i830– US$115
Nextel i860– US$125
Nextel i930– US$140
LIST OF refurbished phones we have in stock
Nokia 1100– US$30
Nokia 2100– US$35
Nokia 2300– US$50
Nokia 3100– US$55
Nokia 3108– US$50
Nokia 3200– US$55
Nokia 3230– US$75
Nokia 3300 – US$65
Nokia 3310– US$20
Nokia 3315– US$22
Nokia 3330– US$22
Nokia 3350– US$23
Nokia 3410– US$28
Nokia 3510– US$30
Nokia 3510i– US$43
Nokia 3530– US$40
Nokia 3595– US$35
Nokia 3610– US$44
Nokia 3650– US$150
Nokia 3660– US$165
Nokia 5100– US$65
Nokia 5140– US$90
Nokia 5210– US$35
Nokia 5510– US$95
Nokia 5550– US$50
Nokia 5170iR– US$39
Nokia 6020– US$110
Nokia 6670– US$105
Nokia 6630– US$155
Nokia 6100– US$65
Nokia 6108– US$75
Nokia 6220– US$95
Nokia 6230– US$100
Nokia 6260– US$25
Nokia 6310– US$55
Nokia 6310i– US$60
Nokia 6500– US$45
Nokia 6510– US$55
Nokia 6600– US$115
Nokia 6610– US$70
Nokia 6630– US$145
Nokia 6170– US$145
Nokia 6650– US$70
Nokia 6800– US$95
Nokia 6820– US$100
Nokia 7200– US$175
Nokia 7210 Turquoise– US$80
Nokia 7230– US$100
Nokia 7250– US$95
Nokia 7250i– US$100
Nokia 7260– US$115
Nokia 7280– US$125
Nokia 7600– US$145
Nokia 7610– US$170
Nokia 7650– US$130
Nokia 8250– US$50
Nokia 8310– US$75
Nokia 8910 Titanium– US$140
Nokia 8910 Black– US$140
Nokia 8910i– US$175
Nokia 8890– US$110
Nokia 8850 Special Edition– US$95
Nokia 8850 Gold Edition– US$95
Nokia 8855– US$95
Nokia 9210 Communicator– US$120
Nokia 9210i Communicator– US$150
Nokia N-Gage– US$100
Nokia 9500 (communicator)– US$180
Sony Ericsson P800– US$140
Sony Ericsson P900– US$190
Sony Ericsson P910i– US$195
Sony Ericsson T20e– US$25
Sony Ericsson T20s– US$30
Sony Ericsson T28s– US$30
Sony Ericsson T28 World– US$35
Sony Ericsson T29s– US$35
Sony Ericsson T100– US$20
Sony Ericsson T105– US$25
Sony Ericsson T200– US$35
Sony Ericsson T230– US$35
Sony Ericsson T300– US$45
Sony Ericsson T310– US$40
Sony Ericsson T600– US$50
Sony Ericsson T610– US$120
Sony Ericsson T630– US$110
Sony Ericsson T68i– US$90
Sony Ericsson T68m– US$100
Sony Ericsson Z200– US$90
Sony Ericsson Z600– US$120
Sony CMD-J5– US$25
Sony CMD-Z7– US$25
Sony CMD-J7– US$35
Sony CMD-J6– US$30
Sony CMD-Z5– US$75
Sony CMD-MZ5– US$140
Sony Ericsson R520m– US$60
Sony Ericsson R380 World– US$75
Sony Ericsson R380s– US$95
Sony Ericsson R600– US$30
Sony Ericsson S700– US$150
Sony Ericsson K500i– US$155
Sony Ericsson K700i– US$155
SONY ERICSSON P910a $130USD
SONY ERICSSON P910i $120USD
SONY ERICSSON P900 $100USD
SONY ERICSSON K700i $85USD
SOMY ERICSSON W800i $220
PDA’s
HP IPaq Pocket PC H4150 ========= $190
Asus MyPal A716 ================= $175
HP IPaq Pocket PC H4350 ========= $185
Toshiba Pocket PC E405 ========== $120
Sony Clie PEG-TH55 ============== $155
Toshiba Pocket PC E800 ========== $220
PalmOne Zire 72================== $120
PalmOne Tungsten E ============== $90
PalmOne Tungsten C ============== $140
