Is there any contrary indicator component to (bearish) blog traffic? I wonder . . .
Note the trend over the past 30 days:
>
Sitemeter traffic to the Bigpicture as of 1/19/08 7:42am
>
I assume the huge increase in traffic this month is (partially) a function of the market turmoil. But geez, that’s a pretty big bump.
~~~
For the record, I do not consider myself a "bear" — Its just that I try to find the truth, search out the facts of the matter. As Rob Corddry once asked, "How does one report the facts in an unbiased way when the facts themselves are biased?"
For the past few years, the macro-economic circumstances have been moving towards the exact issues now causing problems . . .
The traffic increase had to do with the attention drawn to your site by Doug Kass and the bear trend.
Capitulation soon by the look of that chart. At first I thought it was a market volume chart.
People ‘been quoting you various places. e.g., I first found your site via a link on Eschaton last year. Also – those predictions you lucked out on?
The collective lizard brain is saying “We Want Answers and we want them NOW!”. Some of the people reading here probably have actual folding money ready to invest -or- want to know when it will be safe to stop worrying about their 401k.
I jumping back in two days ago and went from 100% cash to 50%. I came in 1 day too early, but some of what I bought went up yesterday. I think this is a bottom, but my 50% remaining cash is ready to average down if need be, or to buy into a timidly rising market, probably next week.
And I plan to make a lot by having bought / buying all the sectors that fell disproportionately further than others. They will rise the most, relatively speaking, and probably faster.
I think we will see a rising market to S&P 1480 this spring, more or less. A summer dip might follow unless great earnings news is prognosticated for the summer. I doubt the S&P will hit 1550 this year. But anyone who buys soon will make money for sure.
People are reading you because they want to know what to do. At this time, this is both what I plan to do and what I have done. BTW, I’m 100% cash because I sold everything on 11-1-07. (I can’t stop patting myself on the back for that one.)
You’ll see an even bigger spike when people lose their jobs and have plenty of spare time.
I am a contrarian also. As I said before…the bears will be proven wrong – they aren’t bearish enough.
If you look at Birinyi’s blogger sentiment poll, the new bears have mainly come from the ranks of the neutral crowd…the core bulls are stubborn.
http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/blogger_sentiment_poll/index.html
I agree the bears are far too bullish. I pulled out my 401K money from the stock market Dec 4,97. So far so good.
The question I have is how much borrowed money still exists in our stock market and global stock markets at this time. Anyone using margin lately has likely potentially doubled their losses.
If too much borrowed money exists in the stock market because it hasn’t gone down in 5 years I think S&P 750 is possible.
During 2007, speculation was driving the market higher each day: China growth, metal prices will never sink because of demand, solar is unstoppable, etc etc. Each day there was a reason to drive the market almost 1% higher every few weeks.
I think the banks are nearly done with subprime writeoffs. There will be some credit card writes and other loans which go bad but not as high as previous. The real surprise will come in lack of earnings power with the oversized debt they have now. These 7-10% coupons are going to be a killer when you can’t afford many risky loans.
But still in my view the bankrupted banks (yes, I believe C and MER are broke) are not at the heart of the problem.
Speculation is.
The pullbacks as all kind of investments go red will be felt around the world just as it did during the great depression. Losses will be realized and as a cost of those losses some gains have to be taken. After all isn’t this what we are seeing now in BIDU, AAPL, RIMM, FSLR, China, Korea, Japan, etc etc?
Earnings power throughout the world has decreased from 2006.
The growth was fueled by speculation and inflation. When you pull away the inflation or reduce it and earnings power reduces that tells you where the profit power came from.
John Borchers,
You may be interested in this article about a sub-prime type issue with stock margin loans.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shares-hidden-downside-AWRKP?OpenDocument
Your predictions for 2007 S&P were spot on. That brought you traffic
Thanks for that link very good article.
If there’s one thing I’d love to know it’s how many times wikipedia got hits on stock market crashes lately. I would bet it’s exponential.
