Here’s something kinda funny: The writing or commentary I do is rarely quoted in the NYT; For whatever reason, the work seems to find its way into the WSJ, Barron’s, Reuters, AP, etc.
So its kind of cool to see not one but two quotes — today and yesterday — in the NYTimes.
Yesterday’s quote was the very last paragraph of the front page article, Central Bankers to Lend Billions in Credit Crisis:
"Still, several analysts contended that the plan might raise more doubts about whether even bigger problems loomed. “It smacks of panic,” Barry Ritholtz wrote on his widely read economics blog, the Big Picture, “and suggests the Fed is very worried.”
Today’s quote is more specific:
“We are not remotely close” to the bottom of the housing market, said Barry L. Ritholtz, chief executive and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, “until we get this huge inventory worked out.”
Mr. Ritholtz, who writes on the popular blog The Big Picture, also noted that during the housing boom, rising real estate wealth helped support a lot of consumer spending. Americans were tapping nearly $250 billion worth of home equity every quarter in the form of second mortgages and refinancings. That represented nearly 10 percent of disposable income. For the third quarter of this year, though, equity withdrawals fell to about $170 billion, or 6.6 percent of disposable income, according to data from the Federal Reserve."
Cool stuff, although I could hear my mother’s voice: "Would it have killed them to embed a link . . . ?"
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UPDATE: December 14, 2007 9:15am
If you count online, then its 3X in one week — thanks to Paul Krugman’s NYT blog post: Bubble denial
And congrats to Calculated Risk, whose excellent work was cited in Krugman’s op-ed column today, After the Money’s Gone.
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Sources:
Economy Holding Up, Reports Find
By VIKAS BAJAJ
NYT, December 14, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/business/14econ.html
Central Bankers to Lend Billions in Credit Crisis
VIKAS BAJAJ and FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, December 13, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/13/business/13fed.html
You Da Man!!!
It’s always nice to see another financial blogger’s material picked up like this. Congrats.
And your mom’s right…
The last ATM for the consumer….
Employees Raiding 401(k)s, CFOs Say
The economic slump will cut into employee bonuses, new survey results show, even as many workers are already taking hardship withdrawals from their retirement funds.
Alan Rappeport
CFO.com | US
December 5, 2007
The weakening American economy is beginning to take its toll on corporate employees where it hurts the most: their salaries and savings.
The latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which polls 573 finance chiefs in the U.S. and 1,275 globally, finds that year-end employee bonuses will fall by 10 percent this year compared to 2006. That decline could be especially painful at a time when more employees are dipping into their retirement accounts in order to pay bills.
“In the last four or five months we have seen an absolute onslaught of people trying to do hardship withdrawals and loans out of 401(k)s,” Mark Anderson, CFO of Granite City Electric, told CFO magazine in October. “What has happened with housing and the economy has really blown up for people at the lower end of the spectrum.”
CFOs attribute the 401(k) withdrawals to the effects of the shaken credit markets and higher costs of living, among other reasons. Those concerns have affected companies from top to bottom. Nearly a third of CFOs polled in the survey said their firms have been directly hurt by credit conditions.
To make up for the prospect of slower growth in the future, many companies will raise prices and look for possible mergers. The survey finds that companies expect to raise the prices of their products by 2.8 percent in 2008, an increase from the 2 percent expected in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, 40 percent of U.S. firms said they would seek to buy either all or part of another company.
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/10250117/c_2984379/?f=archives
Mr. Ritholtz who writes “on” the Big Picture…
…is that like being long “of” gold????
the more the MSM picks up your quotes the more difficult it will be to maintain the position that they have their heads in the sand…
BIG PICTURE FOR LIFE SON, HOLLA!!!!
Good job, Barry! I’ve been reading your blog for a few years now, so it makes me kind of sentimental watching you hit the big time after being around when there were just a small number of readers. It’s like watching your kids go off to college. *sniff* I’m getting all misty eyed now…
Congrats ! Well deserved. Hope it means that the stuff you and CalculatedRisk write gets more and wider awareness. You points about a bigger problem in the credit markets are critical as is CR’s assessment of the Housing market. These are NOT Black Swan events because folks like you have been analyzing and reporting on the nature of the trends in ways the rest of us could grasp for some time.
My own feeling is that the scope and the magnitude of the credit crisis is still only barely grasped and NOT reflected in prices and valuations; especially if/when other assets classes get toppled into the mess.
My own take on how this might work out is below along with a survey of other’s writings that have done for the credit problem what you guys have done for these.
Rocks in the Pond Model: http://tinyurl.com/2avnzp
Rocks, Ponds & Perversions: http://tinyurl.com/24zuvo
Credit Mess Readings: http://tinyurl.com/22fl4y
While your Wallstrip interview got it exactly right IMHO on a slowing economy the risks of big & catastrophic suprises is very high.
I guess it’s real now that the government says so…
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November, led by higher prices for gasoline, the Labor Department reported Friday. This is the fastest pace of consumer inflation in more than two years.
I guess it’s real now that the government says so…
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November, led by higher prices for gasoline, the Labor Department reported Friday. This is the fastest pace of consumer inflation in more than two years.
Barry, The NY Times has those lame links that go back to other stories from their archives. I NEVER click on their links.
Great stuff and that has to be one of the coolest mastheads of all times(pardon the pun I just got it as I wrote it). Now all we have to work on is their content
(:
Here’s a HELOC sob story for you. These jerks somehow blew through over a half million $$ in two years. They are now more than $600K in debt, and will probably lose their house that they bought 30 yrs ago…
http://www.ocregister.com/news/loan-countrywide-coffmans-1937672-home-borrowers#s
Barry, The NY Times has those lame links that go back to other stories from their archives. I NEVER click on their links.
really? i’m impressed, i ALWAYS manage to click on their links without meaning to… :)
The Big Picture and Calculated Risk: Doing All My Thinking For Me, Cuz Thinking Is Hard.
(I love you guys)
Also, Vikram Pandit taking over at Citi means one thing: they are slicing and dicing it, and then vulturing it. The equity holders are screwed.