PalmOne Zire 31 =================
$65
palm Treo 650=====================$240
Please feel free to contact us with your Quotation and Location
Thanks
=====
Regards
steve smith
{sales rep}
sell_phones45@yahoo.com
We are legit company from USA we have all brands of Mobile Phones such
as;Ipods,xbox 360,Sidekicks,Nextels phone,for sell at cheap and affordable prices,they
ranges from Nokia/Samsung/LG/SonyEricsson/Motorola/Alcatel/panasonic With Bluetooth,
all Brands and Models of Nextel Phones
Address:345 Moshood Abiola Way
WE ARE SELLING ALL KINDS OF MOBILE PHONES LIKE:
NOKIA 7600…$170
NOKIA 8910…$100
NOKIA 8850…$105
NOKIA 8850…$100
NOKIA 8910…$110
NOKIA 9210…$110
NOKIA 9210i..$110
NOKIA 8910i..$150
NOKIA 9500…$195
NOKIA 9300…$160
Nokia N70….$140
NOKIA N80….$180
NOKIA N90….$200
NOKIA N91….$220
NOKIA N92….$245
NOKIA E61….$300
NOKIA N93….$3000
NOKIA 8800…$190
NOKIA N71….$175
NOKIA N72….$170
Sony Ericsson K310….$145
Sony Ericsson K510….$165
Sony Ericsson K610….$165
Sony Ericsson K790….$200
Sony Ericsson K800….$190
Sony Ericsson M600….$175
Sony Ericsson P990i…$400
Sony Ericsson W700i…$150
Sony Ericsson W810….$155
Sony Ericsson W850….$250
Sony Ericsson W900i…$230
Sony Ericsson W950….$240
Sony Ericsson Z710….$250
Sony Ericsson p910i…$185
Motorola A1200…$190
Motorola A910….$150
Motorola E1070…$160
Motorola L2……$130
Motorola Q…….$250
Motorola RokrE2..$210
Motorola V1050…$175
Motorola V195….$165
Motorola V3(Gold) Edition……$150
Motorola V3c RAZR for Verizon..$145
Motorola V3i Dolce & Gabbana…$185
Motorola V3x (PINK)…………$170
Motorola W220….$200
Samsung P920….$300
Samsung I830….$250
Samsung Serene SGH-E910…..$500
Samsung S401i…$200
Samsung D870….$230
Samsung Z710….$270
Samsung p900….$285
Samsung p860….$255
NEXTEL i930…..$120
NEXTEL i870…..$140
NEXTEL i450…..$90
NEXTEL i860…..$110
Sidekick 2……$120
Sidekick 3……$150
Qtek 8100….$125
QTEK 8300….$145
Qtek 8310….$165
Qtek 8500….$155
Qtek 8600….$225
Qtek 9000….$320
Qtek 9100….$190
Qtek 9600….$280
Qtek G100….$175
QTEK S200….$185
CONTACT: salesorder@usa.com
We are legit company from USA we have all brands of Mobile Phones such
as;Ipods,xbox 360,Sidekicks,Nextels phone,for sell at cheap and affordable prices,they
ranges from Nokia/Samsung/LG/SonyEricsson/Motorola/Alcatel/panasonic With Bluetooth,
all Brands and Models of Nextel Phones
Address:345 Moshood Abiola Way
WE ARE SELLING ALL KINDS OF MOBILE PHONES LIKE:
NOKIA 7600…$170
NOKIA 8910…$100
NOKIA 8850…$105
NOKIA 8850…$100
NOKIA 8910…$110
NOKIA 9210…$110
NOKIA 9210i..$110
NOKIA 8910i..$150
NOKIA 9500…$195
NOKIA 9300…$160
Nokia N70….$140
NOKIA N80….$180
NOKIA N90….$200
NOKIA N91….$220
NOKIA N92….$245
NOKIA E61….$300
NOKIA N93….$3000
NOKIA 8800…$190
NOKIA N71….$175
NOKIA N72….$170
Sony Ericsson K310….$145
Sony Ericsson K510….$165
Sony Ericsson K610….$165
Sony Ericsson K790….$200
Sony Ericsson K800….$190
