Ugly day today — Dow off 280 to 12,500 as I type this, the Nasdaq down 2.5%. The natural process of washing out excesses will lead to gnashing of teeth and begging for the Fed to intervene. (After all, isn’t it the role of the Fed to backstop speculators?)
My opinion: those people who only believe in free market so long as they are going higher aren’t capitalists, they are socialists.
Here are a few of today’s headlines :
Wall Street to Fed: Cut rates now!
Why Give the Fed the Benefit of the Doubt?
Stocks in U.S. Tumble on Citigroup Earnings, Unexpected Retail-Sales Drop
Creative destruction, baby!
I guess all the bearish sentiment was not yet priced into the market like bulls have been saying … LOL. Here are the next round of roaches that common sense knew would arrive.
Now, if only the bulls could figure out how to engineer a one minute recession and flash in the pan bear markets. Then, and only then, would something in the business cycle truly be different this time …
ECB warns crashing dollar may stop Fed cuts
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/14/bcnfedcut114.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
This headline is an alternate view from the other side of the atlantic
Love the smell of margin calls in the morning… At least it is an orderly meltdown.
Fed in a box. You want fries with that?
Seriously, I hope the system is allowed to cleanse itself for a change.
So we get a rate cut, the dollar tanks, and gas gets more expensive. Again.
This is different from the 70s how?
Oh yeah, in the 70s we had savings….
Oops.
Let the games begin!
games indeed. Here come the much expected hail mary pass from the unknown quarter back hiding behind the goal post. Oh, forgot, no such thing.
“those people who only believe in free market so long as they are going higher aren’t capitalists, they are socialists.”
Only a socialist would say that! (snark)
Hey Barry. How ya been my friend….
How’s the neo-con troll count these days?
Donna gets it. Having been in the Biz back in the stone age 70’s, the only thing that seemed to work were hard assets. The kind that when dropped, hurts your foot.
My opinion: those people who only believe in free market so long as they are going higher aren’t capitalists, they are socialists.
As a socialist, I find this comment offensive. You are describing corporatists. They are similar to socialists in some ways (they want the government to intervene in the market), but differ in what goals the government should have. Corporatists want the government to provide handouts to corporations and rich people, socialists want the government to provide handouts to people who would otherwise starve or be homeless. Socialists don’t care about what happens in the stock market. Socialists and corporatists are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Well, the Labour Party UK has an official platform of “democratic socialism” so are you saying Tony Blair is cheering on our stock market decline?
(Or maybe he’s short the market…)
jkw, if socialists don’t care what happens in the stockmarket then why does michael moore have a large stock portfolio that includes halliburton among its holdings?
Not that I like the market here BUT can we at least wait until the S+P breaks down under the August intraday low around 1370 before we start declaring victory…
that being said if you look at almost all of the individual retail names…the CRASH is well under way…
Now that the bear market is with us, does anyone think it’s just a coincidence we haven’t heard from Fred or Nova Law in months?
Pool Shark:
Isn’t Nova Law the one that was always trying to rip on MS? He wanted to compare portfolio sizes?
Whoops, there goes Intel!
Wow. It’s true! When they raid the whorehouse, they even take the piano player.
Oh where or where has my little dog gone? There it is the “whole Dow,” is a dog… How big of a dead cat do we get now?
>> Socialists and corporatists are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
This would absolutely be true unless one were to consider Socialist Government to be nothing more than Centrally Planned Business. Just a different group with a different name whos ultimate goal is essentially the same.
Hey Bill, did you also know that Michael Moore is fat??
there’s been a sea change when william buckley starts calling for the government to effectively nationalize the mortgage market.
The politics of the matter are at least this clear. The federal government being the only agent that can possibly intervene, it needs to do so, by forbidding the liquidation of mortgages until the disparity between true value and hypothetical value is pounded away by time and inflation — and a revitalization of the functions of the marketplace.
someone might instruct mr. buckley on the difference between a liquidity event that exemplifies a fear-driven departure from sanity — and a solvency event that exemplifies a fear-driven return to sanity.
What’s particularly disturbing is that the market is tanking with the expectation of a 50 to 100 bp cut in ff rate. That’s supposed to be the good news. Ouch!
There’s still “pundits” out there talking about the probability of a recession. Yeah….! Thing’s are looking good, real good.
Best regards,
Econolicious
Joe Klein’s conscience,
Right, and Fred was the perma-bull who was always touting the strength of the U.S. economy.
/they’re probably off somewhere licking their wounds…
And the dollar is rallying today…. go figure. More of the same.
Intel is terrible. Tomorrow a.m. could be the precipice.
20 bucks Benny reams the shorts in a.m.