BR,
I am a frequent visitor — regardless of markets being up or down — because I can relate well to the realist/skeptical tone in the commentaries and interesting articles/ links available thru the web site.
Suggestion: How about starting a twice a week market sentiment poll for your web site visitors?
Thanks.
Let’s not forget Kudlow. He’s been the biggest and best advocate for your blog.
He’s the reason I found it and he’s recommended it on his show for umpteen times in the last few years.
Never mind that it IS the best, most informative, most objective financial blog, and the most inviting to reasonable participation anywhere… Still, Kudlow has in my estimate easily contributed 15% or more of your readership. He’s been an absolute funnel.
—
BTW, a philosophical question:
According to the awards cited here by the granting associations referenced:
http://www.ambac.com/
…Is it perchance fair to ponder who might have been on their short lists?
…Or to wonder further if next year’s awards would require solvency for nomination?
Sites like your’s and Panzer’s have been talking about the risk from sub-prime, Alt-A, and the proliferation of credit swaps, CDO’s, and the like for awhile. While everything was going kosher, not a lot of people were concerned. Now, everyone wants to find out what guys like you were talking about Barry. I’m just glad I found your site a long time before that and plan on continuing to be a loyal reader.
Plus, you’ve got great commenters. ;)
It’s actually historically low on a monthly basis (though the month is not over). Check out August…that’s the highest in 12 months. So, your site views are kind of like the VIX.
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=sm2ritholtz&r=33
Well John, here’s how many times Google got hit:
http://google.com/trends?q=stock+market+crash
I believe there is still a chance that we can get out of this mess without too much collateral damage.
$150B fiscal stimulus to buy time + 100bp rate cut should stimulate consumer activity, capital investment, housing sales, auto sales, etc. (Remember that most people operate on a cash flow basis. If the cost of a home/auto loan goes down, they will buy more house/car with their monthly payment)
100bp would lower the cost of mortgage resets and reduce the percentage of defaults.
It would also lower the value of the dollar and once the equity markets have shaken out, foreign investors will rush in to buy our multi-nationals on the cheap, lifting equity prices. (unfortunate but necessary after decades of irresponsible debt accumulation)
Without aggressive action, the US will fall into a serious recession/depression and bring down the global economy with it. Then, all bets are off!!!
btw, not usually a Krugman fan, but today’s op ed (Don’t Cry for Me, America) is 100% on target . Guess he is a pretty good economist when he is not in the “I hate Bush” mode.
It’s a shame you can’t require a little psychology test to view the site. Then you could show a little bar chart of the grief stages. Probably a lot of flippage from bargaining to depression this week. Or maybe a personality inventory so we could watch the little dots migrate over to the fear/loathing quadrant as the lizard brain takes over. Endless infoporn possibilities there.
Barry,
It is obvious to me that the effects of the red pill are wearing off – perhaps the masses watched you fly across the sky with your spot-on projections, but mostly it is your non-biased approach – I believe millions of us are sick of “spin”.
Also, from what I have seen, you have the most sophisticated and best managed comments section of any blog – and keeping it that way is surely a time-consuming and/or costly task.
I am honored that I am allowed to contribute.
We appreciate the work you do and the voice you grant us.
Thanks.
WE LOVE YOU MAN…. Group hug!
I think you need to take seasonality into account as well. While it is still a big jump, the days of – and just prior to – the holidays make the contrast appear larger than it would otherwise be. My guess is that half the jump is attributable to travel schedules.
I’m looking for nekkid pictures of CNBC news babes. Why is everyone else here? :)
bsneath,
I enjoyed your comment above but have some reservations about your conclusions. You and I seem to be somewhat in agreement that this thing could still go either way, but while you tend to the positive bias, I, on the other hand, tend to the negative bias.
