Today is positivity day at The Big Picture!
Last night on the show, Kudlow said the site was "the best financial blog on the internet, but it made him want to reach for hanky it so depressing." So today will be nothing but positive news, all day, all the time!
Here’s a few headlines:
• Crude oil fell $2.77 to $61.51 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since August 2005.
• The consumer continues to shop — since ~70% of GDP is consumer spendign related, this is good for the economy.
• On Friday, BLS revealed that Unemployment fell to 4.4%; Wages improved.
• The Fed model — a measure of stock valuation using earnings yield versus the
30 year10 year yield, shows that stocks are approximatelty 20-40% undervalued.• Earnings season kicks off this week, and this is expected to be the 20th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth.
• US equity Markets are higher than they were 6 months, 1 year and 5 years ago. The 50 and 200 day moving av erages are positively sloped.
• M&A, share buybacks, and private equity deals continue unabated.
• The Housing market has not caused a collapse in the economy or the stock markets
• Senator John McCain says the surge appears to be working!
And look at this: the weather forecast for today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
I feel so dirty now . . .
I can contribute.
DHI announced today that it’s quarterly cancellation rate didn’t get worse!
(It didn’t improve, either)
I bet your dog (and Mrs. BP) ignores you for a couple days. That’ll teach you to talk positive on Kudlow and make silly promises. I bet LK doesn’t have a dog (or vice versa). Even in the animal kingdom there is respect.
Where is Barry Ritholtz and what did you do to him? If you don’t release him right now, I’m calling the FBI and Arthur Laffer.
Barry–you may want to check your cold medicine dosage!
In truth, though, we tend to focus on the negative aspects rather than the positive. But we also have a tendency to underestimate (or at the very least) mis-time calamities. I’m not quite sure how the good v. bad should be probability weighted.
As an aside…to BR and to BR’s readers: which blogs to you consider to be top notch (including/among the blogs listed to the left)?
Barry, don’t give in. These positive bias posts are boring. Reminds me of a line from Spaceballs: “And now you see that evil will always prevail, because good is dumb.”
This ranks right up there with the Stephen Roach capitulation last spring.
More fuel;
Thousands take to the streets in Iraq to celebrate the aniversary of their liberation.
China sees relations so good with U.S. they see no need to attend G7 meetings.
with all the “good” news it should be a red day for wall street….. :-)
gold 680$ signaling strong demand for jewellery… lol!
McCain won’t win the presidency because he is stubborn about his position about the Iraq war. someone ought to go in there and give him a view from the street.
“The Housing market has not caused a collapse in the economy or the stock markets”
The sentence needs “yet” — to reflect the reality.
“The Housing market has not ‘yet’ caused a collapse in the economy or the stock markets”
Been watching Fox News?
and number one reason to be happy—no Imus for two weeks!!!!
Might as well move to Jersey and get a job with CNBC.
CAH-CHING!
“In truth, though, we tend to focus on the negative aspects rather than the positive. But we also have a tendency to underestimate (or at the very least) mis-time calamities.”
Turning back the clock 25 years to my college days, “The Fate of the Earth” and “How to Profit During the Coming Bad years” were best sellers. Biblical prophecy about the coming end of the world was a growth industry (Hal Lindsay, et al.). we were running out of oil. Reagan was going to blow up the planet. Etc etc.
Of course, we were actually at the beginning of a major economic expansion and bull market and the USSR would not survive the end of the decade. There is something to those sentiment indicators.
Its more like “balanced” day
Delicious Sarcasm.
And the trade balance is still growing positively the way it was before!
Oh. I get it!
Balance is when you make an equal number of incorrect statements interspersed with correct statements.
That explains “Fair and Balanced” perfectly.
Apparently we are entering an era where all information, correct or not is “equal”.
This isn’t recency, it’s retardation.
John McCain is the new and improved Bob Dole.
I can contribute:
Housing worries deepen on DR Horton sales slump.
Citigroup Chief Executive Charles O. Prince III plans to eliminate or reassign more than 26,000 jobs, or 8 percent of its work force.
Improved Bob Dole is an oxymoron.
Candide and I thank you for taking us up on our invitation the other day. Welcome to the best of all possible worlds, sit down and have a beer with Mr Lereah.
Enjoyed Mike Larson’s column the other day http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=743&cat_id=6&
which got me to thinking, all the great minds at work on this blog, let’s put them to use by having you run a contest to identify the NEXT BIG THING – leveraged buy outs of cornfields, Chinese this that and the other thing, publicly traded hedge funds, global warming futures, or some of those boring traditional alternatives – stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. I mean, if catching the next liquidity wave sloshing around is how to make the big bucks, lets figure it out.
Also any take on all these China trade developments (trade rep resigns for personal reasons (yeah right) hours before the coated paper tarif is announced, now this new round of beating on them over intellectual properties and limited American market access in china) and how it might all play out, dollar decline/inflation impact etc or is this all talk that will go puff and not impact anyone?
Lewis
after all the happy talk, aren’t you supposed to ask for contributions so’s you can keep on spreadin’ the word all around the world?
Barry-
How about those BLS numbers!!! Although I did’nt see your spot on krudlow last night I bet not one of you guys mentioned that in order to get that “low” unemployment # the FEB. AND JAN. numbers were revised again (since Jan.s was revised previously in Feb.) to get that all important 1/10th of a point tick down in the unemployment rate.
Oh sorry this is “positive day”
How about them Yankees??
Cia0
MS
The trade balance the commercial sector has with the government is positive!
The Asian central banks have big account balances at the Fed to protect them from another 1997-style meltdown!
Former sub-prime office space is available for new entrepreneurial ideas!
Iranians, Norwegians, and Nigerians are getting rich!
Temperatures are a bit higher here during Chicago’s winter than when I was born!