It’s bad enough to have to battle a bear but to also have to battle an adversarial FED is ridiculous.
is it me or are you short something?
“My opinion: those people who only believe in free market so long as they are going higher aren’t capitalists, they are socialists.”
Agreed.
Hey schumacher… I have noticed that when the markets fall considerably, not only does the PPT no longer exist, but neither do your conspiracy posts! In fact, you don’t post at all! Is there a connection?
I think there is great untapped predictive power in this relation. Studies show that every day that goes by without a schumacher post increases the odds of a surprise rate cut by approx. 15%!
Posted by: BenHatesShorts | Jan 15, 2008 4:44:57 PM
Posted by: amused | Jan 15, 2008 4:45:27 PM
Quickdraw McGraw.
I’m a french fry short of a happy meal.
Does anyone else find it odd that when the major indexes close down 2 to 2.5% the VIX is only up 1.9%? It’s still the “fear index” right? I’m thinking as it was breaking through the first 100 points into the red there was a lot of fear out there, and yet…
where’s MS Schumacher ?
he could say something brilliant about Repos or the PPT
And it’ll get worse before it gets better as this “stimulus” package emerges. Did you see the Reuters story on this? “Immediate short term stimulus works best”. For how long? And did you see where congress wants to get the $500 for every “middle class” home to stave off bankruptcy? By not making them pay FICA “taxes”!! Sure, that makes sense, because “the FICA funds are all flush! Let’s rob them!”
Stupid, stupid, stupid. If you are under water for $200/month on the mortgage you co-conspired your way into, that $500 one-time gift isn’t going to do much for you.
Either let the market work or do something to encourage the speculators with deep pockets (e.g. Europeans who have as much as a 2:1 currency leverage on us at the moment) to take on the risk. How about “buy a home with a ‘distressed’ mortgage with a 15/30 year fixed mortgage and pay no capital gains tax when you sell it” or something like that? It’s not like the gov’t was going to get any gains from the sale anyway.
So just how ugly does it have to get before Larry Kudlow admits things are bad, and then blames it all on the Dems because not extending Bush’s tax cuts is scaring the market.
Love being net short on days like this.
UP 1.25% on the day.
The greatest story never told is that $100,000 cash from a refi mortgage broker stimulated the economy more than a few hundred bucks did when the White House cut taxes …
I still haven’t heard anything in the media about how the economy is supposed to match yoy data when such a huge stash of keg powder is gone. And a few hundred bones of tax cuts surely won’t fill the gap …
Any ideas about what gets the economy started on the next bull run (after this recession)?
Does anyone find it strange that in the m iddle of our credit/banking implosion, our fearless decider is begging the Saudi king to open the spigots and give us more oil. Not only is there no spigot left to turn on, we need to get our consumption under control. But, I guess that someone that gives speeches on democracy in the middle east in a $2,400 a night hotel, wouldn’t undedrstand anything at all about an economic crisis.
Free Market Capitalism SHOULD mean that stocks sell for what people with cash are willing to pay for them…
not what the fed props them up to be by devaluing the savings and purchasing power of everyone else.
[quote]
Does anyone find it strange that in the m iddle of our credit/banking implosion, our fearless decider is begging the Saudi king to open the spigots and give us more oil
[end quote]
Not that I think they have any excess capacity, but assuming they did and they would pump, would that be such a bad move? Of course, we’re conveniently ignoring the fact that the main reason for the visit is arms sales discussions and trying to get the rest of the middle east find a pair and at least TALK tough to Iran. But that’s such a small part of it, really.
Teensy.
Itsy-bitsy.
Does anyone find it strange that in the middle of our credit/banking implosion, our fearless decider is begging the Saudi king to open the spigots and give us more oil.
Because the cost increase is due to a lack of production. Bush policies that crushed the U.S. dollar had nothing to do with it.
Mike G writes:
“Either let the market work or do something to encourage the speculators with deep pockets (e.g. Europeans who have as much as a 2:1 currency leverage on us at the moment) to take on the risk. ”
If I were a European, I’d wait until the market bottomed, wouldn’t you?
The cost increase is demand driven (via the booming global economies), exacerbated by the falling dollar and the fact that the producers, fearful of getting burned like they did in the 90’s, delayed investing the billions to get more capacity online. Bush controls none of these. Hate him for something else. Let it go! Take a deep breath! Move along. *S*
The economist for Minnesota called it a recession for the state today.
State economist: Unemployment figures show Minn. in recession
January 15, 2008
St. Paul, Minn. (AP) — The latest unemployment figures have prompted the state’s economist to say that Minnesota is now in a recession.