Sony Ericsson M600….$175
Sony Ericsson P990i…$400
Sony Ericsson W700i…$150
Sony Ericsson W810….$155
Sony Ericsson W850….$250
Sony Ericsson W900i…$230
Sony Ericsson W950….$240
Sony Ericsson Z710….$250
Sony Ericsson p910i…$185
Motorola A1200…$190
Motorola A910….$150
Motorola E1070…$160
Motorola L2……$130
Motorola Q…….$250
Motorola RokrE2..$210
Motorola V1050…$175
Motorola V195….$165
Motorola V3(Gold) Edition……$150
Motorola V3c RAZR for Verizon..$145
Motorola V3i Dolce & Gabbana…$185
Motorola V3x (PINK)…………$170
Motorola W220….$200
Samsung P920….$300
Samsung I830….$250
Samsung Serene SGH-E910…..$500
Samsung S401i…$200
Samsung D870….$230
Samsung Z710….$270
Samsung p900….$285
Samsung p860….$255
NEXTEL i930…..$120
NEXTEL i870…..$140
NEXTEL i450…..$90
NEXTEL i860…..$110
Sidekick 2……$120
Sidekick 3……$150
Qtek 8100….$125
QTEK 8300….$145
Qtek 8310….$165
Qtek 8500….$155
Qtek 8600….$225
Qtek 9000….$320
Qtek 9100….$190
Qtek 9600….$280
Qtek G100….$175
QTEK S200….$185
CONTACT: salesorder@usa.com
We are legit company from West Africa,we have all brands of Mobile Phones such
as;Sidekicks,Nextels phone,for sale at cheap and affordable prices,they ranges from
Nokia/Samsung/LG/SonyEricsson/Motorola/Alcatel/panasonic With Bluetooth, all Brands
and Models of Nextel Phones
Address:345 Moshood Abiola Way
WE ARE SELLING ALL KINDS OF MOBILE PHONES LIKE:
NOKIA 7600…$170
NOKIA 8910…$100
NOKIA 8850…$105
NOKIA 8850…$100
NOKIA 8910…$110
NOKIA 9210…$110
NOKIA 9210i..$110
NOKIA 8910i..$150
NOKIA 9500…$195
NOKIA 9300…$160
Nokia N70….$140
NOKIA N80….$180
NOKIA N90….$200
NOKIA N91….$220
NOKIA N92….$245
NOKIA E61….$300
NOKIA N93….$3000
NOKIA 8800…$190
NOKIA N71….$175
NOKIA N72….$170
Sony Ericsson K310….$145
Sony Ericsson K510….$165
Sony Ericsson K610….$165
Sony Ericsson K790….$200
Sony Ericsson K800….$190
Sony Ericsson M600….$175
Sony Ericsson P990i…$400
Sony Ericsson W700i…$150
Sony Ericsson W810….$155
Sony Ericsson W850….$250
Sony Ericsson W900i…$230
Sony Ericsson W950….$240
Sony Ericsson Z710….$250
Sony Ericsson p910i…$185
Motorola A1200…$190
Motorola A910….$150
Motorola E1070…$160
Motorola L2……$130
Motorola Q…….$250
Motorola RokrE2..$210
Motorola V1050…$175
Motorola V195….$165
Motorola V3(Gold) Edition……$150
Motorola V3c RAZR for Verizon..$145
Motorola V3i Dolce & Gabbana…$185
Motorola V3x (PINK)…………$170
Motorola W220….$200
Samsung P920….$300
Samsung I830….$250
Samsung Serene SGH-E910…..$500
Samsung S401i…$200
Samsung D870….$230
Samsung Z710….$270
Samsung p900….$285
Samsung p860….$255
NEXTEL i930…..$120
NEXTEL i870…..$140
NEXTEL i450…..$90
NEXTEL i860…..$110
Sidekick 2……$120
Sidekick 3……$150
Qtek 8100….$125
QTEK 8300….$145
Qtek 8310….$165
Qtek 8500….$155
Qtek 8600….$225
Qtek 9000….$320
Qtek 9100….$190
Qtek 9600….$280
Qtek G100….$175
QTEK S200….$185
CONTACT: salesorder@usa.com
to whom it may concern.
