My pal Cody wrote a column yesterday titled Reality Check. He wrote: "Nothing drives me crazier than when people point to the current state of the economy and lament it as anything less than a boom." He further laments the parsing of "the macro and microeconomic data for any little validation of their wrong views."
One thing Cody is definitely right about: If you have been anything but long and strong you’ve been wrong (investing wise). From a trader’s perspective, fighting the tape is always a losing battle. The
trend remains up, momentum is positive, seasonal strength is upon us,
and the bears and shorts have been vanquished.
But is that a Reality Check? Is accepting the Wall Street and Mutual Fund Buy & Hold sales pitch all that real? Do we really take Government Statistics at face — and call that a true gauge of reality? Has our reality simply become the 200 day moving average of the markets?
Take today’s benign CPI data. Futures exploded on the release, and given this is the 2006’s last quadruple witch, the bias will be strongly to the upside (although we should expect a lot of volatility in individuial names). The best short term advice remains "Don’t Fight the Tape."
But the official data continues to be at odds with reality (not that Traders care a whit about that). The CPI release claims there is almost no inflation, with core CPI up 2.6% (consensus 2.7%). But consider what the BLS told us today:
• Food prices fell, as orange juice went to record highs, and corn is up 70% since August, while wheat is near 10 yr highs.
• Medical care rose only 0.2% — apparently, the recent 20% annual increase has been halted.
• Education prices went down 0.2% — despite widely reported tuition increases — primarily caused by a decline in long distance phone service prices (WTF?)
• Commodities ex-food and energy fell 0.4%, just as the CRB industrial metals index went to a record high.
(Thanks to Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak + Co for much of the data here)
Bottom line remains that the headline numbers look great — expect markets to respond positively — but the reality check is this: These Government BLS numbers simply do not square with reality.
While Investors can recognize this, Traders have no choice but to "ignore reality" and go for the ride. A turret-bound buddy wrote me:
"I don’t care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else is noise."
That’s what is driving the markets. And that’s your reality check for the day.
>
Source:
CPI Is Flat; Core Inflation
Is Lowest Since June 2005
JEFF BATER
WSJ, December 15, 2006 9:23 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116618889905651461.html
cody sure was right about MSFT and AAPL this summer.
Wile E. Coyote ran out of road quite a ways back….and sooner or later he’s gonna look down.
Your friend sounds like a souless, greedy, typical wall street prick. As long as he has a big pile of cash sitting on the floor in front of him when he dies, nothing else matters. Sounds like a great guy.
he may sound like a prick to you, but honestly, that’s the best advice/analysis i’ve heard in a long long time.
“Bottom line remains that the headline numbers look great — expect markets to respond positively — but the reality check is this: These Government BLS numbers simply do not square with reality.
While Investors can recognize this, Traders have no choice but to “ignore reality” and go for the rideThat’s what is driving the markets. And that’s your reality check for the day”
WHAT MAKES YOU SO SURE THAT THE MARKET IS IGNORING REALITY? THE MARKET SPEAKS AND IF PEOPLE CHOOSE NOT TO LISTEN, THAT’S THEIR PROBLEM. REALITY IS THE MARKET(S) HAS HAD A FABULOUS RUN AND THOSE WHO THOUGHT IT WOULDN’T OR SHOULDN’T ARE STILL TRYING TO EXPLAIN WHY THE MARKET IS “WRONG”.
Frankly, Barry, for someone who always rejoices when finding errors in others’ reporting, that was a pretty sloppy post.
Education AND COMMUNICATION dropped .2%, all on the communication side, ie., phones and computers. Education was up .5%, tuition .6%.
I don’t know what they include in commodities, but apparently it includes apparel and other non-durables. Comparing it to a metals index seems pretty silly. You know a lot of people buying copper in bulk?