Almost of third of Americans think our President is doing a great job!
Don Imus gives us something to talk about!
market still going up, hold onto your shorts
Keeping with the positive theme CNBC has teamed with the National Association of Realtors and is sponsoring its a good time to buy real estate day. They really should call it David Lereah Day.
We’re taking bets here as to when Imus annouces that he has a drinking problem and is headed to rehab. Any takers??
That “strategy” works so well in the past I’m absolutley shocked it has’nt been used…..yet.
Ciao
MS
and by the way…
Does anybody know when the takeover of DOW is going to take place? I can’t decide between the April 50’s or the May’s.
Yay! It’s “Halcyon Tuesday”! I want to join in also!
» Tech stocks rise on Wall St. upgrades
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) – Technology stocks rose early Tuesday, with Applied Materials Inc., Oracle Corp., and Autodesk Inc. gaining on Wall Street upgrades.
for a minute i thought you were serious until you put the McCain quote in. Phew!
And…cue the trapdoor.
uh oh….we may have to change the tone of the day….THE INDEXES ARE STARTING TO TURN RED….OMG, man the lifeboats!!!, batten the hatches……sell it all!!!!!
Because we can’t have ANY negativity..
Ciao
MS
» Tech stocks rise on Wall St. upgrades
While MO & KO lead the DJIA higher for the 8th consecutive day…
John McCain is the new and improved Bob Dole.
John McCain is the new and improved Baghdad Bob.
Good news!
Shares of Kleenex and International Paper rise on Kudlow’s increased use of tissues from reading the BP.
Flash! Pharmaceutical sector rises on news Kudlow may need anti-depressant treatment.
Political commentator near breaking point. Luckily, there is positive treatment available through CNBC insurance.
Phew! All positive!
Hey Kudlow,
I’m so happy and optimistic, if I dropped stone dead right now, it’d take the undertaker 6 weeks and 3 gallons of formaldehyde to get the smile off my face.
Can I come hOmE toO!!
After reading the positives on this blog Cramer has officially declared : “Bears Throwing in Towel”
http://www.thestreet.com/p/index.html
Hey Kudlow,
This is “the best story never told”:
Recession in U.S. Is Expected by Most Americans Within a Year, Poll Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avYkRibHRfDk&refer=home
The good news of the days is that 92% of Citigroup employees will keep their jobs this year.
I must protest. How can you possibly say these are all positive developments? They most emphatically are not. Let’s take them one by one:
• Crude oil fell $2.77 to $61.51 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since August 2005.
This is absolutely terrible news if you are a member of OPEC, or you happen to own oil stocks. Also, it can’t possibly brighten your day if you are worried about global warming.
• The consumer continues to shop — since ~70% of GDP is consumer spendign related, this is good for the economy.
This is awful if you happen to be one of those consumers and you are looking for sales. With demand so strong, who in their right mind will cut prices? And that can mean only one thing: INFLATION.
• On Friday, BLS revealed that Unemployment fell to 4.4%; Wages improved.
More cost-push inflation. That can’t be good news for bonds. Also, if you’re an employer, and you want to hire, say, more hamburger flippers, you’re going to have a much tougher time. Give me 10% unemployment any day.
• The Fed model — a measure of stock valuation using earnings yield versus the 30 year 10 year yield, shows that stocks are approximatelty 20-40% undervalued.
Bad news if you happen to own some of those stocks.
• Earnings season kicks off this week, and this is expected to be the 20th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth.
Bad news if you don’t own stocks, and you’re just waiting for prices to go down so you can buy in.
Plus, all that liquidity sloshing around can only lead to one thing: INFLATION.
• US equity Markets are higher than they were 6 months, 1 year and 5 years ago. The 50 and 200 day moving averages are positively sloped.
Look, if I want to buy stocks, the last thing on Earth I want is for markets to be up. I want prices to go down, not up. The fact that prices are higher and the moving averages rising is awful, terrible news. There’s nothing like a good old fashioned market crash to make my day.
• M&A, share buybacks, and private equity deals continue unabated.
I don’t like it. It takes more equity out of the market, which is only going to cause the price of stocks to go even higher. See the two comments immediately above.
Plus, all that debt leverage is going to come home to roost, someday.
• The Housing market has not caused a collapse in the economy or the stock markets
But we NEED a collapse in the stock market in order for valuations to get low enough to allow me to buy in. Oh, please let the markets collapse.
Plus, if the housing market doesn’t kill consumer demand, what incentive will there be for retailers to put things on sale?
• Senator John McCain says the surge appears to be working!
Please define what you mean by “working.”
Sorry, but I’m not buying this “positive Tuesday” B.S. It looks like more of the same old BR to me.
By God it worked!
The major indexes reached their highest levels in six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.71 to 12573.85, that octet of gains marking its longest advancing streak since March 2003. The blue-chip index is up 0.9% year to date.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117620438864064986.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Barry has capitulated; he has gone to the dark-side; its a top!
Barringo, per you:
“I feel so dirty now . . .”
—
Hey, good bu-dd-y… try not to feel so good!… Tomorrow is an old day… C’mon, cheer down!… Don’t be so happy cause we can go back to being worse off tomorrow. Jiss wait, you’ll seE!
It’ll be just like old hard times again!!
There now, that’s a bad fellow. C’mon, c’MoN… let’s see a frown. Give old Eclectic a fRoWn… C’mon… Pleeeeezzzeee!
Atta Boy!… Thassthuh Barringo we all know.
—
It’s The Bizarro Super Big Pic
it’s always hard when it rains it pours… but remember there is always a rainbow after!
deication: Jason no matter what i’ll always love you!
xoxox
it’s always hard when it rains it pours… but remember there is always a rainbow after!
deication: Jason no matter what i’ll always love you!
xoxox