I don’t see the stimulus package as all that big of deal – and the markets didn’t seem to care much for it, either. The problem to overcome is pychological, not monetary – it is time preferences that need be addressed. Fear and apprehension close pocket books. It does no good to furnish $150B if that infusion simply goes into a savings account. Obviously, not everyone is impacted the same way, and while some may rush to spend, I believe the percentage to be much lower than anticipated. And my reasoning is from the recent retail holiday spending – down not because there is no money or credit available, but down because perception of time-preference has changed.
A large Fed rate cut still does not address the problem – the credit squeeze is in the capital markets, out of the reach of Fed intervention. Yes, we can blame the Fed for allowing the shadow banking system to gain control – and now that it has, the normal banking system is but a bit player in the production.
Bernanke spoke of this phenomenon in his Jackson Hole Speech.
Again, it is a time-preference problem. During the mania, buyers felt as if they were compelled to buy in order not to miss out on the explosive housing event; now, the urgency of buying is being replaced with “wait and see” preference.
I am still greatly concerned that a deflationary recession is building steam, and once begun, will not be undone without much pain and suffering.
Theres not too much good to read today except this blog so I started a model. For each 5 years I took the S&P500 open for the first week of Jan. For 1950 it’s 17 and 2005 it’s 1211.
I found that with minimal differential average (trying to keep the actual S&P values as close as possible to the projection) to the actual S&P500 numbers the gain per year in the S&P500 would be around 7.98% not including divendends, inflation or anything else.
I found it interesting that with this projection the gains for the last few years are only slightly ahead of the model.
This simple model shows that in Jan 08 S&P500 1426 should have been about where we opened the year and by Jan 09 we should get to 1539.
However, if we are entering anything like the 70’s where in 1975 I’m showing a -66% differential from the model S&P500 would be at 850.
You da best!
red pill?… ya, they’ve all switched to those little “blue” pills.
Here is the model where X = the year and y will give you projected S&P500 value.
Exponential Fit: y=ae^(bx)
Coefficient Data:
a = 1.683771e-064
b = 0.076746329
The model also tells me the only way I can make an 8% gain by Jan 08 is to buy with S&P500 less than 1320. Of course that’s if we follow the model exactly. The last few years S&P500 has been +2-6% ahead of the model.
My mental scenario for the market: This coming week I expect the market to begin discounting the top-secret Fed cut that no one is expecting (this rally is also known as a dead cat bounce or short covering) and then when the Fed actually cuts rates, as promised (surprise?!!!) the scary elevator trip to the sub-basement can resume…FWIW.
thanks to all posters.
I just found your site last week by a mention of your site in the January edition of GQ (US edition).
First impression: excellent!
Greetings from Holland!
I discovered your site from one of your appearances on Kudlow quite some time ago. Unlike Kudlow and many of his other guests, you seem to be looking at facts… being neither an optimist nor a pessimist, but a realist. To me, this makes your site worth reading everyday, as I do. Thanks! Also, I’d like to thank you for the leads to other terrific blogs that, like yours, has contributed to my net worth. Keep up the great work and your popularity will grow. I also think that guest appearances on widely viewed shows will help significantly.
Winston,
You and I are not too far apart in our thinking.
I believe there is A CHANCE that we can get out of this mess, but I also recognize that we are in uncharted waters.
I do believe that the global economy’s strength affords us with an opportunity to muddle through the next few years while the economic imbalances begin to unwind.
That being said, the future of our economy is at great risk. Consumers are carrying unreasonable debt loads, and our banking system went haywire on leverage.
I’m not smart enough to prognosticate the future. But I do see that we are at a critical tipping point.
I see that we are close to entering into a deflationary spiral (if not there already). CPI calculations aside, asset values are tumbling and consumption is a train that is on a downhill track and picking up steam.
Aggressive and immediate monetary and fiscal policy is our best chance to muddle through.
Yes this will deflate our currency and it will lower our standards of living. But we have no other choice. We must now pay the piper for decades of subsidized conspicuous consumption. But the global economy is not big enough (yet) to withstand the “tough love” of doing nothing and letting market forces quickly adjust for past imbalances since the risk of a full blown depression is simply too great.