~~~
BR: Bob: You are correct about communication (my bad) — but not about apparel (its not a commodity) or metals, which while people don’t buy in bulk (“put that container load over there”) they do them in products –metals are sold as cars durable goods (white goods), plumbing etc — Metals go up and these products may also go up
And I don’t rejoice in other’s errors — rather, I lament the steady stream of BS we are fed daily.
I also heard the comment that P/E multiples (which don’t seem to matter to Bears when the are low, only when they are high), are actually LOWER now than when this bull market began in 2003. That is what I call a profits driven rally. Isn’t that what equities are all about?
Your friend sounds like a souless, greedy, typical wall street prick. As long as he has a big pile of cash sitting on the floor in front of him when he dies, nothing else matters. Sounds like a great guy.
Sticks and stones…
Orange juice price may be high. What about prices for egg, meat, and vegetables?
Could college tuition be a small part of all education costs when counting all the costs before college?
Insurance permium is going up. How about the actual spending on healthcare such as drugs, medical equipments etc?
Why are people so obsessed with the stock market? Confining yourself to one investment vehicle is for amateurs IMO. If you’ve been short on the economy by being long on the long bond or the zero you’ve done very well rececently. You can be “morally” right and make money too… it’s fun! (By “moral” I mean you might actually get to keep the money in the long run.)
Now I’m not saying any one market is the correct play, but I think in general the focus on a specific market is naive. Right mix of markets and positions at the right time for the win.
After today, “goldilocks” and all those other search words as a sentiment tell must be going off the charts.
Must…focus…on…making…money.
Look at the VIX from May to June ’06 (a double). Incredible spike in pessimism. That will tell you why the market is having its best move in three years.
Barry, are you looking at the correct table?
Commodities
Food and beverages
Commodities less food and beverages
Nondurables less food and beverages
Apparel
Nondurables less food, beverages, and
apparel
Durables
Clearly they are using a different definition of commodities. The ratio for food and beverages, 15%, is the same as in their main category. They are saying ALL food, beverages, apparel, etc., are commodities.
So, you are wrong. I was correct in pointing out your comparison to a metals index was absurd.
You maybe should spend more time reading these things and less worrying about your next media appearance. ;-)
This market is designed and made for traders.There is a long time that investors ie buy and hold have been locked out if they think it does not fit with their value criterias or locked in if they wish to be carried up from a year before.
Rightfully why a trader would care about a Pe or a dividend or a cy”s name when he knows that he can have 4% in a day on “the right paper” ?
How do you think you can reach such rotation on stocks on the same pole of money?
This has been the scenario throughout the year 2006.How many times in your life have you seen so many stocks genuinely jumping by 10/15% in a day ??
The statistics are just an excuse to faint showing interest to a larger background.The whole financial community says buy and forget. This is the odity, this was the same scenario for the bond market in 2005 this was odity untill the conodrum get explanation.
I guess that reflation will be poorly distributed ie wall street will be happy and the street wondering how will be the end of this comedy.
How does one “buy volatility”? Is there an ETF that mimics the VIX?
TIA
“How about the actual spending on healthcare such as drugs, medical equipments etc?”
If anything, the decline was due to several drugs going generic, certainly not a repeatable occurance.
Bob in MA
What link are you looking at?
Also, please note I have done very little media — despite repeated requests — until January, when we have an official “announcement” to make . . .
From Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas
Page 121
Five fundamental truths:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
——————————————————————————————
In my opinion, those five fundamental truths are the ONLY constant REALITY.
Everything you think about the market and money is an image formed by your biased self important ego thinking it can out think the market and that it knows what is right and wrong.
In order to be the best investor / trader you can be and have any chance of out performing the market and your peers is to FOCUS on what the market is doing NOW and not whether you think what it is doing is right or wrong, good or bad, moral or immoral.
The bottom line in this game, like any game, is performance. Nothing else matters. The only way, in my opinion, to perform consistently well year after year is to eliminate the ego, focus on the trend and tightly manage losses.
Good investing / trading to all.
