This morning, I’ll be guest hosting Morning Call on CNBC, from 11:00am to 12 noon.
On today’s agenda:
– Buffett’s bid to reinsure the monolines
– Slowing Economy, Credit Crunch, Financial woes
– Recession: How deep and long? When to increase US Equity exposure?
– Earnings progress
– Is this morning’s pop sustainable?
As always, should be fun!
~~~
Here are the videos:
Buffett & the Monolines (ABK, MBIA, FGIC)
Mortgage Plan part I
Mortgage Plan part II
>>Is this morning’s pop sustainable?>>
This happens time and again with the futures no matter what the news is. Again stating this already: a nuclear bomb could go off and our futures would be up.
It’s getting out of hand with the futures pump every morning………total bullshit that it is allowed to occur in the context of whatever the news is.
Are you out buying today???? doubt it.
options pump
Ciao
MS
Is it really good news that Buffett offerred to buy the profitable business of the bond insurers? I’d like to buy it too. Who do I contact?
well, yes because that was a major concern that muni market would be disrupted if downgrades come to insurers. So, this is kind of a safety net but funny thing is it probably will be rejected by ALL the insurers making it window dressing for markets.
Funny how rumours/bailouts are the only jolts to markets these days.
It doesnt solve that MORE write downs will come, housing is still falling, defaults are still rising, other debt classes are still seeing rising delinquencies, and many are holding toxic structured credit products. Buffet wants nothing to do with CDO’s! So, while muni market may be saved, there will be a new wave of write downs.
No way is this over by any means.
Johnny Vee:
My bet is that things are so bad that traders are looking for any excuse to pump and dump.
warren buffett is doing the jp morgan thing from 1907! NYTimes headlines were gloom and doom today so of course the market is up. I wouldnt be surprised if the rally lasts all day.
Great segment on CNBC Barry! Thank you for correcting the other clueless guest who is obviously on the wrong side of a bet. To try and paint Buffett as the bad guy in this is pure bullshit! Well done once again!!
Morning’s pop is DaBoyz & the PPT men at work.
They should save their energy until next week, which is when it appears it will be most needed.
MS,
I’m going to make a boatload of money today since I bought when the market was in a craphole.
Perhaps you could investigate lottery science and make your investments there. This is a fruitful arena that I’m sure you could probably wrap your head around. Good Luck!
Really funny listening to Paulson…..”Don’t be a deadbeat. Honor your obligations. Get a modification agreement. Pay the Shylocks whatever you can afford. We are here to help. We are the Government.” They are trying to make us prisoners in our own homes….!!!
The same people who were STUPID and did not do their jobs are now trying to duck and cover. It is surely a disgrace.
Cinefoz,
How much is a boatload. We talking a dingy or QE2?
Ross,
Enough to make me smile, but not enough for an obnoxious butt shaking happy dance.
We are strong and invincible! Remember, we are still in the BULL camp.
sure……
you always do great….after the move has already been made..
I hope that makes you feel better.
Ciao
MS
I heard a rumor that Legg Mason is looking to replace Bill Miller as the manager of its Value Trust fund. The leading candidate to replace him is cinefoz, based solely on his investment performance stated on Barry Ritholtz’s TBG message boards. Congrats, cinefoz!
If W Buffett was such a “mover and shaker”, why doesn’t he guarantee all the GM workers their jobs????
Did anyone read the GM headline today????
OUCH…..
OP EX week and more of the same,
Morning low is bought all afternoon and then BAM, big blast up the next morning.
Same Bat Time….Same Bat Channel.
Buffett BAIL OUT? As he said, he wants to make money, he only wants the good part of the business, not the rest, is that what BAIL OUT means to the crowds?
muni market also seized up yesterday with some ST new issues priced to yield 12%. CDO unwinds have euro CDS at record wides. bank loan market is black swaning again. feedback effects all over the place.
I have a question regarding banks and mortgages. When someone sells his home for less than what he owes on his mortgage, does his bank give up their lien on the home or do they still keep a lien on it for the difference the old owner still owes them? If so, I would think this might prevent the sale closing in the first place.
Does anyone know how this works? I imagine this situation will come up a lot in the coming year…
tedzbear
You are talking about a “short sale”. In this case, the bank agrees to allow you to sell the house for less than the note and you owe nothing after the sale.
The IRS might force you to take the difference as income though and short sales are difficult since you have the bank involved in all the bids.
Does anyone dislike Dennis Kneale as much as I do? What a PollyAnna…..
Nice to see Barry for a change….it’s about the only time I don’t have CNBC on mute. Unfortunately I still have to see Dennis Kneale’s ugly mug numerous times a day.
