I mentioned Neighberoo in this weekend’s linkfest. Here’s a few fascinating series of Real Estate related maps :
Collateral Risk
Home Prices
Foreclosure Activity
Note that these are a product of integrating Google Maps with housing and population data.
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Two footnotes from Neighboreroo:
Collateral Risk Index is a unique way
of measuring investment risk in local real estate markets. When
reviewing home loan applications, lending institutions not only look at
the borrower’s finances and the property’s value, they evaluate risk
and volatility in the property’s neighborhood. The index accounts for
property and neighborhood characteristics, as well as local market
trends, flipping, fraud and default activity. The lower risk scores in
a lot of the areas may be positive news relative to future distressed
markets. Employment, the economy, interest rates and the conversion of
fixed to adjustable mortgages all affect the risk of defaults and
foreclosures, but mortgage lenders are being more careful about the
loans that they are making now.
Foreclosure Rate measures
the number of residential properties that have gone into foreclosure
during the previous three years at the neighborhood level and then the
percentages are consolidated to reflect the distressed property
activity at the zip code level. Foreclosure is the legal proceeding in
which a bank or other secured creditor sells or repossesses a parcel of
real property due to the owner’s failure to comply with an agreement
between the lender and borrower called a “mortgage” or "deed of trust”.
Commonly, the violation of the mortgage is a default in payment of a
promissory note, secured by a lien on the property.
Nice catch on finding Neighboroo– it’s a cool site (as is zillow, for those who haven’t seen that one).
I wish Neighboroo added one or two levels of “zoom”, though. I suppose they do not do so by choice; knowing how much money your next door neighbor makes might raise privacy concerns.
This complacent market needs a loud wake up call. The phone rings when one/few homebuilders and a few subprime mortgage originators will announce their bankruptcy.
Well, you can’t exactly claim the phone hasn’t been ringing.
Since December 2006, of the 25 largest subprime lenders, 23 have either closed, restated earnings or are up for sale/sold by their parent according to Bianco Research.
It’s so cold and inhuman, Barry. Look at the dots on the map. Look at the different colors. Look at this. Look at that.
Sheesh.
How about a picture of an evicted family out on the street trying to figure out how it went wrong and what to do next?
To Garuda – If you’re going to mention the suffering family you’re also going to need to add a photo of the generic 24 year old flipper who bought 5 houses at inflated prices with the help of a shady mortgage broker and complicit appraiser, who also got cash back and was using the housing market to gamble.
You can’t leave out Greenspan’s rate tomfoolery and investor greed from this equation. If you’re really incapable of understanding the documents you signed when making the biggest financial decision of your life then yes, you need protection, from yourself.
Look at Michigan; A state government on the Zimbabwe model.
Also spare a thought for the suffering family priced out of the market because of all these buffoons.
My job is to look at the macro data, and draw conclusions.
The “micro stuff” I leave to the sociologists and political scientists
RB – Just wait a year or two and you’ll pick them up on the CHEAP. When blood is running in the streets its time to buy!
You can project an approximate timeline based on Paul Kasriel’s December post on Safe Haven with Chart 3 – The relationship between housing starts and 1 Family Homes for Sale.
Based on analysis of that chart I believe we have a year or two to go to see the peak to peak…..or to say it another way….market bottom. Although it may approach more rapidly as the rapid demise in subprime lending as of late is unprecedented.
Link: http://www.safehaven.com/article-6548.htm
The family out on the street were buffoons as well. If any of you bleeding hearts feel that bad for them, cut them a check and save your heartfelt whining. But you’ll just want to raise taxes to give them someone else’s money.
I don’t know who your comments are addressed towards Mark — but I’m not implying that anybody should cut any slack for those that willingly took on suicide loans and have to pay the price as a consequence. The same people would have been gloating if house prices had gone up instead.
Great maps… those are very interesting. I’ve always been drawn to the visual representation of data, and those map’s are awesome. Thanks for posting that. I’ve been reading your site for a while, and you’ve got some great info. I just started keeping a blog, check it out: New York Real Estate
Let me know what you think.
Eric
“Well, you can’t exactly claim the phone hasn’t been ringing.”
Michael C.,
You are correct.
ResMae, based in Brea, California, is the third to file for bankruptcy protection in the past two months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4ARkN0vGerE&refer=home
Alan’s rate cuts were what the crystal-ball was suggesting at the time. Remember how deflation was increasing at exponential rates? I think everyone needs to realize, (and I am sure that most here do…this is just a reminder), that moving the economy in the right direction is akin to steering a super-tanker using a canoe paddle. My concern here is that if things do get terribly worse, our society will need as many level-headed people as possible, in order to get out of the mess… Remember past reccessions/depressions, and the blame game that inevitable takes place. Some social discontent is mounting; whoever thinks that the middle class and poor people of this country, while surfing through their cable television channels do not feel a tinge of discuss when viewing the many programs that depict “America’s affluent in yachts, and 20 mil. dollar homes, etc., must be shealtering in a totally isolated environment.
Get an updated graph of the foreclosure activity toward the end of 2007, you’ll see a lot more red in CA than you see now.
Who cares about the middle class? If you really think that “Joe Public” has access to the upper class you living a dream. Leveraged living does not= wealth. Put dowwn the credit cards, stay out of the malls and save!