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
…the one that shows the .4% drop. Where did you get your figures from?
Would it be reasonable to bet you will be announcing your new show, or a regular appearance on someone else’s? The birth of a pundit….
“How does one “buy volatility”? Is there an ETF that mimics the VIX?
TIA”
I don’t really know, but, buy straddles maybe?
Why is it a surprising that the economy continues to do well. I think there has been too much drinking of the kool-aid around the Big Picture vis-a-vis the housing market and the overweening desire to find data that will fit the hypothesis that the housing sector is poised to pull-down the overall economy.
For a reality check, look through the noise of statistics showing slowing activity, one would see a fairly strong economic foundation: growing real wages, crazy-strong corporate profits, an export boosting weak dollar, and a war.
If one fixates on the troubles in housing, it is not too hard to find statistics that promise 45% declines, etc. What is missing in most of the discussion is that RFI is roughly 5%-6% of the economy, and the biggest problems are in a very narrow segment of the market – subprime lending, which is roughly 7% of the housing market. Hence, we are looking at 7% of 5% of the economy: 0.35%. If housing impacts 15% of the economy because of sympathetic spending, that roughs out to a 1% GDP decline.
If there would be more attention paid to the strong run-up in home prices in preceeding years (limiting the impact of modest near-term price declines for most consumers), the impact of demographics and second home buying (sure it’s an asset, but it is also where many are deciding to spend their golden years), and the fact that interest rates are falling in tandem with housing prices (raising affordability), you have the makings of less dramatic outcome in housing.
While I love “The Big Picture”, I am amazed that so many smart folks are so focused on such a narrow slice of the economy, and are shocked, shocked! that the economy has not fallen into the abyss.
Maybe “The Big Picture” should be renamed, “the narrow opinion”
For stocks, as the saying goes, Wall Street climbs a wall of worry.
I’ve been a lurker but I finally have to comment: Been in this business for over 20 years; started at Bear Stearns. There is nothing like you chest pounding monkeys on a day when the market is rallying.
You guys make me laugh — and I am mostly long.
I watched guys like some of the posters here (and lets not forget Cramer) posture when things where good. I am old enough to remember the 1970s, when they hid under their desks, not taking client phone calls, weeping like little girls when the market “suddenly” went against them. It was MUCH worse than 2000.
The market is up, the Bulls are carrying the day, and my portfolio looks great. But I visit this site (and Richard Russell’s and Dennis Gartman’s) because I want to read something more intelligent than the usual cheerleading.
If you don’t get what that, then stick with CNBC and Merrill Lynch. Y’all deserve each other. You guys can stare at your 4 panel screens all you want, as the market goes up and up.
This too will pass . . .
Hey Larry….. FYI, Caps Lock is the 3rd button down on the left…. or were you just needing some special attention this morning?
Speaking of the market rendering a verdict on the economy, growth, inflation, or what have you, anybody paying attention to the bond market U-Turn here? We were up almost a full point in the long bond at one point. We’re up just 14 ticks now.
The day is still young, of course, so maybe this is just intraday noise. But technically speaking, 10-year notes look like they failed at a multi-year downtrend line several days ago (chart at my blog), and they’re struggling to hold the post-CPI gains now. With oil prices back up … money flooding the global economy … and economic growth overseas remaining healthy, maybe the best news on the inflation front is BEHIND us, not ahead of us. Just a thought/theory for public consumption
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com
Well, there is something Americans usually miss, is that the US market is up since 2003, but really only in USD terms.
As a foreign investor, you mostly lost your time investing in the US, because you lost whatever gains you had because of the declining dollar. No one talks about that, but it is in my view pretty important.
I understand most of you guys are pretty US-centric, but this USD weakening is probably going to continue, because deficits do matter.
“Food prices fell, as orange juice went to record highs, and corn is up 70% since August, while wheat is near 10 yr highs.”
