Rhymes with Lira, sounds like zero!
Via Bill Fleckenstein, comes this new name for the dollar — the Xera!
Introducing the Xera:
Thanks to the suggestion put forth by a reader of my daily column, I have come up with the new name for our currency. Henceforth, it shall be called the xera. That’s a combination of Xerox, for the piece of Xerox paper that it is; lira, which in the past was one of the world’s chronically weak currencies; and, most importantly, the fact that it sounds like zero. That is ultimately where the xera is headed.
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Source:
The Fed digs us a deeper hole
Bill Fleckenstein
Contrarian Chronicles
MSN 11/5/2007 12:01 AM ET
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheFedDigsUsADeeperHole.aspx
That dollar??? oh that sound you hear is it having a 75 handle on it…..momentarily it will occur.
Ciao
MS
Bernanke will be remembered as the Fed governor who presided over the demise of the dollar as the reserve currency. They can spin all they want. Here is an amusing story from WSJ blog. Anyone believe this guy?
Larry Meyer: I’d Be a Dove on This Fed
As a governor of the Federal Reserve from 1996 to 2002, Laurence Meyer had a reputation as one of its most hawkish policy makers. After a quarter-point rate increase in 1997, the Journal ran an editorial called “The Meyer Fed?” attacking his hawkish rationale for tighter monetary policy.
Meyer
But Mr. Meyer, now a Fed watcher at his old firm, Macroeconomic Advisers, feels like a soft-money inflationist next to the current crew running the central bank.
The Fed, he says, left last week’s meeting, at which it cut rates by a quarter point, “with even more resolve” not to cut rates again. “The markets may have pushed the FOMC into a cut in October, but we think the message is: ‘Push us once, you win. Push us twice, you pay!’ This is one of the most hawkish Committees that I can recall … Put it this way: I would be the dove on this committee today, and I don’t usually do even a good imitation of a dove.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/11/05/larry-meyer-id-be-a-dove-on-this-fed/
I had a headline on my Reuters this morning that said that the dollar’s weakness has caused some to speculate the Fed would cut rates again. Seriously. It seems to have been deleted now, but that one boggled the mind when I saw it.
Well, there’s a coming niche opportunity for someone: customized wheel barrels to carry your dollars when shopping.
Nixon didn’t care too much for the Lira. I’m afraid we don’t have the same choice with the Xera. That said, we are getting closer to an intervention, but the US won’t lead it, except nominally — we don’t have enough FX reserves.
wheelbarrow assumes you’ll still have dollars to shop with, whatever their value. this market looks like it wants to take a lot of folks’ $$$$, after having taken their house $$$$. not sure what people are going to be left with. Oil and Gold at 30 year highs reminds you how the market and economy looked circa 1970s. we may need wheelbarows just to get around…
It’s obvious why the dollar should drop. At this point in time, it’s the dumb money trade to be short the dollar. What isn’t so obvious to dumb money is why the dollar should go up. If one believes smart money has led this rally in global assets higher while pushing the dollar lower, then one will continue to believe the dollar should drop ad infinitum. If one realizes lunacy drove the biggest global asset bubble in history and maybe those same dolts are shorting the dollar, then one might realize trashing the dollar here is a fool’s game. Just a thought.
We are getting a little carried away!!!(at least for now)
At this point it’s really a tug of war between lousy fundamentals pushing it lower vs a very crowded short side trade with technicals cautioning a knee jerk rebound. 12 months out, I’ll consider it fortunate if it still has a 7 handle at the start of its IDX.
Seems to me that if you believe the Fed will not cut again, then you also have to believe that i) the problems in the banking system are over and ii) the Fed exists to serve the American people rather than the private banks that own it. So who believes that?
Is that the turkish or italian lira?
IT’S TIME FOR ANOTHER TAX CUT!!!
How can the USD be a “crowded short”? Is that even possible? Is there enough hot money in the world to affect the USD when Asia alone holds over $1.5 trillion in reserve?
Am I naive, or can mo-mo traders truly affect the value of the USD?
Old Ari,
It’s the Italian Lira.
/Fleck subscriber
alexp,
It’s not how much is held – it’s how much is traded at any one time. Asia could hold $20 trillion, and if they aren’t trading them, then to the active market, they pretty well don’t exist…of course, the danger is that Asia could decide to dump at any time, at least theoretically. In actuality, I’m looking for China to start dumping dollars and buying Yen (boy are they pissed at Japan right about now!) shortly after the Bejing Olympics. How shortly? Well, as soon as everyone stops looking for them to do so (as I’m sure I’m not alone in this view), or as soon as the ‘Decider’ pulls one of his typical stupid moves, and gives them the excuse. However, I’m certain that it’s an if-not-when situation.
i reckon the same people buying Euro’s at 1.45 and calling for the dollar’s collapse are the same ones who were selling the Euro back in 2001 at 0.86 and saying it was just about to drop off the cliff…
The Euro has fundamental problems as a currency, Sterling has fundamental problems with a credit bubble (way bigger than the US’s), the Yen has problems getting growth in its economy.
Other Asian currencies are still a screaming buy, but I think the $ is a better bet than the Euro and Sterling at the moment, Yen is less clear but probably still favours the dollar on the interest-rate differential.
In the next year, maybe Bush will resurrect a variation of Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” or WIN campaign.
A good quote from the speech is “You and the American people should know, however, that I have personally been assured by the Chairman of the independent Federal Reserve Board that the supply of money and credit will expand sufficiently to meet the needs of our economy and that in no event will a credit crunch occur.
The prime lending rate is going down.”
http://www.millercenter.virginia.edu/scripps/digitalarchive/speeches/spe_1974_1008_ford
I agree with the theme of the post. But the writeoff at Citi has not wiped out the last 5 years of earnings by any stretch of the imagination.
I agree with the theme of the post. But the writeoff at Citi has not wiped out the last 5 years of earnings by any stretch of the imagination.
Jellis wrote, “But the writeoff at Citi has not wiped out the last 5 years of earnings by any stretch of the imagination.”
No, but it isn’t a stretch to say it did wipe out the last 5 years of imaginary earnings.
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