Not Yet!
March 6, 2007 3:47pm by Barry Ritholtz
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Thanks, Barry! One of my favorites. I love the expression on the Bear’s face. Haha…
Love the bear! On today’s trading… Does anyone else think it was more than coincidental that the market had liftoff from the morning fade right at 12 noon, when the verdict of the Libby trial was announced?? The cynic in me says it was no coincidence, but a ploy by the powers-that-be (PPT) to have the headlines of the evening news be about the recovery of the stock market, rather than the Libby verdict. I HATE THE @#%^*^%$#$ BUSH ADMINISTRATION!!!
Comeback Shows Selloff Was Overdone
So, it paid to pick again. It paid to buy the ugliest moment, which was the close Monday. The third retest of the Tuesday selloff held Monday. And Hank Paulsen’s a hell of a Treasurer.
Now we have to contemplate how much of the week-ago selloff was totally mechanical. The 550-point decline — which is what I saw it as — sparked rumors of major liquidations and troubles.
Maybe it was just technological error.
I’m not saying the market won’t go down again. I am saying that we were overdone.
We saw bogeymen everywhere because of that horrid day.
If the machines had worked, it wouldn’t have played out as it did. We would have been down, but it wouldn’t have felt so cataclysmic.
Good lesson.
I obviously don’t agree with Jim, and think he is utterly complacent in this instant . . .
Is that the real Jim Cramer posting?
Bettinaz said Does anyone else think it was more than coincidental that the market had liftoff from the morning fade right at 12 noon, when the verdict of the Libby trial was announced?
I think 0.01%, probably less, of traders couldn’t care less about the libby verdict whether it was front page in bold or buried in the headlines.
The market was heavily washed out short term as indicated by odd lot short sales and the heaviest put activity in years for example. At yesterday’s close, Asian futures were indicating another heavy down day for the Nikkei and Hang Seng. When they opened heavy green, the negative sentiment was lifted and never revisited.
Hank who? Nobody in the markets cares about the Treasury Secretary, especially not one made toothless by his executive. BB, however, made it clear that while the strike price of the Bernanke Put might be lower than the old Greenspan Put, that it was there.
I’ll fight the Treasury all day, but I will never fight the Fed.
I have done some research on the SP 500. The shortest correction recovery period was 2 weeks (10 market days) the longest, was 23 weeks and the average is 14 weeks.
Yesterdays low at the close will be the next support for now which is SPY 137.40.
Unfortunately, the next (bounce off) support after that is right around 132.00. This was found with a weird average of 165 days, but it was a moving average that the SPY has recovered and bounced off of everytime. It will be interesting if we test these lows, or move out of this downside. SPY was down slightly after the close and did come down the the last 45 minutes of market.Dropped from 140.11 to 139.71 which is small considering the gains for the day. On a 12 month chart, looks like their is more downside coming. I think the problems that caused the correction last week, run deeper, and have more to them, than this up day we had today. SPY did break through the five day moving average of 140.01, which is one less barrier to the up side
It is pointless to argue with faithaholics.
All I can say is the next time I see George W. take a perp walk on the floor of the NYSE I’m sellin’ everything. Again.
My first time post here. Although have watched Barry for a long time on tv.
This is such a funny ad. and very apt: makes u wonder if the curtains ever fall on those obnoxious (kudlowesque) bulls.
Today’s rally might be just a dead cat bounce. I wouldn’t be surprised if the bear makes a curtain call…
Barry,
That was excellent !!!. As a former bull in 2000, who got slapped & spanked, I can tell u that this is not a year 2000 market. I am not saying this market won’t go down. But 2000 is some kind of market, every body and their brother threw money at it. Not only they threw money at it, they(including me) bought declines like crazy with the hope of winning that nasdaq 5000 lottery ticket.
Now, lot of ordinary folks(like me) after burnt in 2000, they haven’t participated in this bull market. I don’t think, I will ever see that kind of market in my life time.
This bull is primarily financial professional’s bull market. They way we get 2000 market is it needs to continue this for another decade with 5% declines and outsized gains(30%). People need to feel the urgency of missing the boat. We don’t have that yet.
Great cartoon! Erin Burnett said something before the bell with the futures ramping, “Just like the tortoise and the hare.” I don’t know what she was referring to or if she meant “Just like Hansel and Gretel” or “Just like Shrek and Fiona,” but it was very odd. I think it represented hope.
The bull market has gone on for 4 years now. Folks are complacent again. With the market being rattled last week, folks are hoping that everyone forgets about it, shakes it off, and that the market returns to new bull market highs in the short term and new all-time highs shortly thereafter.
Just like the tortoise and the hare. I guess.
Stocks still aren’t cheap on trailing earnings and forward earnings estimates by the sell-side are a complete joke (they’ve never held any sort of leading indicator or stock performance). The list of reasons why we’re headed for a serious decline is too long to post. I just don’t like the risk/reward at these valuations and given the leverage in the system. Hank is talking like the banker he is regarding the subprime lenders and the spillover effects. He’s a salesman so buyer beware.
Bernanke is calling for more stringent standards for home mortgages after the horse is already out of the barn. The first course of action should be outlawing Fannie and Freddie from purchasing subprime home mortgages,which along with the no doc and negative amortization loans have no place in home mortgages anyhow. There should be a cap on how far the limits on credit card debt levels can be raised yearly of the same percentage as the increase of the cardholders yearly income from the previous year. It’s time for the savings rate to turn positive and for the trade deficit to go down or at least stay flat as the economy grows. The alternative is mathematically possible, but not economically or politically. It’s a fairy tale.
Hi All,
It was nice to see the market finally bouncing in a significant way!
In fact, 23 of the 273 groups we track had +100% breadth today. 3 of these 23 were the Exchange Traded funds OIH (Oil Services Trust HOLDRS), SMH (Semiconductor HOLDRS) and XLE (SPDR Energy). The strongest overall Industry today was Metals & Mining at +87% (the subindustry Silver was one of the groups that had +100% breadth).
The 2 weakest overall Industries, those that seemed the least interested in participating in the bounce were Banking and Transportation.
Some nice opportunities appear to be forming folks!
Ralph
http://blog.successfulonlinetrading.com/
“Hey Jim, What do they call it when about 100 firms get together using the same kind of software with the same kinds of input parameters and those programs all buy and sell at the same time? What would they call it in some other marketplace?
Hey, I’m not against world domination, so long as I can get a copy of the software. Who do I have to give the secret code? I watched every single market in the world go up today and said to myself, “Hmmm, they’re rigging the market to make it go up today!” Then I went short some more at 3:55 pm. And I can hold out till “rationality” returns, meaning some of the riggers cheat and head the other way.”
And the demand for the US dollar from foreign central banks went into overdrive the past few days because they either want more of our good paying jobs or want to retain their manufacturing bases.
This a nice farce, but I wonder how professionals organisations can justify to maintain analysts, economists when it is everyday since two years demonstrated in every market of the world in each segment (interest rates, equities) that organised “markets” are the essence.
Why would you purchase Bonds or equities if they can be organised to go downwards or upwards in complete defiance of statistical normal distribution, economic grounds, and financial justifications????
The contrarian theory (contrarian to what? to a trend? a financial or an economic logic?) seems to be a little short of substance when it comes to provide explanations for these gyrations which are proving that the definition of markets is not applicable in the financial sphere.