THIS IS THE WAY THE WORK: THEY LURE YOU WITH THE PRICE OF ITEMS THEY CARRY , THEN THE ASK FOR C.C. INFO OR THEY HAVE YOU SEND CASH VIA WESTERN UNIO TO NIGERIA, ONCE THEY HAVE YOU NUMBER YOUR DONE. THEY TRY TO CHARGE $750 FOR AN ITEM WORTH $100. BUYERS BEWARE THIS SCUMBAGS R OUT TO CLEAN YOUR ACCOUNT. DONOT GO FOR IT THEY GO BY THE EMAIL jane_phones@hotmail.com THE EMAIL NEVER CHANGES
BUT THE CONTACT NAME IT’S ALWAYS DIFFERENT.
Modern Portfolio Theory :The Precursor of Modern Mutual Funds Selection Theory
Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) published in 1952 and the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to him in 1990 was an important step in the development of portfolio management. It used science to discourage the then prevailing risky buy – hold strategy of a single stock in a portfolio. The introduction of diversification and reduced risk in portfolio management proved efficacious for the next half century.
However since 1952, the investment markets have seen drastic changes, not the least of which, is the exponential growth of mutual funds from about 100 to currently almost 13,000. Funds have eclipsed stocks in most portfolios. Mutual funds now offer more than 200 million investors the allure of diversification with less risk and greater average investor returns.
This has not altogether happened.
Investors were the recipients of diversification with less risk but not improvement in net return levels.
Why?
It is generally agreed mutual fund portfolios do create diversification and in so doing reduce risk but what has been the net effect on improving returns. Investor returns since Markowitz work in 1952 and since the emergence of mutual funds in the mid-1920’s have remained the same producing a sub zero sum game.
What would explain the difference between the S&P 500 Stock Index gross return of 11-12% over the last quarter of a century and average investor gross returns of 7.5% annually? Going from gross to net returns, taxes explain 3.5%, inflation 3.0 -3.5%, costs/expenses another 2.0% for a total difference of 8.5 – 9.0% annually. If an investor were fortunate enough to win the 5% chance of selecting funds whose performance equaled the S&P 500 annual return of 11 – 12%, it would be reduced by 8.5 – 9.0% leaving a net return of 2.5 – 3.0%. The average selection skilled investor would, of course, do worse with a net return of minus 1.0 -1.5% annually.
Since it is practically impossible to effect significant reductions in taxes, inflation and cost/expenses over time, the use of the Modern Theory of Mutual Fund Selection represents a unequaled opportunity to significantly improve the net returns of the fund investor.
Regen Associates
Addendum Modern Portfolio Theory :The Precursor of Modern Mutual Funds Selection Theory
Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) published in 1952 and the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to him in 1990 was an important step in the development of portfolio management. It used science to discourage the then prevailing risky buy – hold strategy of a single stock in a portfolio. The introduction of diversification and reduced risk in portfolio management proved efficacious for the next half century.
However since 1952, the investment markets have seen drastic changes, not the least of which, is the exponential growth of mutual funds from about 100 to currently almost 13,000. Funds have eclipsed stocks in most portfolios. Mutual funds now offer more than 200 million investors the allure of diversification with less risk and greater average investor returns.
Not exactly.
Investors were the recipients of diversification with less risk but no improvement in net return levels.
Why?
It is generally agreed mutual fund portfolios do create diversification and in so doing reduce risk but what has been the net effect on improving returns. Investor returns since Markowitz work in 1952 and since the emergence of mutual funds in the mid-1920’s have remained the same producing a sub zero sum game.
What would explain the difference between the S&P 500 Stock Index gross return of 11-12% over the last quarter of a century and average investor gross returns of 7.0% annually? Going from gross to net returns, taxes explain 3.5%, inflation 4.0 – 4.5%, costs/expenses another 2.0% for a total difference of 8.5 – 9.0% annually. If an investor were fortunate enough to win the 5% chance of selecting funds whose performance equaled the S&P 500 annual return of 11 – 12%, it would be reduced by 9.5 – 10.0% leaving a net return of 1.0 – 1.5%. The average selection skilled investor would, of course, do worse with a net return of minus 1.5 -2.0% annually.
The following is a Table shows the effect of costs/expenses, taxes and inflation on the real net return of various investments modes and their relative exposure to principal risk:

This Table also shows Certificates of Deposit (CD) and Managed Mutual Funds (MMF) on a real net return basis are essentially a zero sum game while Unmanaged Mutual Funds ( UMF) and Modern Theory of Mutual Fund Selections (MTMFS) escape the game with modest to robust real net returns.
