One of the comments in the prior post pointed to this Google chart:
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Trend history: stock market crash
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I’m not sure how reliable an indicator this is, since we are nowhere near the February China spike, but the market loss is greater. Do people get inured, or is this somehow not as bad?
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Hey, can anyone get me the Google Trend data for the 1929 and 1987 crashes . . . ?
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UPDATE January 19, 2008 7:03pm
I’m heading out for the evening, but here’s a few more:
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Trend History: Recession
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Trend History: Subprime
Have fun with this!
No prob bro. Send $39.95 plus $12 S&h to PO box 549 Attu, Alaska.
Do I get a biscuit?
Google knows all ;-)
Seems like 1929 was a similar set of circumstances to what we have today … credit boom, credit bust, guvment stepping in to “help”.
We can run, but we’ll only die tired. Sigh.
I still say Teck bounces this week and then we reassess. I bet once the Fed cuts the elevator starts down again on the “news”.
In 1987 Al Gore had just finished the designs for the invention of the online world, so we do not have surfing data for that time period.
I still say most average folks with a 401k types (those who rely on an advisor for direction) don’t even have the market on their radar yet. And those who do call their broker get the same old ‘ride it out’ lullaby the nice grandfatherly fellow from S&P talks about in yesterday’s Marketwatch video interview with Marshal Loeb.
Barry,
Try the word “recession”
I think but am far from sure that in a trending bear market, levels of overbought/oversold change. I have no data just an observation.
There will be many many oversold rallies. On the road to perdition, there will be rest stops along the way.
I admire those who post their positions so we know if they are talking their book. As for me, I own sugar via IPSU and recently Palladium metal and domestic miners. I would love to by QLD about 8 to 10% lower.
Interesting observation about the recent NLY sponsership of the IPO Chimera. They raised a Half Bil to invest in destressed RE. Looks like a backdoor vulture fund.
The Google stuff from WWII was off the hook! Those guys were ahead of their time even way back then! Go Larry & Serge!
seems like everyone is bearish. well i own gold silver, alternative energy, energy, energy conservation .
why should i get hurt no matter what the economy looks like?
mbi and ambac is not as bad the rightdowns may not even be realized as actual losses. it is all mark to the market. the markets will adjust back over the next 18 months and what then? buy companies that are growing. solar is robust and some solar companies have reasonable forward p/es
good luck all
IMHO – the most telling Google trend is “boat”. “wal-mart” is interesting too (but curiously “wal mart” produces different results). “circuit city” and “best buy” are understandable.
“apple” reports on Tues.
What about the trend for Britney or Paris – you know the one – the inverted IQ chart.
Mix that google data with the purchase data from MasterCard and you got yourself the makings of a “real time zietgiest brainwashing propaganda machine” – able to transform and manipulate consumer trends into profits in record time.
Here’s a good one…Jim Cramer…nice spike aroud “THEY KNOW NOTHING!!!!!”…otherwise he’s lagging
http://www.google.com/trends?q=jim+cramer&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
I posted something like that here a while back, but it seems the post got purged. Could be my use of tinyurl’s.
It looks like the boat manufacturing industry is slowly tanking.
If you like “boat”, check out “ski” or “ski, snow”. If you want to see a growth industry, or cause to take it easy during the holidays, check out “funeral home”.
others of interest:
“depression”
“depression, suicide”
“valentine”
“boom” – on international scale
“real estate” – national and international
“bankruptcy”
and last but not least,
“taxes”
try “blackstone”…there’s a bubble that fully popped.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=blackstone&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Along with the Denninger site I also check out Tim Wood for cyclic analysis. I found a statement by his quest Tony very intriquing. He stated that normally on options expiry there has been, for as far back as 20 or more years, a level at which the brokerages covering the options broke even (his no-pain zone) for this cycle that was S&P @ 1425. At the time of the interview Wednesday S&P sat @ 1375. He stated at 50 handles that this implied massive losses for the house and the last occurance of this magnitude was the ’87 crash. At Fridays close the S&P was > 100 handles double this acceptable pain zone!!!
http://www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm
any opinions.
I’m going long, the odds are more on the upside than the downside. There is no way the Nasdaq is dropping another 100 points, IBM results were not great but definitely better than the financials (WAMU, etc.), same with GE. Think about it folks, money on the sidelines have to go somewhere, where do you think is going? Tech, MSFT will report strong results, MSN.com has been taking market share away from GOOG and YHOO. Too much fear, time to jump in.
Suge
just trying to get my ZX81 running then I will have that 1987 data, 1929 will take me a bit more time and tinkering in the shed!
my commodore 64 is vroken :(
This just popped into my head…the same thing that has kept consumers spending is the same thing that has kept stocks rising the past 4 years…low unemployment. If we do get massive layoffs, consumer spending will get hit, but what happens to stocks? First thing, 100% assured, automatic contribution to the 401k stops. A good chunk of that went right into equities. Next, it is likely that the ex-employees will cash in any stock options they have and liquidate. Many will then rollover the 401k into an IRA and be free to finally sell their company’s stock. As they cut their spending, company earnings will fall, causing more layoffs and the whole process is a negative feedback loop.
google trend data on its own doesnt tell us anything, especially when it comes to hobbies and pastimes. when internet users find quality sites related to their hobbies they stop investing the time and energy to discover new ones. instead, they just read and reread the sites they’ve already found.