And from this, your analysis, your “Reality Check,” says that consumer food inflation must be higher, despite the fed stats. Let’s add some rigor to the analysis. You may be right, but it doesn’t follow from these observations. The price of a loaf of bread, for example – what consumers actually experience – does not reflect the rise in wheat prices. Nor do people drink only orange juice or eat only bread or cereal.
You’re correct regarding tuition, but even this story is more complex than your comments suggest. Public school hikes (and costs) are typically much less than those at private schools, and many private schools provide need and merit-based aid that can take a big bite out of the published cost, depending on the school. In addition, increases are picked up by bigger loans, and the sting from these won’t be felt until later.
You’ve been expressing deep misgivings regarding the markets and economy for two years Barry, and some of these misgivings have simply not panned out. Meanwhile, the market has steadily risen.
~~~
BR: Let me clarify and correct you wrote (to be more accurate):
1) From a long term perspective, the macro-economic story I have been discussing has been playing out — and fairly precisely at that.
2) From a short term perspective, the trading calls have also worked out (we are not perma-bears and have recommended numerous sectors and stock longs). And we have (for the most part) not got caught short — we’ve had a few short trading calls, but none have been disasters. We did start moving to cash a bit soon, but thats as much a function of risk management as it is market timing.
3) The “rally before the fall” call from the Cult of the Bear was dead on — When i made that, the call for 11,800 on the Dow, 1350 on the SPX, and Nasdaq 2600 was wildly ridiculed — turns out some of that was too conservative.
4) Where I have been dead wrong has been the long term market correction call. With the Dow up 16% that is stinker. But it didn’t tie up any cash and did not prevent me from trading on the long side from June thru the present.
as long as they are still willing to hand me money I am willing to take it. Company balance sheets continue to get healthy for a lot of companies and trading in those is still a pretty good proposition.
Just to follow up on my earlier comment, bonds have now gone completely flat … oops, excuse me, as I type, we’re now in the red on the long bond future. While Gentle Ben might be exchanging high fives on the flight back from China about this CPI reading, I think we have to at least consider the market action. I ask again — is the best inflation news behind us? Or is this just “noise?”
Every market in the world is being manipulated up. That’s a good thing if your long.
Meanwhile, people are being investigated for manipulating the treasury markets, the FX market is one big pegged mess, the equities market has been straight up for six months since Hank P brought in, GS does a futures F**** in plain sight, base metals controlled from the LME which allows market cornering, Amaranth gets caught red handed trying to corner, and so on.
The problem for me is what it says about the whole concept of the market place. If we believe in the free market as a fair and open price discovery mechanism, we should keep it free and honest. That goes for longs and shorts alike.
Government in the middle of the muddle supporting the big speculators is not good capitalism. It’s fascism or communism or whatever.
Meanwhile, enjoy the ride up. Who gives a shit about “principles” or free and honest markets.
IMHO, I feel the only factor preventing inflation from accelerating in this country is the fact that real MEDIAN wages are not only negative, but nominally they are growing much less than long term interest rates which I feel are negative. Everytime my wife comes home from the food store she has a frown on her face, ditto all other basic cost of living items either in terms of quality, quantity, or price.
The dollar is worth less than it was.
That means we have inflation.
So the dollar value of the market is up – so what?? If those dollars are worth less, do you really own anything more?
Nope.
From your post – “and the bears and shorts have been vanquished.”
Well if that is the case I will be the first bear to short on Monday….since all have been vanquished. lol
The easiest way to falsely malign this site is to simply say Dow 6800 never happened, therefore everything else here is false. Lets clarify a few items (to be more accurate):
1) From a long term perspective, the macro-economic story we have been discussing here has been playing out — and fairly precisely at that.
2) From a short term perspective, the trading calls have been better than most. Wron g about MSFT, but right about lots of other sotcks (IBM, ORCL, etc.) We are not perma-bears and have recommended numerous sectors and stock longs).