Minnesota’s unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent in December, up from 4.4 percent in November. The state has lost 23,000 jobs over the past six months.
It’s the worst series of jobs numbers since the 2001 national economic downturn.
State economist Tom Stinson tells the Star Tribune the numbers mean the state is in a recession, and he can’t label it anything else.
Stinson says that in more normal times the state would add about 23,000 jobs over a year.
Instead the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development says the state lost 700 jobs from this time last year.
there are so many reasons to hate bush. and cheney. republicans generally. love the Greenspan-Paulson news today. Greenies gots to get paid! pity Bernanke, who says he’ll do everything possible, then does little or nothing, because he knows he’s almost out of tricks, on a monthly basis, and knows he’s going to have to take all the cuts back immediately after the election to stem incipient hyper-inflation. funny business. 1250 the first stop, C wants to go to 20 (compare to 1998 LTCM low) but then back to 10 from 1990 recession. long hard slog.
bush begging for saudi oil….not pretty
The perma bulls wish the following:
Intel misses earnings – RATE CUT NOW
Ebay misses earnings – ANOTHER RATE CUT
MSFT guides lower – ADDITIONAL RATE CUT
QCOM guides lower – ONE MORE RATE CUT
01/31/08 – RATE CUT FOR SURE
At some point, you run out of rate cuts folks. I think the floor is zero (I guess).
Suge
Hey, I’ve got an idea. Let’s define an inflation metric that doesn’t actually respond to prices, proclaim our vigilance against inflation, and then just drop the rates, with, of course, much hand wringing. Sure the dollar will plummet, but someone overseas will surely step in to keep good old Uncle Sam from falling off the bar stool. Meanwhile, the ensuing inflation will reduce the real value of our debt, and give us the comfort of no decline in nominal house prices. It’s win-win! And dammit, don’t we deserve a break?
“bush begging for oil”
Don’t be silly. It’s called disingenuous pandering for votes.
I’m reading this blog and I’m watching Larry Kudlow calling a bottom. Kudlow must be living in Mars. He is telling us this is a great time to buy. On Citigroup: “Balance sheet repairs.”
kudlow getting beat up on his show……
One of Larry’s favorite bull stooges, Stefan Abrams, just turned to the dark side on the air.
My challenge to Larry stands…if I’m right on my January 2 call that this will be the worst year in S&P500 history, will you put me on the air?
Ummm. Not really! Was there something targeting those people in the tax cuts? Or are you under the impression that only the “rich” buy SUVs and vans and pickups and other gas guzzlers?
Posted by: Mike G. | Jan 15, 2008 6:47:09 PM
______
I didn’t say anything about being rich. I’m talking about buying a gas guzzling SUV and writing it off in the first year (not as a business deduction, either). If you don’t know about this, look it up.
F’ing miserable people….are you just bitter cause you missed the bull run the past 4 years or that you missed your opportunitely to flip a house in southern CA??
Posted by: Bruce | Jan 15, 2008 7:19:01 PM
____________
No. we’re celebrating because our “CEO” Chimp-in-Chief and his minions have poisoned the well, and now they have to drink from it.
We’re celebrating because of the twisted justice of it all.
Aurelius – well “hopefully” the stock market declines rival the 30s, we see the housing market collapse by 50%, and hopefully the dollar will weaken enough that we can use it to wipe our ____.
Hey, at least we’ll be teaching some speculators a lesson though…
THIS MARKET IS NOT FOR OLD MEN
Well, in my many years experience buying and shorting stocks…
Just when you think the world’s about to collapse… it dosen’t.
Don’t loose your paranoia shorts… this sell off won’t end any differently from all the other ones we’ve had before. With a rally.
Aurelius – well “hopefully” the stock market declines rival the 30s, we see the housing market collapse by 50%, and hopefully the dollar will weaken enough that we can use it to wipe our ____.
Hey, at least we’ll be teaching some speculators a lesson though…
Posted by: Bruce | Jan 15, 2008 7:41:14 PM
____
Maybe you’ll learn something.
Goodness what an ugly day that was. The number of new highs vs new lows was absolutely terrible today and the volume continues to be higher on the down days than the up days.
Marcus Aurelius:
I don’t need to look it up because whatever your beef is with people buying SUVs, that is such a tiny, tiny fraction of why oil/gas are where they are that whatever cockamamie conspiracy theory you’ve got simply can’t hold water. I’m surprised you came out of your cave long enough after Y2K to start reading the news again and hear all about this Bush/Saudi conspiracy.
” It’s true! When they raid the whorehouse, they even take the piano player.”