I can confirm a spike in traffic last two weeks on one of my websites that compares stock market crashes 1929, 1990 and 2000-2008.
Most frequent search terms in Januari:
stock market crash 2008
stock market crash
2008 market crash
market crash 2008
stock market crashes
1990 stock market
stock market 2000-2008
1929 stock market crash chart
how did the stock market crash in 1929 happen
will us stock market crash on jan. 2008
stock market correction 1990
us stock market crash 2008
2008 us stock market
2000 stock market crash
stock,market,crash
charts 1929 stock market crash
stock market crash chart 1929
stock market crash 1990
will the stock market crash in 2008
stock market 2000
what happens when the stock market crashes
is the us stock market going to crash in 2008
stock market 1990 – 2008
will the stock market crash in 2008?
chart predicting stock market crashes chart
stock market 2008 vs 2000
stock market since 1990
stock market 2008 crash
Check out: “she be cold outside…go Packers!”
do dad, go to
http://www.sitkapacific.com/
and you’ll get to a real live website. I’m not an investor, have nothing to do with Mish other than read his blog, but at first glance it certainly looks like a real business to me.
Vanveen says:
“google trend data on its own doesnt tell us anything, especially when it comes to hobbies and pastimes. when internet users find quality sites related to their hobbies they stop investing the time and energy to discover new ones. instead, they just read and reread the sites they’ve already found.”
This is a good point. I thought of another…all searches should be normalized for growth of google users. Since the number of google users has soared, any searches that look flat are actually declining in real terms…its like adjusting GDP for inflation.
Oh this is scary. Has anyone tried
ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
None until December and then WHAMMO
http://www.google.com/trends?q=economic+depression&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
John,
Good one…and the news reference volume is flat. This is why those “contrarians” who are looking at insider buying are going to get pummelled. A depression will start bottom up…those lower in econmic status will see it way ahead of corporate insiders, Wall Street execs and the media who are in their ivory towers and are bullishly biased.
“This is a good point. I thought of another…all searches should be normalized for growth of google users. Since the number of google users has soared, any searches that look flat are actually declining in real terms…its like adjusting GDP for inflation.”
Disregard my above statement…Google already adjusts for this if you read the fine print. They should label the axis differently
My humble model thinks the market may put in a bounceback rally over the next few weeks then start down again. Near term, market slightly oversold.
Crystal windshield covered in bug juice, visibility poor. Don’t do it sonny, play it safe. Prezident George is on the job, he’ll rescue you from Ossamma O’Bama.
Market is not oversold it’s exactly neutral.
In the S&P500 the market closed Fri at the critical point 1320. If you have excel you can download the historical data from Yahoo from 1950 to current by month. Load this into an XY chart on excel and then add an exponential trendline.
It has only broken below the trendline during times of recession, stagflation and bubble correction. Interestingly enough we have not been below the trendline in many many years (2002) and when we were it was only a short time.
Here is the chart on Photobucket if you aren’t a mathametician. The charts are in log or linear scale.
http://s265.photobucket.com/albums/ii204/jmborchers/?action=view¤t=SP500Normal.jpg
Sorry 2nd try. Has a bad character link.
http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii204/jmborchers/SP500Normal.jpg
Sorry 2nd try. Had an odd character in the link. This is the full size non log.
http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii204/jmborchers/SP500Normal.jpg
Interesting chart, John Borchers. Thanks.
Very good chart, John Borchers. I remember well the period 1968-1982. Seems like similar circumstances to today.
I was suprised at the strength in the averages from 02 to 07. I thought everyone knew about the stagflation that was coming but I confess to always being 2 years or so early.
We are beginning to see protectionism especially when it comes to foodstuffs. There have been riots in Pakistan, Indonesia and I suspect in China as well.
S. America will see unrest and I suspect hoarding will start. This when food stocks are at 35 year lows.
Oh well, just another cycle. Gotta go feed my black beef critters. Ta ta
Interestingly enough a simple exponential model perhaps could have predicted the great Nasdaq crash. Since technology normally grows exponentially any irrational deviance from this model suggests irrational thinking.
http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii204/jmborchers/NasdaqAtPeak.jpg
http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii204/jmborchers/Nasdaq.jpg
bull market versus bear market
Both references have taken off recently possibly indicating people are getting more interested in all things market
David B:
How do you insert a hyperlink into the comments eg. “bull market versus bear market?”
Here’s a neat trick. It makes it easy to insert links into your blog entry!!
Instructions here!!
I see you found it Steve. It is a neat little gimmick that makes the blog much more user friendly