And, we have (for the most part) not got caught short — we’ve had a few short trading calls, but none have been disasters. We did start moving to cash a bit soon, but thats as much a function of risk management as it is market timing.
3) None of the (perma-bulls) ever want to discuss the “rally before the fall” call from the Cult of the Bear — that was dead on. When I made that call (11,800 on the Dow, 1350 on the SPX, and Nasdaq 2600) it was wildly ridiculed — turns out some of that was too conservative.
4) Where I have been dead wrong has been the long term market correction call. With the Dow up 16% that is stinker. But it didn’t tie up any cash and did not prevent me from trading on the long side from June thru the present.
From your post – “and the bears and shorts have been vanquished.”
Well I guess I will be the first bear to go short on Monday. lol
Barry: You have been negative on the economy, housing and the stock markets all year. So, please don’t tell me that you invested otherwise……
Larry — you guys like to cherry pick what you want, and ignore the rest.
FOR THE RECORD:
I have been very vocal about the decaying fundamentals, and I also have discussed (ad nauseum) the sliding housing market.
But in addition to that, I have made numerous long side calls in print and on radio and TV.
I am not suggesting my general commentary about the economy has been anything short of looking for an eventual recession (it has) or that I don’t think this entire house of cards comes crashing down sooner rather than later (it likely will) — but to say I have been “only one way” is simply factually incorrect.
I just checked our offices compliance docs, and this year alone, on TV and Radio this year I have rec’d a ton of longs:
I was Bullish on Gold (GLD), Oil (BP, WMB COP), and Asia (EWJ, EWY, EWA EWM)
Specific long recs: IBM, ORCL, MOS, SWY, CPB, MDRX ACE GOOG WDC KBH CDE GOLD GFI amongst others.
I said on Bloomberg Radio what a great buy You Tube was (free!) for Google (at $395), and I would sell GOOG if it hit $500
I also have been repeatedly saying thru most of this run that its been too early to short —
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/10/getting_closer.html
(Recently, I have put out small short positions)
If you recall, we had a damned good bottom call over the summer that made money — See this:
Markets Sketching Out a Tradable Low
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/06/markets_sketchi.html
And Real Money readers will tell you that our purchase of Q calls near that June bottom right before expiration was a huge money maker on the long side — It caused Norm Conley to write the following:
Crash semantics
6/15/2006 4:40 PM EDT
“. . . your speculative buy of the June QQQ calls was the single best trading call I’ve read in quite some time. Phenomenal.”
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/dps/cc/20060615/columnistconversation1.html#entryId10292075
Here are the specific calls, as posted in real time on Real Money:
Interesting Q Option Trade
6/14/2006 2:12 PM EDT
For speculators only: The June 38 QQQQs, which expire Friday, are now trading at a nickel by a dime. If the Qs see a 1 point rise between now and week’s end, they should go out at about 50 cents or so. If not, they expire worthless. Only buy what you are willing to see go to zero…
Position: Long Q calls.
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/dps/cc/20060614/columnistconversation1.html#entryId10291739
Calls were picked up at a nickel and a dime; The first partial sell — up 350 – 700% — overnight:
QQQQ 38 Calls Trade
6/15/2006 11:34 AM EDT
Yesterday’s option trade — buy the Q 38 calls for a dime — has seen a nice pop along with the market. If you want to hold some for expiry tomorrow, that’s fine — but I am a seller of half the position at 35 cents. Bulls, bears and pigs …
Position: Long QQQQ calls, QQQQ.
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/dps/cc/20060615/columnistconversation1.html#entryId10291957
The rest of the sale, up 750-1500% over 25 hours
Out of the Q calls
6/15/2006 3:46 PM EDT
I just let the other half of the Q calls go at 75 cents; Perhaps there is some more upside, but that’s about as much patience as I can muster. Thanks for the emails on this; your kind words are always appreciated. Cody, I haven’t forgotten about you and will get back to you after the bell.