We will have to work more and spend less to pay back our debts via more exports and fewer imports. We will also have to sell assets to the rest of the world for the same reason.
I feel very sorry for my children. (particularly since I have also been part of the problem and they have experienced nothing but immediate gratification)
Looks like Countrywide is not ‘out of the woods’ yet. Can you guys imagine what would happen to the markets if B of A pulls out of the deal?
WSJ
Doubts Over Deal Hit Countrywide Shares
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and VALERIE BAUERLEIN
January 19, 2008
Countrywide Financial Corp. shares dropped nearly 10% Friday amid growing investor fears that Bank of America Corp. could walk away from its agreement to acquire the struggling home-mortgage lender.
Suge
Citi Bank just sent me a certificate in the mail so I can start using $20,000 today, “get cash the same day”! LOL Looks like someone is desperate for clients, hmmmmm, another one from Capital One ;-)
Suge
LOL, I’m having a tough time coming up with a more bearish scary narrative for the Mainstream right now, Without breaking into Dostoevsky…. Right now…. Seems a little cooked in. Assuming Retail doesn’t come in Tuesday, throwing their stock into the void…. Way to many people are waiting with Cash to buy up a huge panic.
I also wonder… something Too anticipated, sometimes never happens.
The Greatest trade Right now… short the VIX over 38… What is it going to? 50?
Famous Last words, but I’m overweight cash.
And some things will catch a Bid before the market. does.
Also, Bullish… We are starting to look to dealing with the Insurers, BEFORE they implode. as opposed to how reactive we have been to everything else. A little Proactive…is Bullish. It’s definitely time to start dipping toes in. I may throw some money at the next decent rebound after a dip. Start looking at the leadership.
I’m Twice as bearish as anyone about the Money Center banks, But the little ones, that weren’t smart enough to Lose money “the New ways”.
I had some Narcissisum when I realized how I was joking about Nationalizing/Federalizing/liquidating the Mono-lines, and some of the big banks…. and then bailing them out.
and now the Kass/Kramer plan is similar to my joke.
Shorts are coming off, to come up with cash to buy a big plunge… Watched pots sometimes don’t boil…
too many Generals are fighting the previous war(to paraphrase Barry).
The Exploitation of the volatility, may be just the cure for the volatility.
All we have are some weakening Sales, and some Very stupid Banks, and a lightening credit crunch. and some problems with some Financial instruments, We can be proactive and get it worked out… some of the problems are problems being Created by Sarbox, compounding themselves.
Like I say… We are Resilient People!, when we have to unify and fight a some nebulous Dragon… we can do it! Nothing like a Plunging Dow to wake everyone Up.
Now if only we could get America back to work!
My Thesis has always been that we have been in a Recession since 2000, We have never Really Recovered. Some WallStreet Companies did, But America never did.
Get that Cash out, Get some public Works Programs going, Rebuild the Middle Class. Re-establish Farming, and mining… How about Robot Mining projects… Where is that investment.
There is light… Bullish to SPX 1400… Then it’s all Denial.
“It’s not that the smart people are Bears, it’s that the smart people are Bearish”
Always be a Bear when everyone is Bullish, and always be a Bull when everyone is Bearish”…. Works for me.
I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion… If everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way… -Ricky Roma.
Many a slip between cup and a lip, From here to Great Depression- Redux… There are alot of steps. between here and there.
I always use my pappy for contrary opinion, he called me wanting to throw out all his stock on Friday…. Sell Sell Sell!!!!!!
and anytime he calls wanting to buy stock, or he refuses to sell something in his portfolio, I know it’s Done….
I keep telling him to buy financials…
But Citi is going to 15…
Eric Davis, do you tipically post when you’re drunk? Bear when everyone is bullish, bull when everyone is bearish, LOL. Makes sense assuming your TIMING is right, if not, you’ll still lose. In fantasy land, lots of us are billionaires just like you ;-)
MAS,
Nekkid you don’t need. All you need is imagination.
How ’bout the black with the zipper top Friday mid-day?