Posted by: Ross | Jan 15, 2008 4:22:59 PM
HAH!!! There are some AMAZING one-liners on this blog. I love it. Saw some commentary on Bloomberg today that said that the fact that the market is still above 12,000 is a gift and one would be well-advised to prep a hasty exit cuz a falling brick to sub 8K would not be outlandish when all is said and done.
The people that can’t look around at the preposterous levels of ‘growth’ in their own communities and see that ‘somethin’ rawng’ are the ones that are gonna be angry at the GWB bashers. Who, after being a pawn of his policies for the past 8 years, I would count myself among (the Bush bashers that is). We deserve a 30’s style melt down, it’s needed before new-growth can begin. Bring it on.
Makes no sense that Intel gets hammered this much over record earnings. OMG. The Bears have the market now.
Marcus Aurelius:
I don’t need to look it up because whatever your beef is with people buying SUVs, that is such a tiny, tiny fraction of why oil/gas are where they are that whatever cockamamie conspiracy theory you’ve got simply can’t hold water. I’m surprised you came out of your cave long enough after Y2K to start reading the news again and hear all about this Bush/Saudi conspiracy.
Posted by: Mike G. | Jan 15, 2008 9:08:14 PM
____
You got all of that out of my comments?
How’d you do in the market today?
Yer’ a freekin’ clairvoyant genius!
A genius, I tell ya’!
Go away, knucklehead.
I hope no one who posts here is hoping for a systemic collapse of the U.S. economy – and I do not think anyone really does wish for this; however, what is encouraging to most of us, I believe, is the possibility of the restoration of some degree of sanity to the enterprise.
I admire anyone who can get through Larry Kudlow. He is so six months ago. I actually prefer the first ten minutes of Kramer when his veins on his skull enlarge five times their normal size. Then he pulls on the Cheese Whiz as a product of a company you should invest in. Does he still get phone calls from his supporters who are still long?
Oil/gasoline prices are not crashing the Stock Market and economy. Poor fiscal policies, Fed lunacy, and end-arounds of conservative banking regulations are crashing the economy.
There is nothing more liberal than the deregulation of banking.
Expat:
I don’t doubt your views echo what you hear about how people abroad feel about Americans. Some Americans are ignorant, and some, frankly (and I will include myself in this group) see no reason to give a damn what they think.
Before you dismiss that attitude as either ignorant or the embodiment of exactly what they claim not to like about Americans, tell me why they are to be listened too?
(Sorry, I see no “short post” way to answer the question, but I’ll give two relatively brief examles below.)
They don’t like that we are in Iraq, and yet getting them to actually put meaningful sanctions on Saddam and nip that problem in the bud proved fruitless. Instead we got “permission” to be 90% of the enforcing entity (and pay for the privilege as well!) and 98% of the forces in danger while Saddam shot at our jets almost daily and the rest of the feckless, crooked UN made $ behind the scenes in a oil for food program.
They don’t like the fact that we didn’t sign Kyoto, even though the “settled science” is neither settled nor very scientific (at least by the time it spews its way out of the IPCC political process). Instead, we are supposed to acquiesce to the all-knowing UN “scientists” and take a definite hit on our economy for a process that by their own claims won’t solve the problem!
The rest of the world seems to be great at saying what they don’t like but not so great about actually keeping the world a safer place to live in.
Marcus,
I was thinking the same thing. ‘Cept I’ve talked to a few Canadians who resent how closely tied their economy is to the US’s. Prior to the inevitability of the ‘R’ word….Canada was my first choice. But yeah, on the cusp on a potentially historical recession, I decide to change careers. What could possibly go wrong? :) Thanks for the adivce though, I respect all of your opinions cause if your smart enough to read this board then ur sitting ahead of at least 75% of the others out there.
Stay safe (physically, and economically)
Brett
Gold is going schizophrenic, Asia is getting crushed. Globalization? Heh.
Uh, so, anyone still interested in opining about what will start the next economic expansion after the recession?
The bulls pushed this market to extremes based on extreme leverage facilitated by the FED and the banking regulators who didn’t do their job.
Now the bulls want to bitch about the apocalyptic shorts?!!?!??
The bulls are the ones who have endangered the whole financial system with their leverage and debt bubbles. The bears have been warning about this for years, but they were ignored by the hope drunkard simpletons. Now, the piper will be paid.
“Gold is going schizophrenic”
$25-$35 intra day swings will become the norm. Huge demand vs. Have to kill the messenger.
Interesting note from John Mauldin yesterday. He quoted Warren Buffet as estimating $500 billion in total losses from the housing-securitization fiasco – $250 billion from CDO and another $250 billion from as yet unrealized losses on uncollectable CDS due to under-capitilization of the responsible parties.
