I will be out of pocket when GDP gets released, so feel free to go to the official BEA release; use the comments below to update/discuss the actual GDP data points.
A few things to look for beyond the actual number: Corporate profits, PCE, and seasonal adjustments.
UPDATE: April 30, 2008 9:47am
If we ignore the real (inflation adjusted) factor, as we delve
deeper into the data, we see that Q1 spending (personal consumption
expenditures) rose just 1.0% versus 2.3% in Q4. This matches Q2 2001’s
How did the rest of the numbers look?
GDP increased 3.2% to an annualized $14.19 trillion (in current dollars);
Gross private domestic investment was down -0.7%;
Business fixed investment: -2.5%.
investment data actually accelerated downwards; the number -26.7% was
the biggest drop since 1981. (who keeps calling those Real Estate
Purchases of durable goods fell 6.1%
Q1 non-durables spending dropped 1.3%.
Business spending fell by 2.5%.
Investment in structures went down 6.2%.
Equipment and software outlays decreased 0.7%.
sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) fell
0.2%; final domestic sales (gross domestic product, excluding additions
to stocks and international trade) dropped
0.4%. THIS WAS THE FIRST DECLINE SINCE THE 1991 RECESSION.
A few positives: First-quarter spending rose 1.0%, Services gained
3.4% and exports rose by 5.5%. While local governments are struggling,
Uncle Sam remains profligate: Federal Government consumptions were
+4.6% versus State and Local Govt: +0.5%.
Also helping to keep nominal GDP in the green: Inventory builds. They rose slightly for the quarter by $1.8B, versus going down $18.3 billion in Q4. That contributed 0.81% to Q1 GDP, and without it, the Q would have been negative.
courtesy of Barron’s Econoday
GDP, Inflation & Recession
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2008
GDP, April 30, 2008