—
Oh, no!… there I go again. I have to remember to take my pills for testosterone poisoning. But…. oh, that black outfit with the z-i-p-p-e-r top!
—
BTW, I donated blood last month for a blood plasma drive. The Red Cross called me back later and said “no thanks” to any more… it’d caused priapism deaths in 3 counties.
*conspiracy theory*
let’s say the stimulus money doesn’t go into consumption as is the stated/purported goal and instead goes into savings accounts. doesn’t that amount to a stealth bailout of bank balance sheets?
*/conspiracy theory*
bsneath,
I agree we are not too far apart in the assessment of risk, but may be further apart in solutions.
While globalization has occured, it is still in its infancy – likely 10-20 years away from being able to walk without holding on to the hand of Uncle Sam. Any serious and prolonged recession in the U.S. will no doubt have global consequences, a recoupling rather than decoupling.
Long and exhaustive inquiry has led me to the following conclusion: all economic activity is psycholigically driven, i.e., it is based on perception.
One of our most admired and regular posters, Eclectic, has written on this subject, and he has coined the term “perceived liquidity” to explain this phenomenon. Mises also impled a similar perception-based action in his term of “time-preferences”.
I bring this up as I do not see a montarist intervention as a solution to a problem based on perception.
Imagine a well-heeled partygiver at a wedding banquet – if someone walked up to him and handed him $1000 dollars that money no doubt would go for more Dom Perignon and cavier; however, if instead the receiver was on the streets, down and out, and had not eaten in two days, that monetary intervention would most likely go into his shoe and be spent sparingly, carefully, making it last as long as possible on necessities – like food.
We have heard a lot of talk about risk aversion, but at its basis risk aversion is nothing more than perception change – the psycholigical-based alteration of desire for gain into fear of loss – that if I want to play this game in the future I’d better be more cautious today.
I agree that no permanent solution can be pain free; and I also feel for our children, to whom we have left a far worse environment than the one we inherited.
It would be helpful to list them in relation to market cap.
Back in the day when I wrote an online newsletter I always noticed that traffic and subscriptions would increase when the market was going down. My theory is that people need a “hand to hold” in such situations.
but it does work in their favor in terms of regulatory requirements, no?
Eclectic,
I wouldn’t worry about the Red Cross avoiding your blood – the time to worry is when the vampires want no part of you.
And, after all, you are still receiving those low, introductory-rate credit card offers, aren’t you?
BR: I think your prediction accolades have driven some fresh traffic. If you had touted Dow 6K, I think this place would be fairly quiet right now. But the core readers will always be here for the excellent work you do.
As for the gentleman who has been out of the market since 1997, wow. What type of inflation adjusted returns have you received on that? I cannot imagine how small my fortune would be if I had sold everything in 97 (BTW: I do not believe in buy & hold) …
cinefoz, I enjoy some of your ideas, but throwing 50% of your port back into a cascading market will quickly make everyone (including yourself) forget that you raised cash on Nov. 1. If this is your first bear, they are a lot more challenging than bulls, and they have destroyed many great traders who thought they could tame the bear. We all have theories and some charts supporting our theories, but the only street cred we have is our track record …
Even though you left the Allman Brothers off of your best American band list, which is unconsionable, I grudgingly admit that the reason for the spike is that you write with knowledge and a flair, two assets sorely lacking in most economics and biz blogging that sooner or later would elevate you above the pack.
~~~
BR: I like the Allman Bros . . . but I cannot say I LOVE the Allmans . . . hence, they are on the “almost made it” list
BR
Is this unique new traffice or is
it repeat customers?
People might be looking for
investment tips, since you’ve
been calling it pretty close.
Winston,
Barry does an excellent job at pointing out the psychological factors that affect equity prices and thereby create bull and bear markets.
At the present, we are also faced with real liquidity factors. I see currently that our financial institutions, hedge funds, private equity players and consumers are under going a massive de-leveraging process, Banks do not have sufficient capital to lend new money. Consumers have lost access to additional home equity borrowing. Banks are beginning to restrict access to credit card debt. Money supply is decelerating. Money supply velocity is likely decelerating.