More ficticious capital waiting for the eraser of reality to wipe it from the books.
Mike G:
You have no clue whatsoever about South Korean human rights or government. Using accepted definitions, SK is probably a fascist republic with certain outward appearances of democratic process.
You are saying you don’t know what is right for Korea but you KNOW what is right for Iraq?
And, again referring to Jimmy Carter, as far as I know he was an American president, so the US is responsible for Iran which was my point, not whether or not Democrats or Republicans are better.
Back to the economy: Asia seems to be learning what global integration means. HK down 4%. Oil drifting lower but above 90$.
The “it’s not your father’s recession” crowd are on to something. The US has never been so heavily indebted before. Real interest rates were not as low going into recession. The dollar was never as weak. Savings were not negative.
So, back to reality and schadenfreude aside, we are frickin doomed. At least for a year or two, and then we start off again, perhaps chastised and with a better, more world-friendly business model. I doubt it though. It looks more like we will use war to fight the recession. This one will be more convenient since it’s right next door.
Subprime is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is over-indebtedness. Houses are not affordable. Credit card debt is massive. My point is that the US economy is not equipped to handle a trough. If we were, would we be selling our crown jewels to foreign countries?
And, just to be clear, Britain is not in the Euro zone. Trichet’s remit is fight inflation, not prolong real estate bubbles. If their economy is slowing, then it’s part of the normal cycle and there is no need to lower rates. QED.
EDITOR: the past 40 off topic comments have been unpublished . . .
Comments (149)
The fed plunge crew and candidates to the rescue with more spending! Well, the problem is very few people have saved money unlike the 70s and as the dollar plunges, it cost us more to consume as we are consumption driven. Let the market clean itself, reward people for the management or risk and remove the excess.
top 5 stories on marketwatch:
* Jitters from Intel slam U.S. stock futures, dollar
* Wave of negative sentiment sweeps ‘fearful’ Asia markets
* Britney Spears may face the same fate as Princess Diana
* January seems sure to be a down month; so what?
* 14 winning strategies for a bear-market recession
Funny comments…….I have better things to do than watch something that I am already positioned for and is basically pre-ordained at this point. Apparently Fred and a few others have that sort of time to waste…
BTW it was 80 d yesterday and I was’nt about to spend it here.
Stick save today……count on it…
Ciao
MS
Don’t you just love it when the talking heads come up with explanations after the fact?
Barry, I know that you’re a regular guest on CNBC, but don’t you just want to scream at some of the anchors? I actually feel quite passionately about this, because I feel that the bulk of CNBC’s coverage is irresponsible, particularly given the climate we’re in.
CNBC has an obvious bullish tilt (the better for ratings) but clowns like Cramer continue to call bottoms at every turn. While professional investors and traders know enough not to listen to this nonsense, there are many unwitting retail investors who will listen to this advice – and will get killed in the process.
I personally do not believe that the Fed will be able to stem the tide. They may be good for a couple of short-lived rallies, but these will only present great opportunities to get short. Those (like Cramer) who believe that the Fed will ride in on its white horse and save the day are not only sorely mistaken but are hopelessly and frighteningly ignorant.
I believe that the psychology has finally turned, although I still don’t believe the crowd fully realizes the extent of the potential problems out there. There is still too much hope, which to me, means much more downside.
“why does michael moore have a large stock portfolio that includes halliburton among its holdings?”
That’s an easy one: as a shareholder, he can attend their meetings…
*very evil grin*
“Because the cost increase is due to a lack of production.[of oil] Bush policies that crushed the U.S. dollar had nothing to do with it.”
Quid?
Aren’t oil transactions conducted in US dollars?
Thought so!
“They don’t like the fact that we didn’t sign Kyoto, even though the “settled science” is neither settled nor very scientific (at least by the time it spews its way out of the IPCC political process). Instead, we are supposed to acquiesce to the all-knowing UN “scientists” and take a definite hit on our economy for a process that by their own claims won’t solve the problem!”
IPCC? Is that the anecdoctal BS you use to justify your own prejudices?
Take a couple of hours to educate yourself with REAL science, you know, the one that is published in journals with strict peer-review processes.
You might learn something. Beware however! Beliefs may come under severe stress.
“My opinion: those people who only believe in free market so long as they are going higher aren’t capitalists, they are socialists.”
Isn’t that the standard view of Wall Street? See “The Effective Nationalization of the U.S. Mortgage Market in Q3 07” (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/237277/)
Do I get banned for this post?
There’s the phrase “May we live in interesting times.” But, I liked the market more when it was dull and just went up.
talking about socialism already?? C’mon, it is not over yet..