From a risk/reward point of view, investing in CD’s has less principal risk and greater net return than MMF, an unprecedented conclusion since at least USD $ 7 trillion are invested in funds that investors are relying on for retirement, college education …It also means that even modest investor and planner return expectations over the years have been shattered in real terms since no positive net return of principal would ever be possible.
In view of this, it is even more important and pressing for investors and planners to focus on ,at least, UMF and above. It is practically impossible to effect significant reductions in taxes, inflation and cost/expenses over time. Therefore, embracing (MTMFS), a natural evolution of Markowitz (MPT), represents an unprecedented opportunity to significantly improve the real net returns of the fund investor.
Addendun to:
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) : The Precursor of Modern Mutual Funds Selection Theory (MMFST)
Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) published in 1952 and the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to him in 1990 was an important step in the development of portfolio management. It used science to discourage the then prevailing risky buy – hold strategy of a single stock in a portfolio. The introduction of diversification and reduced risk in portfolio management proved a major advance in portfolio management for the next half century.
However since 1952, the investment markets have seen drastic changes, not the least of which, is the exponential growth of mutual funds from about 100 to currently almost 13,000 and rising. Funds have eclipsed stocks as important components of portfolios. Mutual funds now offer more than 200 million investors the allure of diversification with less risk and greater average investor returns.
Not exactly.
Investors were the recipients of diversification with less risk but no improvement in net real return levels.
Why?
Confronted with almost 13,000 funds the investor, planner, and adviser are forced to cope with the data overflow and noise that comes with it. Add to this picture a lack of basic research over the last 50 + years into fund selection, it is no wonder real median investment outcomes are a minus zero sum game.
It is generally agreed mutual fund portfolios do create diversification and in so doing reduce risk but what has been the net effect on improving returns. Investor returns since Markowitz work in 1952 and since the emergence of mutual funds in the mid -1920’s have remained static.
What would explain the difference between the S&P 500 Stock Index gross return of 11-12% over the last quarter of a century and average investor gross returns of 7.0% annually? Going from gross to net returns, taxes explain 3.5%, inflation 4.0 – 4.5%, costs/expenses another 2.0% for a total difference of 8.5 – 9.0% annually. If an investor were fortunate enough to select funds whose performance equaled the S&P 500 annual return of 11 – 12%, it would be reduced by 9.5 – 10.0% leaving a net return of 1.0 – 1.5%. The average selection skilled investor would, of course, do worse with a net real return of minus 1.8 % annually.
The following Table shows the effect of costs/expenses, taxes and inflation on the real net return of various mutual fund investments relative to Certificates of Deposits and their exposures to principal risk:
The preceding Table shows Certificates of Deposit (CD) and Managed Mutual Funds (MMF) on a real net return basis are essentially a zero sum game at -1.0 % and -1.8%, respectively while Unmanaged Mutual Funds ( UMF) and Modern Theory of Mutual Fund Selections (MTMFS) escape the game’s zero sum consequences with modest to robust real annual net returns of 3.0.% and 8.4%, respectively..
From a risk/reward point of view, investing in CD’s has less principal risk and greater real net return than MMF, an unprecedented conclusion in view of USD $ 7 trillion invested in MMF funds by investors who are relying on positive net real outcomes for retirement, college education …It also means that even modest investor, planner and adviser return expectations over time have been not been realized. Because of negative real net returns ,the doubling of principal is not possible for MMF, however, UMF and MTMFS would double every 24 and 8-9 years, respectively.
Our research studies evaluating return and risk (beta) over the entire markets spectrum show the exposure to principal risk between UMF and MTMFS to be essentially the same “low to medium” level – also an unprecedented conclusion.
In view of the impact of fund selection on zero sum game results, it is vital for investors ,planners and advisers to focus on UMF and beyond to the MTMFS level. The 90% of mutual funds consistently invested in MMF’ s at unfavorable risk/rewards mean 45-50% of all fund investors are at minus zero sum in real terms .
Since it is impractical to assume loads/costs, axes and inflation can be drastically reduced some time soon, the use of MTMFS represents an unprecedented opportunity to significantly improve real net returns and prevent the further erosion of investor expectations.
Arthur Regen
Managing Director
RegenAssociates.com