Fiscal stimulus is needed, whether it is spent, used to pay down credit card debt, used to shore up consumer balance sheets (saved) or used on a mortgage payment or two. Under any of these uses, it helps to shore up the domestic economy and our banking system.
Corporations (except financials) generally have solid balance sheets. Investment tax incentives should yield a significant return in areas tied to global growth, such as exporters, energy, alternative energy, technology, agriculture, etc. where capacity expansion and productivity improvements are warranted.
Monetary stimulus is needed to lower the cost of funds to banks and consumers. Banks will be encouraged to make new loans as they will be more profitable, investment banks will profit from carry trades, driving down longer term maturities, home owners will refinance (albeit under more conservative rules) and lower their monthly cost of homeownership. Adjustable Rate Mortgages will return (albeit under more conservative rules) to stimulate housing demand.
Psychology (as well as de-leveraging) will dictate stock prices in the short term. The health of our economy and the global economy will dictate stock prices in the longer term.
There is probably quite a bit of seasonality to those stats. Not much of anything (besides eating) happens the last 2 weeks of December and the first week of January.
How about comparing January from previous years?
cinefoz..
so you think market has bottomed..
i disagree with you, and i guess time will tell who will be right.
i think we will get a rally due the FED rate cut, which may go all the way to 100 points (atleast 50 points, most probably 75 pts).
BTW since you are bullish, just imagine what if FED cuts only 50 pts?
as far as the 150 billion spending money, i dont trust politicians to implement a efficient thing before election….its all about votes.
BTW Oil may also start dropping and may go all the way to $70-75 (if bush still has some connection with saudis, and they are able to brow beat the rest of OPEC)
so all this things will lead to some rally, which will be full of hiccups, and may last 2 weeks to 4 weeks.
then what? falling retails sales, falling housing, foreclosures, layoffs by financials, more write downs, more institutions on the verge of bankruptcy (or their stock racing to zero), falling business from financial, falling business expenditure because no one wants to take risk…
of course falling risk aversion by smart investors, who will say thanks and pull most of their money out…
so that means, no matter what anyone does….after a short rally we will head to the point where shares of company really have some yield atleast twice a savings account(to compensate for the risk we are taking).
unless of course BEN some how blows big bubbles by inflating things….any comments on this one??
i will wait for your comments cinefoz, or anyone else who thinks that we are at the bottom??
Techy,
My prediction is that the Federal Reserve will let the washout continue for a while to reinforce the notion of moral hazard and then will ride to the rescue with an upside surprise, such as 100bp fed funds cut and 125bp discount rate cut.
Once the markets have settled, along with another drop in the dollar, foreign investors and sovereign funds will cherry pick our blue chip equities. This is where the next bubble will occur.
Also, we might have a surprise upswing in retail sales because of the gift card affect. This could explain why initial claims did not adjust seasonally as much as expected. A lot of those gift cards were for restaurants as well as retail.
An overemphasis on nominal retail sales can lead to a misperception of forward risk. While we all clamor about the importance of the 72% of GDP to which consumerism is responsible, we tend to understate the fact that since 1945 nominal consumer spending has never declined, even in recession.
Expansion and contraction occur at the margins. Recession is simply the result of misallocation; even in recession, there can be pockets and areas of expansion.
It is no so much t-h-a-t consumers continue to spend, but on what items they c-h-o-o-s-e to spend that will ultimately decide the recession/no recession question.
And although I am starting to feel much like the dung beetle myself, once again I have to caution that it is percption of liquidity that propels choice of spending.
Can I risk buying that plasma t.v. now or should I wait and be sure to eat?
Buffet b stock is down 51 percent if after hours trading …Thats a big ass margin call http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=frameset&kind=&symbol=brk/b&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=brk/b&FormType=&mkttype=AFTER&pathname=&page=afterhours
Alright You all convinced me, I went out to Wallmart… Got 2 pistols, turned all my cash into kugerands, 50 pounds of Wheat…. Put Big fat Deadbolts on the doors.