Not trying to offend anyone here, I love Dennis. He always remind us the economy is still very strong and he got tons of data to prove it. By the way, we need to see QQQQ goes higher, bid it up, need some higher high I’m afraid!
He shoots, he scores! Way to go Adam.
Hi Barry, I work in a public entity. With the decrease in interest rates we can save money refinancing some bonds. That is the good news. The bad news is bond insurance jumed from 20 to 38 basis points. The big financial companies have to make up their loses and the public will pay again. Hopefully Buffent’s entry into the market will reduce the 90% increase in insurance!
Why is this poster named Michael Schumacher so insecure? Is he such a poor investor that he has to take out his anger on the others who use this board?
Barry…you looked totally flashy today. More like Hollywood than Wall Street…or at least corporate lawyer-esque. Whattaya going to buy with all the ad revenue, some bling?
cinefoz…for a guy who has been railing BR for his “I told you so” posts about how crappy housing and the economy realy are, it is mighty audacious of you to come on here on a measly 1.5% up day and brag about your “boatloads” of profits.
Let me guess, you’ll sell everything at the top today, right? Cause the market is going back down when the insurers all reject Buffett’s attempt to steal away the muni’s and when the market realizes that it isn’t the munis that are the problem, but the CDO’s which, oddly, Buffett wont touch…cause he’s in business to make money, not hemorrage it.
Cheese Fuzz is back!! Dennis Kneale=Cheese Fuzz.
Sailor, Shorts are forgiven now by IRS due o 2007 Freedom act “if” you can prove it was a primary residence.
Talked about some F’ed speculators. They will be trying to give their identities to illegals!
Isn’t Buffet basically putting a bid under the bond insurers? Let’s say that Dinallo’s (sp?) plan doesn’t work. The monolines can’t get bailed-out and ratings are cut. If that happens wouldn’t they be in a position that they are forced to raise capital for reserving? Holding onto their muni business might not be that much of an option, no? What else would the insurers say to his offer?
The market rallies on Buffet’s offer, yet look at the bond insurers, down over 10% each…. You can’t make this up… simply insane markets…and the reason offered for the rallied confirm, there’s no intelligent life on wall street or the MSM.
The bond insurers are getting killed b/c as soon as the munis are off the table, the insurers are getting their ratings cut to what they should be.
Do you think Buffet is unaware that his statements move the markets?
Buffett is acutely aware that his statements move markets, otherwise he wouldn’t go to the lengths that he does to conspicuously build/sell his positions.
It is fascinating to see him go so public about his interest in this business. I believe he smells blood and value the likes of which he hasn’t in my recent memory especially since BRK has the capital to put to work. I don’t see any soveriegn funds chasing this.
Buffett is our very own sovereign fund, so he can pull this off while the politicians wave the flag and BRK makes a bundle. The only competition for this deal I can see would be the Gates Foundation. The other inland empire. Is this a great country or what?
Hey Cinebunz!?! Did you still make a boatload? Or did the afternoon fade take a bite out of your hide? Though I’m sure you got out at today’s peak and then shorted all the way down (and then, clearly, got out at the bottom).
Lol.
Anonymous, unverifiable bragging over the internet is worthless garbage. Serious readers of TBP know this and are more than happy to have their comments judged on the merits. Something you clearly want no part of.
V, Obvious …
No, the markets went down from then. I only made a lot. Not a boatload. Still, I’m smiling. I’m positive for the year. How about you?
What will the muni mzrket be worth once all the RE problems bleed through to the municipal tax base?? I live in a fairly rich zip and the tax delinquancy rate has gone from one page to three.
I was blown away by Barry’s analysis that the Muni bonds are the insurers hostage. If they sell the Muni portion of the business, there is no reason to save them–there just another hedge fund at that point. I got a visual of an insane bank robber hold up in a building, with hostages, trying to get his ass out of a bad situation with SWAT covering the door. Once the hostages are let go–He’s toast. Great analogy
warren out buffetts market
So Buffett is trying to get the hostages released and Cramer wants the Fed to give them 30 billion and a helicopter (Ben’s) to the airport???
Shoot to kill, comrades!
Sorry Barry. Can’t watch WMP embedded vids anymore. They don’t work on my machine. MSFT sez my Mac has a CODEC this windows s_box ain’t got any more and they won’t/can’t cough it up. Who they crappin’?
Big Picture, I caught a few minutes of your appearance this morning. You seem to moderate your views slightly for the mass media but that is fine.
Keep cutting through the fog, fogcutter. The country needs intelligent skeptics and realists in the financial media now more than ever.