Here is Housing by the numbers:
of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6%
• 43% of first-time
home buyers in 2005 put no money down.
• 15.2% of 2005 home
buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.
• 10% of all home
owners have no equity in their homes
• $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.
• 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan
balances larger than their initial loan.
• Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally,
monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the
• According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53%
over a year ago.
• The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59%
higher than a year earlier.
• New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.
• The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.
• The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.
• The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC,
in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the
price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.
• The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator
has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it
never was above 220.
• According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now
flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.
• Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since
1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East,
West and Mid-West.
Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.
Wow — that is some soft landing you got there . . .
The Hard Landing For Housing is Already
Thursday, September 14, 2006