I’ll be hiding and quivering till it’s all over…..
*shake shake shake*
……rose…bud.
No Eric, we don’t want to convince you, just keep buying and averaging down, it will go back up! Make sure you pick up some Countrywide shares! LOL
Same thing on my site.
People are thirsty for information.
TV gives them little, until after hours.
Oh… I have not used the B word… and mock, anyone who day after day comes in saying it….
Yes Winston
…on the credit card come-ons.
They are blood suckers
…with perpetual hard-ons.
—
BTW, Barringo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vuadh1o0yC8
Traffic Spike, part II: Google Trend
One of the comments in the prior post pointed to this Google chart: Trend history: stock market crash I’m not sure how reliable an indicator this is, since we are nowhere near the February China spike, but the market loss is greater. Do people get inu…
Eric,
Your style is condescending, but your substance is needful and insecure. You need to go elsewhere to keep your compatriots convinced… or to keep yourself convinced.
—
BTW, where does genius come from? Is it born or bred?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfqu4YEufYc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2BOApUvFpw&feature=related
*chuckle*
Hizzah
I’ve always known I’m a schmuck by nature.
I do mean to make the point,(in insubstantial, desperate, insecure(how if I add Petty) Way.) That if you never take a chance… life could be passing you by.
but maybe not.
I certainly apologise.
Dip a toe in eau
How high can a dead cat bounce?
Walk on the wild side
Dip a toe in eau
How high can a dead cat bounce?
Walk on the wild side
My question is is there an underlying macroeconomic “big picture” that would be inured to such things as blog traffic or other “counter-trend” phenomena?
I think there is. Manufacturing exported. Tax base and social contract undermined. Science neglected or banned in some cases. Corruption rampant. Terrible governance.
Asset prices will be buoyed by foreign intervention, deliberate inflation, but the currency the assets are priced in will not. Nominal gains maybe, real losses definitely.
All in fun Eric… all in fun. No need to apologize.
State your opinions and defend them and mock away freely if it helps you.
I enjoy the random excellent mock, but I can tell you from experience it’s more enjoyable (not to mention – logical) when the mockees are suffering.
—
Uncle Dougie Kass,
Cuidado!… my friend. You’re gonna have to face Natalie soon.
“Uncle Dougie, why’d you close your shorts and then go long the financials?”
Natalie can be cold.
DH, hell of a handle. I am now “Street Creds”
You may want to look at the details behind the bump. I had something similar happen on my blog (much smaller than yours) and, upon diving into the detail, found that the bulk of the spike represented hits to a critique I had written of a WSJ piece by David Gelernter. Now why should there have been such an interest in him at the time the spike occurred?
I’ve no good answer to that.
Techy,
This is the bottom, or, worst case, very close to the bottom.
Optimists think ‘this time is different’ when stocks head for the moon and appear to defy gravity. Pessimists, think that there is no limit to down when the market falls significantly. Both views are wrong, but both are required to make a market. History has proven both extremes incorrect.
Wall street is not ‘the economy’, although the screaming finance babies may want us all to think otherwise. Fortunately, their whining is making the turn around with regards to stocks look as if they are following a script.
Also, the US is only a part of a world economy. You appear to forget this. The world is booming. Their markets react in sympathy to US markets. When they are done falling, all markets will rise again. And very soon. This is why I have been so impatient for foreign markets to match US markets.
Also, I try to educate myself from books and other facts. Many others are too lazy for that and think uninformed opinion is the equivalent.
One more thing … when you are buying at the top, that is when will be selling. Thanks for your support.
