Another reputation, soon to be in tatters:
The White House’s top economist said he’s confident the U.S. economy hasn’t dipped into recession, and expressed optimism that stimulus checks could bolster growth in the current quarter, earlier than expected.
"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.
But the official declaration of a recession would likely be made after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. And Mr. Lazear said just two areas of the economy are showing the type of deterioration that the NBER would consider recession range: retail sales and manufacturing. NBER says a recession is marked by a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months and seen in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.
I’ll see if I can get the full piece posted . . .
Lazear Sees No Recession for U.S. Economy
HENRY J. PULIZZI and JOHN D. MCKINNON
WSJ May 7, 2008 8:08 p.m.