Position: still long QQQQs
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/dps/cc/20060615/columnistconversation1.html#entryId10292055
So again, I am not backing away form the generally ursine demeanor — but it is simply incorrect to say that I have said and done only negaitve comments . . .
Barry: You have been negative on the economy, housing and the stock markets all year. So, please don’t tell me that you invested otherwise……
“So again, I am not backing away form the generally ursine demeanor — but it is simply incorrect to say that I have said and done only negaitve comments . . .”
Only? Ok, sprinle in some “long calls” if you like and I’m positive that it still comes up negative.
“Larry — you guys like to cherry pick what you want, and ignore the rest”
You guys? What you guys? I post for me and most of your readers would never agree with me on anything (especially housing / real estate).
All in the interest of clarity:
“From a long term perspective, the macro-economic story I have been discussing has been playing out — and fairly precisely at that.”
1) Can you be more precise then – what are the key elements of this story that have played out?
2) Through August of this summer you stuck with your call that the market would crash this fall (Sept/Oct). If your macro story that this call was based on played out precisely as you say, did the market ignore the data, or did it interpret it differently (in which case, what good are correct macro calls?)?
“The rally before the fall call from the Cult of the Bear was dead on — When i made that, the call for 11,800 on the Dow, 1350 on the SPX, and Nasdaq 2600 was wildly ridiculed — turns out some of that was too conservative”
Yes, but to place this in perspective, you were calling a short-term bounce off a summer dive. The market bounced all right, and then kept on going for reasons you didn’t anticipate. You can interpret this as being half right if you choose.
That’s looking back. Looking forward, I know you’re staying with your macro view regarding the economy. Are you staying with a market crash scenario as well (and, if so, have you abandoned dating these?)?
July 19th: “So last nite was a Kudlow & Company appearance; Larry was absurdly complimentary on my “Avoid BIg Cap Tech like the Plague” call. They asked about my cash position (93%), and very amusingly ran video showing mattresses (get it? stuffing cash in mattresses) It was funny.”
93%
It’s interesting how Larry seems to spend more time at this blog than at MillionaireNow (MillionaireLater-SoICanSpendTimeAtBigPicture I guess? ).
Barry, If I were you, I’d chuckle at that!
Btw keep up the good work. Any fool can toss a coin, make a prediction about the direction of the market and be right 50% of the time. That doesn’t mean they have a cogent argument about why it should/would go up. I visit big picture to read your analysis about the state of the economy and in that regard, you’re great!
93%!!??
Nicely done, Larry.
Holy Mother, I knew Barry was a bery funny bear from Jellystone Park, but I had no idea he was just plain stuck on stupid to the tune of 93% mattress stuffing.
It’s the same old, same old: The usual suspects, the serial brain-dead permabears, won’t be participating in all the 2007 fun!
Yes, I tightened stop losses before leaving on vacation — some managers simply move to all cash — and came back 10 days later to find myself stopped out of winning positions and nearly all cash.
I wrote: “We had our traders raise the stops throughout the July 4th week, and I came back from holiday to discover that the fund was mostly (~93%) in cash.”
Some of that moolah was redeployed upon returning but by no means all of it. Any cash held leads to underperformance in an up market. Again, do not get me wrong, since Q3 I have clearly been running with more cash than would maxmize returns (ie, zero cash) and have therefore underperformed the indices.
But please get the context right . . .
why the hell is Larry so hostile, more importantly who let him out of his hole?
hey BR, to counter all these hater types can you provide performance figures YTD, past 1,3,5 yrs? or better yet risk adjusted performance- thx
On the hedge fund, SEC rules do not permit marketing (and perf stats are considered marketing) but I can say generally we were outperforming until September, when the indices slowly caught up and then passed us as we carried more and more cash — we are somewhat underperforming YTD, but not by very much)
The managed accounts are all slightly different, but we are up about 19% YTD in them. Most are req’d to be nearly fully inv (either all long or long short) with very little cash