Eclectic, no more clips of ambulances driving by?? I was riiiiveted to my computer the last time… ;-)
Eric Davis
bravo to your witty and insightful rejoinders ….. appreciate that you don’t get easily offended or condescending when someone challenges your thoughts ( like an MS-type , who should be banned )
I personally think cinefoz is underestimating what is coming. What is the U.S. recession breaks the back of China? Don’t forget China is a corrupt, inefficient, zero margin (due to bad loan practices) economy that is headed by a goverment that thinks it knows better than history. Assume China tanks, do you still think the world pulls us out of this? History says to me that no economy so badly constructed as China will be robust through a crash.
Wunsacon,
Go away kid… don’t bother me. I’m workin’ on something big.
I appreciate the candid input from cinefoz but I, too, believe he may be suffering a misallocation of assumptions.
Consider this from Reuters:
“BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s central bank on Sunday poured cold water on the idea that the country’s economy can decouple from the United States.
China’s exports will be badly hit if U.S. consumption weakens, Zhang Tao, deputy head of the international department of the People’s Bank of China, told a financial forum.”
Also, Nouriel Roubini has made the same claims, that in the event of a U.S. recession there will be a recoupling of the world’s economies rather than decoupling, as most optimists predict.
I am of the opinion that one of the more dangerous and expensive optimistic assumptions is the strength of the global economy – it is still highly dependent upon the U.S. for growth.
I’ll re-ask the question. I also check out Tim Wood for cyclic analysis. I found a statement by his quest Tony very intriquing. He stated that normally on options expiry there has been, for as far back as 20 or more years, a level at which the brokerages covering the options broke even (his no-pain zone) for this cycle that was S&P @ 1425. At the time of the interview Wednesday S&P sat @ 1375. He stated at 50 handles that this implied massive losses for the house and the last occurance of this magnitude was the ’87 crash. At Fridays close the S&P was > 100 handles double this acceptable pain zone!!!
http://www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm
Is this a valid observation surely with all the chartists and cycle analysts here someone has an opinion regarding this phenominon.
Wunsacon, here’s one your friends may enjoy:
A man and his wife are enjoying themselves in a local bar… the man a bit occupied with mutual friends, and the wife falls temporarily under the lecherous eyes and commentary of two men of an unrelated party. She overhears them.
First man to second: “Look at the rack on that babe!…”
Second man: “Yeah, boy I’d really love to e-a-t her out full of ice cream.”
The woman is offended and rushes to her husband:
“Honey, did you hear that man?… what he said to me!”
Husband: “No… uh… wha…?”
Woman: “THAT lecherous man said he’d like to eat me out full of ice cream!… He needs a lesson, Honey… what are you going to do about it?”
Husband: “Nothing.”
Woman (indignant): “What do you mean, NOTHING?… Why aren’t you going to thrash him? Don’t you care what he SAID to me?”
Husband: “Yes, Dear… but… but…”
Woman: “But WHAT?”
Husband: “I’m not messin’ with anybody that can eat that much ice cream.”
Here’s my last one for the day:
A fellow in a large overcoat sits at a bar and appears down and out… despondent over something.
A man sits down next to him and tries for some conversation: “Say, buddy, I’ve noticed you’re really down about something. Why don’t you tell me about it… I’ll buy the next round.”
Fellow: “I had the greatest opportunity in the world and… I… I blew it!”
Man: “What do you mean… what opportunity?”
Fellow: “I found a magic lamp and I rubbed it and a genie came out.”
Man: “No kiddin’… really?… what did the genie do?”
Fellow: “He said he’d grant me one wish… any wish I wanted… ANYTHING at all!”
Man: “Well, that’s great… what did you wish for?”
Fellow (reaches into his overcoat and pulls out a tiny man and a miniature grand piano and sets them on the bar – the tiny man immediately plays Rachmaninoff, Gershwin and Brahms, flawlessly and in concert form)
Man (impressed): “That’s spectacular!… what a wonderful wish to have granted!”
Fellow (still despondent): “But you don’t understand.”
Man: “What do you mean?… That’s the most impressive thing I’ve ever seen.”
Fellow: “Yeah, but the genie misunderstood what I asked for. He thought I said… a 10-inch pianist.”